2009 MLB Regular Season Thread

[RedKingGold]

Wow, what a defensive mistake by Granderson.

[Balldog]

WTF Granderson.

He is so overrated defensively.

[Balldog]

Whew, Tigers survive basically two errors in the 9th. 6-5 win.

[RedKingGold]

Whew. Gotta love that the Phillies can make a 3-run lead feel like a nail-biter. Town is celebrating as if we won the World Series again.

At this point, I'll take my division title and run, k thanx.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Good to see the Tigers pull that one out. All they need to do now is win one of the next two against the Twins and they are in excellent shape.

[Big Fo]

Chipper grounds into a double play, one out from a loss and Colorado just took a one run lead in the sixth. C'mon McCann.

edit: Pop out, Braves lose 5-4

[RedKingGold]

w00t! One more to go!

[larrymcg421]

Milwaukee with a huge comeback in the top of the 9th on a Jason Kendall 3 run HR. It is now tied in the bottom of the 9th. If they can pull this off, the Braves are still in good shape.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Balldog

WTF Granderson.

He is so overrated defensively.

Because he made one bad play?????

I can't recall a play he's botched like that in forever (or at all).

You seem to have a lot of Tiger hate. But that's ok.

[ThunderingHERD]

Why does the Rockies' mascot always sit right behind home plate? It's really distracting.

[Balldog]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Because he made one bad play?????

I can't recall a play he's botched like that in forever (or at all).

You seem to have a lot of Tiger hate. But that's ok.

Uh no, I've watched him the last couple years struggle reading balls off the bat and barely make what should've been a routine play. He reminds me of Ryan Freel, can't read the ball off the bat and ends up making routine plays look like great plays. Many around here consider him a to be a gold glove caliber defender, I don't see it.

I say Granderson is overrated and I don't think Porcello will win the ROY so I have a lot of Tiger hate? Interesting, since I'm not a homer and look at my team with open eyes I'm a hater.

[Balldog]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Good to see the Tigers pull that one out. All they need to do now is win one of the next two against the Twins and they are in excellent shape.

Hopefully they can clinch before the last game of the season so Verlander can skip that game and pitch Game 1 vs Yankees.

[fantom1979]

I don't know a great way of using stats for defense, but Granderson is 2nd among AL outfielders in putouts, and only has 3 errors. He is listed 8th among outfielders for range factor per game. I know that those aren't great stats (the Tigers pitching might just give up more fly balls than average, and errors is a very subjective category), but it seems that Granderson gets to a lot of balls.

[Balldog]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

I don't know a great way of using stats for defense, but Granderson is 2nd among AL outfielders in putouts, and only has 3 errors. He is listed 8th among outfielders for range factor per game. I know that those aren't great stats (the Tigers pitching might just give up more fly balls than average, and errors is a very subjective category), but it seems that Granderson gets to a lot of balls.

Stats generally don't tell the whole story, you have to watch him...he generally struggles to get a good read off the bat. Also plays like last night don't count as an "error".

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Balldog

Interesting, since I'm not a homer and look at my team with open eyes I'm a hater.

Um, have you not met Schmidty before?

[RomaGoth]

Indians fire their manager, Wedge. Effective at the end of the season.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Indians fire their manager, Wedge. Effective at the end of the season.

Get clear, Wedge. You can't do any more good back there!

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Get clear, Wedge. You can't do any more good back there!

Sorry!

[fantom1979]

[Mr. Sparkle]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

Why does the Rockies' mascot always sit right behind home plate? It's really distracting.

That shit is so fucking annoying. It needs to be stopped.

[Big Fo]

Granderson didn't look very good on that fly ball. Talk about not getting a good read off the bat.

[Balldog]

Another blunder by Granderson in the field, luckily it didn't cost them.

[Balldog]

Wow Inge has been on fire the last couple games!

[RomaGoth]

Nice snag by Polanco (yeah a little late)..

[molson]

Kind of a hilarious lineup the Red Sox put out tonight, one day after they clinched the Wild Card:

J Gathright CF
J Reddick LF
C Kotchman 1B
D Ortiz DH
R Baldelli RF
G Kottaras C
A Gonzalez SS
J Lowrie 3B
C Woodward 2B

Not surprisingly, no hits against Halladay through 4.

