Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[JPhillips]

Um, I'm wondering if MBBF is intentionally leaving out pertinent information, or is he just reading sentences that support his position in saying the poll is wrong.

Or was he cutting and pasting without attribution?

[larrymcg421]

The electoral map looks pretty interesting now. Obama now seems like a very good bet to win Iowa and New Mexico. McCain is now making a good push in New Hampshire. If he steals that, and Obama takes Colorado and keeps all other Kerry states, we have a 269-269 tie.

[larrymcg421]

One thing I will say for the ABC News/WaPo poll is at least they release their full internals (even the DKos/Research 2000 poll does this). There's a Battleground tracking poll showing McCain with a 2 pt lead, but I see no sampling information. I'd like to know why they're getting different numbers from everyone else.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

McCain campaign responds to today's story in the New York Times............

http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainrepo...6-53c0c2d88376

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I'm a bit of a neophyte when it comes to futures markets and such, but Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight has an interesting post up about odd occurrences with the InTrade pricing.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Intrade Betting is Suspicious

Sounds like the same Nate Silver from BP. Is that him?

SI

[yacovfb]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Sounds like the same Nate Silver from BP. Is that him?

SI

Yes, that's him.

[digamma]

psssttt....if a poll shows more people polled said they would vote for you, it doesn't mean you are "leading" the race.

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

McCain campaign responds to today's story in the New York Times............

http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainrepo...6-53c0c2d88376

Didn't really respond, did he? Just yelled a bunch hoping no one would notice that there was no denial of the payments.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

More fun with polls. Obama up by 6 in latest FoxNews poll. The Dem/Rep breakdown is 41/34 in this poll, which accounts for the 3% difference in lead when compared to the Washington Post poll (had +10 weight to Dems). The average breakdown on election day is 37/33 in favor of the Dems, so this poll is also weighted a bit off from what it truly should be to mirror the electorate.

UMass Chaplain: Campaign for Obama, Get College Credits - America’s Election HQ

In other news, Biden and Obama voted twice to keep the 'Bridge to Nowhere' alive.......

Biden, Obama helped keep 'Bridge to Nowhere' alive - CNN.com

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

Didn't really respond, did he? Just yelled a bunch hoping no one would notice that there was no denial of the payments.

They said he received nothing after 2006. That's a pretty firm denial. You certainly won't see Obama raising this issue because he's got $3,900,000 reasons to keep quiet in that regard.

[yacovfb]

So it looks like McCain is suspending his campaign to go back to DC to work on the bailout bill. He wants the debate postponed. Kind of late to be doing this, since it's not like the economy just took the turn for the worst in the last day or two. Still, Obama will have to go along - it would way too much ammo for the Republicans if he pushes to have the debate stay when it is.

If only the first debate was on the economy instead of foreign policy...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by yacovfb

So it looks like McCain is suspending his campaign to go back to DC to work on the bailout bill. He wants the debate postponed. Kind of late to be doing this, since it's not like the economy just took the turn for the worst in the last day or two. Still, Obama will have to go along - it would way too much ammo for the Republicans if he pushes to have the debate stay when it is.

If only the first debate was on the economy instead of foreign policy...

I think the delay mainly has to do with the original assumption by the administration that something would pass relatively quickly. Now, with the debate over how the bailout should be structured or whether it's really needed, there's a real need to get all of Congress in-house to get these issues resolved.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Thank God McCain is heading back to solve this for us.

Sincerely,

Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank

[ace1914]

Originally Posted by yacovfb

So it looks like McCain is suspending his campaign to go back to DC to work on the bailout bill. He wants the debate postponed. Kind of late to be doing this, since it's not like the economy just took the turn for the worst in the last day or two. Still, Obama will have to go along - it would way too much ammo for the Republicans if he pushes to have the debate stay when it is.

If only the first debate was on the economy instead of foreign policy...

