10-26-2020, 09:01 PM | #5151 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I'll feel pretty stupid too if that happens, but I will own it. Don't see it happening though. Virtually all the evidence for literally almost four years now - and a lot more than that on the reliability of modern polling in general - points the other direction.
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10-26-2020, 09:17 PM | #5152 | |
assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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Quote:
That's a pretty impressive prognostication 16 (or 20?) years before the election. I think Frank'll be fine with those sorts of skills. |
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10-26-2020, 09:20 PM | #5153 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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So SCOTUS issued a ruling tonight that late arriving votes in Wisconsin, even if postmarked by election day, won't be counted.
Kavanaugh in his opinion cited Bush v. Gore, which when it was issued, was expressly stated not to be precedent, and only apply to the specific circumstance of that election.
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
10-26-2020, 10:07 PM | #5154 |
assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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Honestly, Barrett's acceptance speech of the SCOTUS nomination was pretty good. I think she hit the right notes.
I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt until her record demonstrates otherwise. Or, you know, I might just be putting lipstick on a pig because I didn't get a vote in the process and just have to live with the outcome however it turns out. |
10-27-2020, 06:38 AM | #5155 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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10-27-2020, 07:26 AM | #5156 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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The "under 40" piece is definitely ringing true in my heavily under-40 FB feed. (Lots of former YL kids.) I'm seeing a ton of "never voted before...thought it didn't matter...liked being a rebel.....that was my white privilege" type stuff.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 10-27-2020 at 08:56 AM. |
10-27-2020, 08:53 AM | #5157 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Biden at 88 today at 538. I think this is the first time he hit 88? Maybe got there for a bit then dropped back quickly.
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Why choose failure when success is an option? |
10-27-2020, 09:08 AM | #5158 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Someone suggested that he wants to design a "sophisticated model" for election forecasting that simply takes all of the other major models and gives the underdog about a 10% greater chance of winning than they do.
That way, if the favorite wins, then you were right b/c you predicted the favorite. But if the underdog wins, then you were right b/c you gave the underdog the best chance of all the major models. |
10-27-2020, 09:54 AM | #5159 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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I was chuckling this morning as I read that trump tweeted out that people who want can go back to the polling place and ask for a new ballot to change their votes, because....wait for it......IT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF YOUR LIFE!!!
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He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam Last edited by PilotMan : 10-27-2020 at 09:55 AM. |
10-27-2020, 09:58 AM | #5160 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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It is funny to speculate as to what happens.
His people are, very gently, starting to prep him for a loss. Explaining that it isn't his fault. Your debate was awesome, sir. You did great. But it is the fault of the Democrat Party and early voting. People voted for Biden before they saw your awesome debate, sir. And now they want to change their ballots to vote for you, but they can't. |
10-27-2020, 10:00 AM | #5161 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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He also pulled out the 2016 line "what the hell do you have to lose" by voting for him. Probably not the line to use this year.
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10-27-2020, 10:51 AM | #5162 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
I've wondered that for a while about 538. The Economist model is much more confident in a Biden victory. |
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10-27-2020, 10:55 AM | #5163 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I think 538 earned their reputation as the go-to when they were right on every state I think two cycles ago, or maybe it was 49, and then were basically the only model who thought Trump had a significant chance in 2016. Almost everyone was else was at 99%+ for Hillary and 538 was taking a lot of criticism by them ... until the election happened. The track record indicates to me that their approach is sounder than the others.
