October Console Sales Numbers...........

[Arles]

Originally Posted by wade moore

I'll be honest and say I wouldn't be SHOCKED if this all comes to fruition. But, I just don't see where there is evidence right now to claim that it actually WILL happen.

One or two months of upswing after a price decrease without a decrease from your competitors, imo, is not enough to prove a trend.

In order for the PS3 to have a chance at catching the 360 by 2009, Blu-Ray needs to become the overall standard by early 2008. If that happens, I know many people (including two in my office right now) who would gladly pay an extra $50-100 to get the PS3 over a normal Blu-Ray player. But, everyone's afraid of putting money in the next "Betamax" until that happens and most people don't play games enough to rationalize a $300-$400 expense on a console-only purchase.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

This is Microsoft we're talking about. If there is a company in this world that can afford, and is often willing, to lose a few million to destroy their competition, it is Microsoft.

It would be much, MUCH more than 'a few million' that they'd lose. A few hundred million would probably be more accurate.

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

If MS were to drop the 360 by $100, I think the demand for the Wii would drop off quite appreciably. As much as I love my Wii, there is no denying that a lot of its greatness is the "bang for the buck" factor. If you had a 360 sitting next to a Wii for basically the same price, it becomes a harder sell.

They already have a 360 that's basically the same price as the Wii. The Core system (they call it something else now) is priced at $279. $30 isn't much of a difference at all. But it's not selling worth a lick when compared to the Wii or its more expensive 360 cousins. Price isn't everything, especially when the two products differ so much in what they offer.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

It would be much, MUCH more than 'a few million' that they'd lose. A few hundred million would probably be more accurate.

I still stand by what I said. MS put like $250 million into < 2% of a stake in Facebook. They risked an entire company restructuring to kill Netscape. They have more money than we can phathom, and they could (and should) be using it to destroy Sony right now.

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

They already have a 360 that's basically the same price as the Wii. The Core system (they call it something else now) is priced at $279. $30 isn't much of a difference at all. But it's not selling worth a lick when compared to the Wii or its more expensive 360 cousins. Price isn't everything, especially when the two products differ so much in what they offer.

Sorry, but much like you don't consider the Wii "next gen", I don't consider the Core system an Xbox 360.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Sorry, but much like you don't consider the Wii "next gen", I don't consider the Core system an Xbox 360.

In that case, I agree that if they get the Pro (20 GB) version down to $250, the 360 would hack into some of the Wii's market share. But I still don't think they're at a point financially where they can do that.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

If MS were to drop the 360 by $100, I think the demand for the Wii would drop off quite appreciably. As much as I love my Wii, there is no denying that a lot of its greatness is the "bang for the buck" factor. If you had a 360 sitting next to a Wii for basically the same price, it becomes a harder sell.

That argument would hold water if there weren't places selling Wii at a brisk pace at well above retail. The thing has hundreds to thousands of auctions on ebay ending every hour, all at above $400. Walmart/Bestbuy/Etc can't keep the $600 bundle deals in stock.


The bang for the buck is nice, but thats not whats driving sales.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Synovia

That argument would hold water if there weren't places selling Wii at a brisk pace at well above retail. The thing has hundreds to thousands of auctions on ebay ending every hour, all at above $400. Walmart/Bestbuy/Etc can't keep the $600 bundle deals in stock.


The bang for the buck is nice, but thats not whats driving sales.

This sounds like denying. I said no denying. Someone get this guy some reading glasses :P

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

In that case, I agree that if they get the Pro (20 GB) version down to $250, the 360 would hack into some of the Wii's market share. But I still don't think they're at a point financially where they can do that.

Wii + 2 games + 2 controllers = $400 (and coincidentally, is the bundle I ended up buying, but also fairly common when I checked sites)

360 Pro + 2 games + 2 controllers = $400 (Pro is $350 w/ 2 games included, extra controller is $50)

Wii and Pro 360 ARE the same price right now.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Wii + 2 games + 2 controllers = $400 (and coincidentally, is the bundle I ended up buying, but also fairly common when I checked sites)

360 Pro + 2 games + 2 controllers = $400 (Pro is $350 w/ 2 games included, extra controller is $50)

Wii and Pro 360 ARE the same price right now.

Wii $249 w/ Wii Sports Included
Extra controller $60 (nunchuck included)
Extra game $49
-------------------
$358.


If you chose Wii Play as the extra game, you're looking at $309 for Wii, 2 games 2 controllers.



You're making my point though: the price isn't whats driving Wii sales.

[Kodos]

I think price is a huge part of the Wii's sales. People who want a 360 don't want the crappy version. If it was a decent version for cheap, people would be scooping it up.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think price is a huge part of the Wii's sales. People who want a 360 don't want the crappy version. If it was a decent version for cheap, people would be scooping it up.

My parents bought a Wii. Do you really think my parents would buy a 360 if they were the same price? (which they are)

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think price is a huge part of the Wii's sales. People who want a 360 don't want the crappy version. If it was a decent version for cheap, people would be scooping it up.

This is me. Would've bought a 360 if I could've gotten one with good features for the same as a Wii. As it is, I'm not going to buy a neutered version of the 360 even if it is $149.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

This is me. Would've bought a 360 if I could've gotten one with good features for the same as a Wii. As it is, I'm not going to buy a neutered version of the 360 even if it is $149.

yes, and you're surfing a website for a Text sim football game. You're not exactly the normal gamer (nor am I). What people like us like means relatively little.