Very nice political move in my opinion. I can't wait to see how Obama camp responds.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by yacovfb

So it looks like McCain is suspending his campaign to go back to DC to work on the bailout bill. He wants the debate postponed. Kind of late to be doing this, since it's not like the economy just took the turn for the worst in the last day or two. Still, Obama will have to go along - it would way too much ammo for the Republicans if he pushes to have the debate stay when it is.

If only the first debate was on the economy instead of foreign policy...

If I'm Obama I'd agree to cancel but not postpone.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I have to admit to not getting the reference.

I'll take "Committee chairs who failed to fix the problem when it was happening but now claim they know how to fix it" for $200, Alex.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

More fun with polls. Obama up by 6 in latest FoxNews poll. The Dem/Rep breakdown is 41/34 in this poll, which accounts for the 3% difference in lead when compared to the Washington Post poll (had +10 weight to Dems). The average breakdown on election day is 37/33 in favor of the Dems, so this poll is also weighted a bit off from what it truly should be to mirror the electorate.

UMass Chaplain: Campaign for Obama, Get College Credits - America’s Election HQ

In other news, Biden and Obama voted twice to keep the 'Bridge to Nowhere' alive.......

Biden, Obama helped keep 'Bridge to Nowhere' alive - CNN.com

Your grasp of polling and statistics leaves a lot to be desired. In short, a 3 percent change in party ID does not mean a 3 percent change in voter preference.

[albionmoonlight]

John McCain != Bob Dole.

He will keep throwing hail marys until November 4th.

And, whatever happens, on November 5th* he can say that he is President or he can say that he fought as hard as he could and did not go gently into that good night.


*Or until the end of the inevitable litigation over 20,000 unclear ballots in Colorado filled in by people who somehow managed to make a federal case (literally) about their inability to clearly check one of two boxes.

[albionmoonlight]

dola--

FWIW, I think that this is 100% a political stunt by McCain and 0% because he thinks that he can actually solve the crisis.

And, as political stunts go, I think that it is a good one. Possibly a great one.

Of course, I thought the same thing about Palin . . .

McCain's internals must be painting a bleaker picture than the media polls that we have been seeing.

[JPhillips]

It's a decent stunt, but one that he's not set up well to capitalize on. The discussions that matter will be largely in committees and behind closed doors. There won't be a big floor fight as all of the details will get hashed out before a final bill is presented. There really isn't much for him to do at the moment.

It will play well today, but unless he plans on taking over the Senate Minority Leader job, I don't think this plays out very well for him.

[JPhillips]

This just released from Obama.

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared
principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress
and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a
proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator
Obama's call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The
two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

They said he received nothing after 2006. That's a pretty firm denial. You certainly won't see Obama raising this issue because he's got $3,900,000 reasons to keep quiet in that regard.

As I read it the NYT article was making the case that the $15K per month was to gain influence in a future McCain administration, which Goldfarb did not deny nor did he make a claim that the payments were for another reason. And the fact that Davis is currently on leave from the firm and not receiving income is irrelevant, as he will certainly return at some point. Instead he went with New York Times = Huffington Post defense.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There really isn't much for him to do at the moment.

Isn't he the ranking Republican on the Commerce Committee?

[JPhillips]

Now that I read McCain's statement he's calling for bypassing the committees and doing the negotiating with leadership, he and Obama, and the President. I wonder how that will play with the rest of Congress that's going to want a say in this.

[Flasch186]

Now this is just plain dumb from any camp. If anything it gives MORE of a reason to hold the debate....an issue is important. Putting the Partisanship aside would be nice in my world (although jonIMGA would think thats just silly) but the debate is actually one of the highlights of this campaign.

McCain seeks to delay debate to focus on economy

By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer 1 minute ago

NEW YORK - Republican John McCain said Wednesday he wants to delay Friday's debate with Democratic rival Barack Obama and temporarily put aside their partisan campaign to resolve the nation's financial crisis.

McCain's announcement came after the two candidates held private talks about joining forces to address the Wall Street meltdown. The Obama campaign said the Democrat initiated the talks, but McCain beat Obama to the punch with the first public statement calling for the two to rise above politics in a time of crisis.