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10-27-2020, 11:22 AM | #5164 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
It is funny seeing him go back to the well for 2016 lines that really don't play well coming from an incumbent. Even MAGA, which they tried to transition to Keep America Great, they had to scrap and go back to MAGA, which sounds pretty stupid coming from someone who's already had 4 years to make us great again.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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10-27-2020, 02:47 PM | #5165 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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So I'm curious, is there anyone here who thinks (not wants) Trump will win? The polls are wrong and don't reflect what is really happening right now. the silent majority, more conservatives wanting to stay in power than anyone ever predicted, etc
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
10-27-2020, 02:51 PM | #5166 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
I think there's a slim chance he gets it close enough that a stacked Supreme Court hands him the election. Check out the awful ruling Kavanaugh wrote on Wisconsin ballots. He cited research that said the exact opposite of his ruling and walked the GOP line in his statements. It's laying the ground work to stop ballot counting. |
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10-27-2020, 03:00 PM | #5167 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
Yeah I do think he goes to the Supreme Court no matter how much he loses by. But more of what I was asking here is that basically everyone who wants Biden to win wrong about how many people are going to vote for Trumo? And yes Kavanaugh should be ashamed he wrote that
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
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10-27-2020, 03:05 PM | #5168 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
The way Nate Silver put it: Biden is up by about 5 points in the tipping point state (PA) 2 of the last 10 elections have had polling errors > 5 points There's a 50/50 chance that that polling error could go Trump's way. So half of a 20% chance is a 10% chance. So I think that it is more likely than not that Biden will win. But 10% is a decent chance. Flip a coin three times. If you get three heads in a row, you've done it. Put in those terms, it does not seem that unlikely. |
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10-27-2020, 05:09 PM | #5169 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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After an hour and a half in line, my wife and I voted. So glad to have gotten it done. I gave up on the idea it was ever going to get faster. Three weeks in, it hasn't.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
10-27-2020, 05:29 PM | #5170 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Kavanaugh proved the "originalism" and "federalist" crap they spew is complete nonsense. They don't believe in any of that shit. |
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10-27-2020, 05:34 PM | #5171 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Technically Kavanaugh never believed in that stuff. He's always been of the imperial Presidency mindset (which is why he appealed so much to Trump).
Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
10-27-2020, 05:39 PM | #5172 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: PDX
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It's absurd how hard it is to vote in such a supposedly great Democracy. Doubly ridiculous that one of our two parties is constantly trying to only make it harder, and frustrating that it somehow serves to convince GOP true believers that they are the repressed & silent majority.
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Last edited by thesloppy : Today at 05:35 PM. Last edited by thesloppy : 10-27-2020 at 05:40 PM. |
10-27-2020, 05:42 PM | #5173 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: San Diego via Sausalito via San Jose via San Diego
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Quote:
This is where I think we should be more like the French and start having general strikes.
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I'm no longer a Chargers fan, they are dead to me Coming this summer to a movie theater near you: The Adventures of Jedikooter: Part 4 |
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10-27-2020, 06:01 PM | #5174 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: PDX
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Yeah, if we had sane leadership I would think this pandemic would have been the perfect time to implement some kind of national vote-by-mail mandate, but somehow we're going to come out of this extended election crisis having only made the system a little bit worse.
The multitude of folks' stories waiting hours in bad weather are so frustrating (though also inspiring). I've trumpeted a dozen times that I live in Oregon, which has been voting by mail since last millennium, and it took me 10 seconds to vote, only because I chose to drop off my ballot at the nearby election office and someone walked up to the drop-box right before me.
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Last edited by thesloppy : Today at 05:35 PM. Last edited by thesloppy : 10-27-2020 at 06:06 PM. |
10-27-2020, 06:43 PM | #5175 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Newbury, England
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Quote:
TBH I can’t get my head around how difficult people seem to have made it to vote over there
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'A song is a beautiful lie', Idlewild, Self Healer. When you're smiling, the whole world smiles with you. Sports! |
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10-27-2020, 07:18 PM | #5176 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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It depends on whether your state is competitive in presidential elections or not, I think. My state is is not, I vote every election - usually a couple a year - and I've never waited in a line. Less than 5 minutes in and out. And this is one of 2 or 3 fastest growing states in the country. It's not difficult, unless there's an effort to suppress.
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10-27-2020, 07:47 PM | #5177 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
You have to suppress if your ideas are wildly unpopular. |
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10-27-2020, 09:07 PM | #5178 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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The USPS delays are as bad as they've been all year.
Shocking that's how things are working out.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-27-2020, 09:24 PM | #5179 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I wasn't thinking and I ordered some eBay stuff last week and it's still not here yet SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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10-27-2020, 09:33 PM | #5180 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
It is nuts. Closed on a house on 9/30. Put in an address forward the next day. We have received 1 piece of forwarded mail.