[JonInMiddleGA]

5-0 Marlins in the 6th, Braves have just two hits off of Nolasco so far & he's struck out a dozen already.

[SirFozzie]

Baldelli's now moved to third base.

I expect high comedy.

The sox have 1 hit in the 7th, which is one more then I expected from a lineup of (Gathright/Reddick/Kotchman/(ORTIZ)/Baldelli/Kottaras/Gonzalez/Lowrie/Woodard)

That's not even a B-team Spring Training lineup..

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

I don't know a great way of using stats for defense, but Granderson is 2nd among AL outfielders in putouts, and only has 3 errors. He is listed 8th among outfielders for range factor per game. I know that those aren't great stats (the Tigers pitching might just give up more fly balls than average, and errors is a very subjective category), but it seems that Granderson gets to a lot of balls.

FWIW, UZR has him at slightly above average this year, 25th among 64 eligible OF'ers, and well below average, 49th among 63 eligible OF'ers last year.

Red Sox trying to steal the Cy Young from Greinke and give it to Halladay , although Joey Gathright did break up the no-hitter at least.

[Dr. Sak]

Looks like Charlie's talk had a bit of an effect!

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Looks like Charlie's talk had a bit of an effect!

Originally Posted by Charle Manuel

"The mountain didn't come to Mohammed, did it? What happened? He had to go to the mountain. He had to take it."

[RedKingGold]

Can Brad Lidge hold a 7-run lead with two outs? Oh the drama!

Over/under: He gives up two runs. Probably at least one homer.

[Dr. Sak]

NL EAST CHAMPS!

[larrymcg421]

Oh, you've got to be fucking kidding me!

What the fuck was Matt Diaz thinking?

[Dr. Sak]

1 pitch

[larrymcg421]

Fuck fuck fuck, that just sucked so hard.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just read the pbp & the AJC blog and now know how the Braves game (and basically season) ended. Good f'n grief.

In the end, an appropriate finish for the Braves, who sealed their fate when they got swept by the Reds. When it comes down to it, this is a mediocre team that overachieved by staying mathematically alive this long and seems just as likely to go 70-92 next year as they are to win 86 again.

edit to add: And if this was, as expected, Vazquez last appearance as a Brave, I gotta give him credit for doing not only what they signed him to do (eat innings) but for being the team's best pitcher for the whole season which is more than I expected.

[Big Fo]

Fuck baseball. And my NFL team is already dead too. At least there's soccer and the NBA is starting up soon.

[RedKingGold]

I forgot how much I missed HK calling games until the Phils clinched tonight.

[ThunderingHERD]

When it comes down to it, this is a mediocre team that overachieved by staying mathematically alive this long and seems just as likely to go 70-92 next year as they are to win 86 again.

The Braves current lineup and rotation is NOT a mediocre team. They've actually been the best team in the NL by a fairly wide margin since all of the mid-season roster changes. Even given their poor start thanks to a bunch of everyday players who are no longer around or no longer playing (Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francouer, Kelly Johnson, Casey Kotchman) they still trail only Philadelphia (barely) and Los Angeles in run differential. They also have winning records against all three division winners.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

The Braves current lineup and rotation is NOT a mediocre team. They've actually been the best team in the NL by a fairly wide margin since all of the mid-season roster changes. Even given their poor start thanks to a bunch of everyday players who are no longer around or no longer playing (Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francouer, Kelly Johnson, Casey Kotchman) they still trail only Philadelphia (barely) and Los Angeles in run differential. They also have winning records against all three division winners.

There's no legit everyday 3B at this point, the rotation declines sharply when they salary dump Vazquez (because it'd take a miracle to find a buyer for Lowe or Kawakami at their current contract), the OF is still a work in progress (or regress) at this point, McCann disappointed although overuse in the 2nd half may have contributed to that, and it's unlikely that Prado, Infante, and Diaz all three equal or better their outputs this year. And I have little doubt that LaRoche will end up resigned at too large a price after a good run and turn back into the pillar of inconsistency that's become his hallmark.