McCain said the Bush administration's plan seemed headed for defeat and a bipartisan solution was urgently needed.

McCain said he would put politics aside and return to Washington Thursday to focus on the nation's financial problems after addressing former President Clinton's Global Initiative session in New York. McCain said he wants President Bush to convene a leadership meeting in Washington that would include him and Obama.

"It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the administration's proposal," McCain said. "I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time."

McCain said he has spoken to Obama about his plans and asked the Democratic presidential nominee to join him.

Obama's campaign did not immediate say whether he supported a delay of the debate or would also stop campaigning.

The Obama campaign said in a statement that Obama had called McCain around 8:30 a.m. Wednesday to propose that they issue a joint statement in support of a package to help fix the economy as soon as possible. McCain called back six hours later and agreed to the idea of the statement, the Obama campaign said. McCain's statement was issued to the media a few minutes later.

"We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved," McCain said. "I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so."

McCain said if Congress does not pass legislation to address the crisis, credit will dry up, people will no longer be able to buy homes, life savings will be at stake and businesses will not have enough money

"If we do not act, ever corner of our country will be impacted," McCain said. "We cannot allow this to happen."

McCain also canceled his planned appearance Wednesday on CBS' "Late Show With David Letterman" program.

[JPhillips]

What does "suspend" mean? The candidates were pretty much exclusively tied up in debate prep for the next two days anyway. Is McCain going to stop advertising?

[Flasch186]

LOLLERS

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/...lin_laura_bush

Laura Bush: Palin lacks foreign policy experience

1 hour, 19 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - First lady Laura Bush says Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin lacks sufficient foreign policy experience but is a very quick study.

In an interview Wednesday with CNN, the first lady remarked that it's fortunate that Republican presidential nominee John McCain has foreign policy experience himself.

Still, Mrs. Bush says she has a lot of confidence in Palin. She says the Alaska governor has a lot of good common sense, and the first lady adds that she is thrilled to have a chance to vote for Palin on the GOP ticket.

Mrs. Bush also said that she thinks Palin is being treated unfairly because she is a woman. That, the first lady says, is to be expected.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Now this is just plain dumb from any camp. If anything it gives MORE of a reason to hold the debate....an issue is important. Putting the Partisanship aside would be nice in my world (although jonIMGA would think thats just silly) but the debate is actually one of the highlights of this campaign.

That may be true, but postponing the debate to reach across the aisle to create a bi-partisan solution to the economic crisis will give major capital to whomever can take credit for it. The candidate will get the play the "unity" card and the "change" card (stopping the election process to fix the country) up until the election. Postponing the debate may not be necessary, but it is good (politically) to make us think that it is.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

If the report comes out and clears her, and Im in the McCain camp I use that as a springboard into the 'liberal media conspiracy' crap.

You say that as though there's some need for additional ammo for that particular issue.

that people cant even 'see or hear' the truth when it is found out, whatever the results.

And you say that as though virtually anyone actually gives a damn what she did or didn't do. Or even more shockingly, as though you believe the outcome - from one end of the spectrum to the other -- would influence more than a relative handful of votes. Any result can be spun by both sides. Believing otherwise is painfully naive, and I know good & well you're smarter than that. Make careful note, I said "believing". You certainly free to wish for anything you want in that regard, no harm in that as long as you have a grip on the reality of the situation too.

She could cure cancer & she's not going to draw votes from Obama supporters. She could rape drunken goats on home video & she's not going to send a significant number of voters running from McCain to Obama (although that might keep a few weak McCain's from turning out).

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

She could rape drunken goats on home video & she's not going to send a significant number of voters running from McCain to Obama (although that might keep a few weak McCain's from turning out).

Wouldn't this cause Democrats to run out and vote for McCain/Palin?

(ducks and runs)

[Flasch186]

and......

Obama likely to keep debate as McCain seeks delay

By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer 10 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Barack Obama's campaign says he is inclined to go ahead with Friday's presidential debate, even though rival John McCain is calling for a delay. McCain said Wednesday that he wants to stop all campaigning tomorrow and postpone the debate so they can work together on the financial crisis.