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Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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10-27-2020, 10:20 PM | #5181 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: PDX
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Th GOP is going to actively kneecap the USPS and then use the resulting inefficiencies as an excuse to tear it down entirely.
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Last edited by thesloppy : Today at 05:35 PM. |
10-28-2020, 07:10 AM | #5182 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Nov 2014
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I've had something in transit since the 17th. It was shipped out on the 7th.
It was a priority package. |
10-28-2020, 09:07 AM | #5183 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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S&P down ~2% again.
COVID cases setting records. The timing really isn't working out so good for the GOP. They aren't even competent enough to artificially pump things up in October. You know thing are bad when you can't even construct a Potemkin Village for 2 weeks. |
10-28-2020, 09:10 AM | #5184 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
My brain ignored the letters you put and shouted "POKEMON VILLAGE!" into my head. |
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10-28-2020, 09:19 AM | #5185 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Getting too anxious leading up to this election. It sucks because I never cared so much before.
If Trump wins, I am going to have to disconnect from the world except video games and softball tournaments. I won't want to hear about all of the crazy shit he's doing after winning re-election.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
10-28-2020, 09:22 AM | #5186 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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And given how crazy softball is, that's saying something, lol.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
10-28-2020, 09:51 AM | #5187 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Trump's gonna lose because he surrendered to the virus.
Quote:
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-28-2020, 10:04 AM | #5188 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Biden was up 56-39 overall in that Washington Post Wisconsin poll. Not sure I buy that but there's another poll from Marquette law school coming out today to compare.
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10-28-2020, 10:28 AM | #5189 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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How to rig an election.
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10-28-2020, 10:33 AM | #5190 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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The hope is that word got out and people started using drop boxes and in person.
Of all of Trump's mistakes, loudly announcing "I'M GONNA BLOCK THE MAIL" instead of just doing it may be his biggest. |
10-28-2020, 10:35 AM | #5191 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Looks like they are blocking it. The lawsuit posts the delivery rates in many areas and it is clear that there are certain areas they are drastically slowing the mail down to. |
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10-28-2020, 11:02 AM | #5192 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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PA had no drop boxes that I could figure out. It was either go to the courthouse for some stupid version of early voting or it was mail in.
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10-28-2020, 11:13 AM | #5193 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Pennsylvania only really comes into play if we don't have a winner on Nov. 3, right?
If Biden wins FL on Nov. 3 it's over. Let's hope we don't get to the point of needing Pennsylvania.
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Why choose failure when success is an option? Last edited by spleen1015 : 10-28-2020 at 11:23 AM. |
10-28-2020, 11:21 AM | #5194 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Pennsylvania is the most important state. Florida is going to be a mess regardless.
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10-28-2020, 11:45 AM | #5195 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Trump's chances of winning are something like 2% if he loses Pennsylvania while Biden would still have a 55% chance of winning if he loses it.
If Pennsylvania or Florida go to Biden the election is pretty much over and Biden has a lead just large enough to overcome a 2016 level polling error in Pennsylvania. |
10-28-2020, 11:46 AM | #5196 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
If he loses PA, I think he's fine as long as he wins NC. He has to lose both of those to be in serious trouble imho.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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10-28-2020, 11:56 AM | #5197 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Yeah, that's my take as well. If Biden gets NC/MI/WI, it's going to be difficult for Trump to win. If he gets FL or PA, he might get north of 350.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
10-28-2020, 12:01 PM | #5198 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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How likely is it that he wins NC though? I feel like that state has been teetering on the edge of going full blown blue like Virginia has for a few years now. But it was a fairly solid Trump state, so I feel like they're teasing me.
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My listening habits |
10-28-2020, 12:04 PM | #5199 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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538 says 50.5% Biden, 48.8% Trump. So just north of a coin-flip basically, a very real possibility.
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10-28-2020, 12:06 PM | #5200 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Virginia had the fast-growing DC suburbs to push it rapidly blue.
NC does not have that, so if it goes blue, it might be more of the Colorado route where it lives as purple for a while. |
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