I see very little reason to expect them to be better, or even as good, next year than they were this year. Granted, I fully expected a 100 loss season in '09 so they overachieved and that's great. But that doesn't make them any better than mediocre in a league filled with mediocrity at best.

[ThunderingHERD]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

There's no legit everyday 3B at this point, the rotation declines sharply when they salary dump Vazquez (because it'd take a miracle to find a buyer for Lowe or Kawakami at their current contract), the OF is still a work in progress (or regress) at this point, McCann disappointed although overuse in the 2nd half may have contributed to that, and it's unlikely that Prado, Infante, and Diaz all three equal or better their outputs this year. And I have little doubt that LaRoche will end up resigned at too large a price after a good run and turn back into the pillar of inconsistency that's become his hallmark.

Now you're talking about next year, not this year. It's really not hard to go down ANY team's lineup with a critical eye and say "I don't think he's going to play well next year." Basically you're assuming that any player who played above their previous level is going to play worse next year, and any player who played below their previous level is also going to play worse next year. As for the specific case you mention:

Prado: he put up an .838 OPS last year. His OPS is .818 this year. What makes you think he's in line for a big drop off?

Same for Infante, last year: .755, this year: .737 (and he's a bench utility guy, so it seems strange to single him out).

Brian McCann's career OPS is .856, this year it was .844--not exactly a big disappointment.

Diaz: he had an exceptionally poor 2008, but he struggled with injuries and only played in 43 games. In 2006/2007 his OPS was .838/.865, this year it's .884--not a huge difference.

Chipper is a concern but even at his current level he's still a 3rd baseman with a ~.400 OBP. I don't think you can really pronounce him dead yet, though, as he had a similar year in 2004 and followed it up with 4 of the best years of his career.

As for the contracts, Kawakami has played up to his contract value (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...25&position=P), even having been removed from the rotation through no fault of his own. I don't see how you can be sorely disappointed in a starter with a 3.8 ERA. If the Braves do move Vazquez it won't be a "salary dump." I'm all in favor of them selling high on him if they're able to get some pieces for next year or even good prospects.

And the outfield is fine. Even though his numbers are slightly down from his previous two seasons, McLouth's production is still above average for a CF. Diaz production is good, and the Braves have the #1 prospect in baseball ready to play RF next year. If that doesn't work out you can plug Ryan Church in and it would certainly be an improvement over Anderson this year, who is only playing by virtue of Bobby Cox being incompetent.

Granted, I fully expected a 100 loss season in '09 so they overachieved and that's great. But that doesn't make them any better than mediocre in a league filled with mediocrity at best.

They may have overachieved relative to your very wrong projections. They didn't overachieve relative to their talent level as their Pyth. W/L would have them in the wild card. I don't have a crystal ball, and it's entirely possible that every player on the team plays like shit next year and the team tanks--but it's no more likely to happen to this team than it is to any other.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Prado: he put up an .838 OPS last year. His OPS is .818 this year. What makes you think he's in line for a big drop off?

I'll concede this one a bit, his total AB's this season actually turned out to be higher than I thought they were & that reduces my level of concern with him.

Same for Infante, last year: .755, this year: .737 (and he's a bench utility guy, so it seems strange to single him out).

I single him out because he's as a legit a starter as half their current lineup, regardless of how he's been used to date.

Brian McCann's career OPS is .856, this year it was .844--not exactly a big disappointment.

It is if you expected continued improvement instead of the apparent plateau. He's still a darned good catcher, but I didn't believe he had topped out.

Diaz: he had an exceptionally poor 2008, but he struggled with injuries and only played in 43 games. In 2006/2007 his OPS was .838/.865, this year it's .884--not a huge difference.

And, like a good portion of the lineup, he's a part-time player. I really really like Diaz, even with tonight's boner, but he is what he is.

Chipper is a concern but even at his current level he's still a 3rd baseman with a ~.400 OBP. I don't think you can really pronounce him dead yet, though,

Dude hasn't been healthy in 6 years, has a huge dropoff this season, will turn 38 next April, and hasn't talked about anything so much as retirement for the past month. Dead? All that's missing is the burial.

As for the contracts, Kawakami has played up to his contract value (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...25&position=P), even having been removed from the rotation through no fault of his own.