But Obama campaign officials say the senator is inclined to move ahead.

McCain said the Bush administration's plan seemed headed for defeat and a bipartisan solution was urgently needed.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by BrianD

That may be true, but postponing the debate to reach across the aisle to create a bi-partisan solution to the economic crisis will give major capital to whomever can take credit for it. The candidate will get the play the "unity" card and the "change" card (stopping the election process to fix the country) up until the election. Postponing the debate may not be necessary, but it is good (politically) to make us think that it is.

This may be naive, but how does not debating Friday night help the economy?

[BrianD]

So is that a good or bad response for Obama? On the one hand, always going against what your opponent wants tends to be a good thing. On the other hand, will this be spun to say that he is more interested in getting elected than in fixing the country?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This may be naive, but how does not debating Friday night help the economy?

In reality, it probably doesn't. If candidates can get the public to think that spending time not campaigning and debating but instead sitting around a table hammering out details is a better use of time...

[JPhillips]

I understand the politics, but if it's empty of substance isn't it, by definition, a political stunt?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This may be naive, but how does not debating Friday night help the economy?

I gather (after reading a longer form article on the subject) that it's ostensibly to allow the two Senators to be more involved in the negotiations over the final bailout bill.

[ace1914]

Obama can't allow McCain to run his campaign, though.

[ISiddiqui]

Obama must want to put a muzzle on Rendell:

McCain Seeks to Delay First Debate Amid Financial Crisis - NYTimes.com

“What, does McCain think the Senate will still be working at 9 p.m. Friday?” Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania said in an interview, referring to the scheduled start time of the debate.

If the bill isn't done by 9 PM on Friday, I kinda want the Senate to still be working!

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola--

FWIW, I think that this is 100% a political stunt by McCain and 0% because he thinks that he can actually solve the crisis.

And, as political stunts go, I think that it is a good one. Possibly a great one.

Of course, I thought the same thing about Palin . . .

McCain's internals must be painting a bleaker picture than the media polls that we have been seeing.

+1

I think it could backfire, because it's transparent as hell.

[kaosfere]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think it could backfire, because it's transparent as hell.

It is incredibly transparent, but it does two crucial things:

It snaps the latest news cycle about his plummeting poll ratings, and it's a pre-emptive strike against any attempts to put him to a strong question about his shortcomings on the economic front.

By taking this action, and attempting to postpone the debate, he's hoping to avoid having any attention paid to "The Fundamentals of Our Economy are Strong" and whether or not he or his campaign director are lying when they say he hasn't been getting $15,000 a month from Freddie Mac at a time when American eyes are strictly focused on the economy.

(Because, really, what has changed between now and this time last week, except for a 9ish point slide in McCain's national polling numbers?)

It was a crafty play, too, in that there is no simple way for Obama to deflect it without looking like the bad guy in the eyes of many, who won't understand what little difference it makes to negotiations whether or not two senators are on a debate stage at 9pm on a Friday night.

The best response the Obama camp could come out with, IMO, is to insist that they remain firm that the debate take place, but that "in this time of extreme crisis, it is even more critical that the American people know how the two candidates before them are able to handle the economic challenges we face, and now is a better time than ever before to do it."

Pivot the debate right back to substantive issues, especially ones that are a weakness for their opponent, and away from political grandstanding, since they've been undermined on that front.

(Also, how are you the first person I end up repling to when I decide to dip my toe outside FOOL waters on this forum? heh.)

[ace1914]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

+1

I think it could backfire, because it's transparent as hell.

Yep. McCain keeps grasping for straws imo.

McCain has been man-handled these last couple of weeks. With the economy coming forward and the "Palin effect" wearing off, its becoming mano y mano, and he's getting handled. Biden needs to stick to the stump speeches, though.

[ISiddiqui]

The best response the Obama camp could come out with, IMO, is to insist that they remain firm that the debate take place, but that "in this time of extreme crisis, it is even more critical that the American people know how the two candidates before them are able to handle the economic challenges we face, and now is a better time than ever before to do it."

Only problem with that is that the debate is on foreign policy. Now if he says something like we should change the debate to the economy (though neither are really prepared for that), he could take it away from McCain.

[kaosfere]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Only problem with that is that the debate is on foreign policy. Now if he says something like we should change the debate to the economy (though neither are really prepared for that), he could take it away from McCain.

That is precisely what I was implying but didn't make explicit, yes. Seems like a key point to say, "Ok, rather than keeping the American people in the dark, let's talk about something that matters right now."

Relevant snap poll from SurveyUSA: SurveyUSA News Poll #14454

10% of respondents say they think the debate should be suspended, 36% think it should be refocused on the economy. 46% say a debate not happening on Friday would be "bad for America".

Rapid response polling, take with grain of salt, etc.

[BrianD]

A political ad combining the debate postponing request and the bipartisan committee to "fix the economy" and including Obama's refusal to postpone the debate (with implied refusal of the committee as well) could have some effect. Much harder to create a political ad discussing how the debate and the committee aren't really related...and make it understandable to the average voter.

[Deattribution]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

and......

I think stuff like this shows Obama isn't really sure how to handle this yet, and by sending out feelers like this he can see what the initial reaction is then completely deny it was ever his plan to do so if it's negative.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

You say that as though there's some need for additional ammo for that particular issue.




And you say that as though virtually anyone actually gives a damn what she did or didn't do. Or even more shockingly, as though you believe the outcome - from one end of the spectrum to the other -- would influence more than a relative handful of votes. Any result can be spun by both sides. Believing otherwise is painfully naive, and I know good & well you're smarter than that. Make careful note, I said "believing". You certainly free to wish for anything you want in that regard, no harm in that as long as you have a grip on the reality of the situation too.

She could cure cancer & she's not going to draw votes from Obama supporters. She could rape drunken goats on home video & she's not going to send a significant number of voters running from McCain to Obama (although that might keep a few weak McCain's from turning out).

Yup. Its a battle for the middle 20%. As one wag put it, 40% of Americans would vote for Hitler over Ghandi depending on the party identification (heck, I think Jon might )

[ISiddiqui]

One must say that McCain being the Republican nominee definitely makes the race far more interesting than any other Republican running for President. Not necessarily because McCain is running closer than any other Republican who was running, but could you imagine Romney or Huckabee doing this?

It probably is more political than not (though McCain may actually believe they need him down there in Washington), but it could be a great political move. We'll have to see.

[Big Fo]

David Letterman on McCain asking for the debate to be delayed:

David Letterman tells audience that McCain called him today to tell him he had to rush back to DC to deal with the economy.

Then in the middle of the taping Dave got word that McCain was, in fact just down the street being interviewed by Katie Couric. Dave even cut over to the live video of the interview, and said, "Hey Senator, can I give you a ride home?"

Earlier in the show, Dave kept saying, "You don't suspend your campaign. This doesn't smell right. This isn't the way a tested hero behaves." And he joked: "I think someone's putting something in his metamucil."

"He can't run the campaign because the economy is cratering? Fine, put in your second string quarterback, Sara Palin. Where is she?"

"What are you going to do if you're elected and things get tough? Suspend being president? We've got a guy like that now!"

So awesome

[Buccaneer]

Inside the campaigns today:

McCain: I'm suspending our campaign starting now
McCain's People: Shit...wtf???...you're doing what??
McCain: No deal, no debate either.
McCain's People: Shit...wtf???...you said what???

meanwhile...

Obama: Ummm....hi
Obama's People: McCain is suspending. What do you want to do?
Obama: I don't know. What do you think we should do?
Obama's People: I don't know, what do you think?
Obama: Let's do nothing and see what happens.
Obama's People: Cool, that's change we can count on.

[larrymcg421]

I think it was a good political move except for adding in the postponing of the debate. Obama could put himself in a great position by agreeing to work on a bipartisan solution for the crisis, but insisting the debates continue. This could make it look like McCain is afraid of debating Obama.