Didn't say I was disappointed with him, and not for a minute have I blamed him for the move to the bullpen. But him at the back of the rotation vs Vazquez at the top is not a fair trade.

If the Braves do move Vazquez it won't be a "salary dump."

Now that part is absolute unadulterated bullshit. Someone has to go because they don't appear willing to pay a legit top of the rotation guy if it means they have to grossly overpay Hudson, Lowe, or Kenshin to pitch out of the bullpen. Maybe they'll make the right call & let Hudson go instead but I don't have any confidence that'll happen.
I'm all in favor of them selling high on him if they're able to get some pieces for next year or even good prospects.

And the outfield is fine. Even though his numbers are slightly down from his previous two seasons, McLouth's production is still above average for a CF. Diaz production is good, and the Braves have the #1 prospect in baseball ready to play RF next year. If that doesn't work out you can plug Ryan Church in and it would certainly be an improvement over Anderson this year, who is only playing by virtue of Bobby Cox being incompetent.

McLouth "above average"? Not this year. 6th of 11 qualifying CF's in the NL in OPS, 7th of 11 in OBP, 5th of 11 in SLG. He's the current definition of average (sorry as I am to say that)

Diaz is fine on the whole & I can live with the guy if for no reason other than I find him pretty likable, but as for Church being an improvement over Anderson (who is downright f'n painful to watch), the reality is that the difference in their OPS is .721 to .718 and given his usage down the stretch (again, unless he's still injured & I just can't find any mention of it online) I'll be quite surprised if he's even in the organization when they break camp next spring.

And then there's the looming spectre of the complete fuckitude of the waste of space & salary that is Terry Pendleton being named as Cox's successor. Might be the one thing that actually makes Bobby's decision making look good by comparison, as Pendleton has turned into a guy who couldn't lead starving dogs to fresh meat.

Yeah, I'm just overfuckingjoyed at the future.

[ISiddiqui]

As a Mets fan, there is nothing I'd like more than the Braves to name Terry Pendleton as manager .

[ThunderingHERD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2009&month=0

McLouth has been slightly above average this year and projections will surely have him doing better next year. Ryan Church's offensive numbers were similar to Anderson's this year, but he's a much better defensive player and would be an upgrade. Even if Chipper doesn't rebound that doesn't mean the Braves have a weakness at third base--he's about league average. They didn't need him to carry the offense this year and there's no reason to expect they'll need him to carry the offense next year.

What exactly makes Diaz a "part-time player"? He's played full time in the second half and is posting the best numbers of his career. Even if you include last year's injury-plagued season he's put up .317/.363/.467 over the past 4 year and played average defense. How are those numbers not good enough to start?

As for a "salary dump" I guess that's just a matter of your definition. I don't consider it a salary dump to move a guy if you have 6 players for 5 spots. Assuming that the Braves are going to hold on to Hanson and Jurrjens, Vazquez looks like the only guy you'd be able to get anything substantial for. It certainly makes no sense for the Braves to keep all 6 and end up with a long reliever making $8+ million when you could use that money to sign, say, a first baseman.

Oh, and the latest buzz is that Frank Wren wants to go outside of the organization to find Cox's replacement in an effort to further distinguish things from the Scheurholz era. Who knows how that will change over the next year, though.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2009&month=0

Perhaps, but does that also take into account the number of games he played while the moon was in the 11th house? Good frickin' grief, throw enough numbers at something & we'll eventually find a category that nearly every player in the league could be above average at.

Ryan Church's ... would be an upgrade.

Only if they intend to play him.

Even if Chipper doesn't rebound that doesn't mean the Braves have a weakness at third base--he's about league average.

So he's 13th out of 22 but that's "about league average". But McLouth being 11th out of 25 makes him "above average"? That's convenient spin.

What exactly makes Diaz a "part-time player"?

The absence of a season where he got 400 AB's is a pretty good definition. Yeah, he got hot & Cox played him for a couple of months. But that doesn't prove he's a 150 game a year starter, not until he does it. It isn't whether his number for 2 months are good enough to start, it's whether those number hold up over a full season.

As for a "salary dump" I guess that's just a matter of your definition. I don't consider it a salary dump to move a guy if you have 6 players for 5 spots.

It is when you're dumping the most valuable one of the group in order to avoid eating a worse contract.

Oh, and the latest buzz is that Frank Wren wants to go outside of the organization to find Cox's replacement in an effort to further distinguish things from the Scheurholz era.

Frank will do whatever his boss tells him to do if he'd like to have a job. Lemme see here, who would that boss be, hmm, can't think of his name right now but I'm sure it will come to me.

Look, you want to be optimistic about this team, knock yourself out. I just don't see it, if anything they'll be lucky to tread water.

[ThunderingHERD]

Only if they intend to play him.

Fair enough. Ideally they won't have to play him with Heyward coming up some time early next season. The point remains that it won't be difficult to find someone who can equal or better Garret Anderson's production.

Perhaps, but does that also take into account the number of games he played while the moon was in the 11th house? Good frickin' grief, throw enough numbers at something & we'll eventually find a category that nearly every player in the league could be above average at.

The numbers I linked were Wins Above Replacement, which is the best way to quickly estimate the overall value of a player. You referenced a melange of different stats that don't really give a good indication of overall value.

The absence of a season where he got 400 AB's is a pretty good definition. Yeah, he got hot & Cox played him for a couple of months. But that doesn't prove he's a 150 game a year starter, not until he does it. It isn't whether his number for 2 months are good enough to start, it's whether those number hold up over a full season.

I'm still not clear on your reasoning here. I referenced more than 1100 ABs of data. Do you think his arms will fall off if he crosses the 400 AB mark in one season?

So he's 13th out of 22 but that's "about league average". But McLouth being 11th out of 25 makes him "above average"? That's convenient spin.

I'm not sure what your problem is with this characterization. There are 30 teams in the baseball. Presumably these players were more valuable than whatever platoon/injury/player shuffling situations that resulted in insufficient PAs for the rest of the league's 3Bs/CFs. For example, if you set the Min PAs to 100, Chipper finishes 13 out of 64. So, yes, I think it's fair to say that the 11th most valuable CF is "above average" and the 13th most valuable 3B is "about average." If you don't then I guess we just have a semantic disagreement. At any rate, it's a silly thing to argue over.

It is when you're dumping the most valuable one of the group in order to avoid eating a worse contract.

It's not "dumping" if you're getting fair value. It would be foolish to pay someone to take Lowe off your hands when he's coming off one of the worst season of his career. He put together 4 straight solid years and even this year he's going to give you nearly 200 IP at a 4.50 ERA. His advanced metrics(FIP and tRA) are more on par with what he's done the rest of his career as a starter, and he appears to have been at least partially the victim of bad luck this year, giving up a BABIP of .328.

Frank will do whatever his boss tells him to do if he'd like to have a job. Lemme see here, who would that boss be, hmm, can't think of his name right now but I'm sure it will come to me.

I'm just repeating what was reported in Baseball Prospectus:

General manager Frank Wren said he had no immediate plans to start looking for Cox's successor. However, those close to Wren believe he will look outside the organization because he wants to begin putting his own stamp on the organization after taking over for John Schuerholz, who was promoted to club president prior to last season. Wren also wants to have a good working relationship with the next manager, and he and Cox are barely on speaking terms despite their public comments to the contrary.

If you have some inside information about how Schuerholz is really managing personnel decisions through his Frank Wren puppet regime, please share.

Look, you want to be optimistic about this team, knock yourself out. I just don't see it, if anything they'll be lucky to tread water.

I don't see it as terribly optimistic to think that a team which has been one of the best in baseball in its current configuration should be pretty good next year. If you want to incorrectly predict another 100 loss season, knock yourself out.

[Karlifornia]

So, is Heyward expected to start opening day?

[ThunderingHERD]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

So, is Heyward expected to start opening day?

Probably not. Even if they intend on calling him up I'd say it's more likely that they hold off in order to delay his arbitration clock.

[stevew]

God, I can't believe the Pirates can't even outlose the Orioles. I'd much rather have the #2 pick than the #3. Screw playing for pride and avoiding 100 losses.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

Probably not. Even if they intend on calling him up I'd say it's more likely that they hold off in order to delay his arbitration clock.

Somewhere around June first is best if you want to avoid him being a "super two."