What is appealing to the casual/mainstream gamer is NOT the same as whats appealing to the hardcore gamer.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Synovia

My parents bought a Wii. Do you really think my parents would buy a 360 if they were the same price? (which they are)

Yes. Yes they would.





I'm talking more about gamers. Casuals are a different story. The novelty effect of the Wii is appealing to them. But someone who plays a lot of games doesn't want a neutered console. So comparing sales of the fully-featured Wii versus a castrated version of the 360 is not a fair basis for saying that price is not driving much of the success of the Wii.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Yes. Yes they would.





I'm talking more about gamers. Casuals are a different story. The novelty effect of the Wii is appealing to them. But someone who plays a lot of games doesn't want a neutered console. So comparing sales of the fully-featured Wii versus a castrated version of the 360 is not a fair basis for saying that price is not driving much of the success of the Wii.

Why not? The nuetered version of the 360 has more power/more HD outputs(than the wii), etc, and will play all the 360 games. Its nuetered in ways that your average gamer doesnt give a damn about.


You're confusing gamer with hardcore gamer. Your average gamer doesn't own multiple (next gen) consoles. Your average gamer isn't playing games on a 60" LCD. They're playing games on a 27-35" crt.


The Wii isn't winning because of price. Its winning for the same reason Guitar Hero is selling so well: theres nothing else like it.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by TroyF

(I loved the chopper sequence in it where you shoot the guys around the church. I will replay that level for kicks)

That was such a cool level.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Wii $249 w/ Wii Sports Included
Extra controller $60 (nunchuck included)
Extra game $49
-------------------
$358.

If you chose Wii Play as the extra game, you're looking at $309 for Wii, 2 games 2 controllers.

You're making my point though: the price isn't whats driving Wii sales.

Agreed. We could make all kinds of value comparisons between all three consoles to show that the consoles are all priced the same when you add features/games to make the offers comparable. Main point is that the Wii wins on console price alone and also will still sell better if all things were equal regarding price. It's much more than price at this point.

[albionmoonlight]

Sample Size of 1:

I will get a Wii instead of a 360 for Christmas. (PS3 was never really an option due to price and lack of any friends with it).

I think that my decision was based like this:

60% Fear of RROD (maybe rational, maybe not, but my original XBOX has never quite worked right and I did not want to go through another few years of having to worry every time I turned the machine on).

20% thinking that it will appeal to Mrs. A (She is not a gamer anymore because she did not want to have to drop out of grad school to learn button combinations. But I think that she will like some of the Wii games, and it will be fun to play with her.)

20% appeal of the virtual console library and/or the gamecube library (No hassle hardware based BC is a nice touch. And I must say that I am looking forward to playing Super Metroid and SMBIII as much as any Wii game. And, not having had a Nintendo machine since the Super Nintendo, a LOT of games will be very cheap and new to me).

Again, take what you will from a sample size of one. But that's why I made up my mind.

[Daimyo]

I own a Wii and I would have purchased it over an Xbox even if they were the same price. Wii has, or will soon have, the games I want to play (SMG, Zelda, Paper Mario, Power Pros, Metroid, Mario Kart + Virtual Console). The price point was important because I wouldn't pay more than $300 for any gaming console, but it helped in the absolute sense and not the relative sense. I am certainly not a hardcore gamer... i can't imagine buying/playing more than 1 game every month or two.

Wii vs PS3 at the same price would be tough though as the PS3 can do Blu Ray and will eventually have games I'm interested.... but we won't see a $250 PS3 for years so that's academic.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Wii vs PS3 at the same price would be tough though as the PS3 can do Blu Ray and will eventually have games I'm interested.... but we won't see a $250 PS3 for years so that's academic.

Well, its only $299 if you buy it from sonystyle.com.....

That being said, the big advantage the PS3/360 have over the Wii is shear power, which obviously translates to better graphics/resolution. Unfortunately, 80+% of households don't have HDTVs, and don't give a damn.


I bought a Wii because the only difference between the PS3 and PS2 to me was graphics, and that wasnt going to make a goddamn difference on my 27" sony Trinitron. I have since bought a 42" LCD 1080p Tv, so my decision may have been different, probably not though.

The PS3/360 just dont do anything that the PS2 doesn't do, other than higher resolution. The Wii does something completely different. I'll probably buy a PS3 next year, but Blu-Ray will be as much a part of that decision as the gaming.


If you don't have a 720P or better TV, most of the benefits of the next gen systems don't really matter.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Synovia

That being said, the big advantage the PS3/360 have over the Wii is shear power, which obviously translates to better graphics/resolution.

It can also translate to gameplay and physics (more enemies, more destructible environments), but that is primarily of interest if you are into VR / simulation games (racing, FPS, flight, etc).

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Not to mention the Orange Box winning best PC game over both.

It's a complete shambles that Super Mario Galaxy wasn't even nominated for the overall prize and confusing to see it listed as an action game, but hey it's GameSpot-affiliated and we all know what kind of credibility they have after the Gerstmann incident so who really cares.

FYI: Gamespot had limited credibility before that, even

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Any link to the prediction you mention in 2005? I can't find any predictions from the same analyst during that time frame. The only mention I see from that site during that period is the Microsoft sales estimates, which weren't all that rosy at the time. But those sales estimates were from Microsoft, not this analyst. To be honest, given your logic, Microsoft shouldn't be trusted either. Their estimates were incorrect in 2005 as well (See update on November 1st, 2005).

http://www.screendigest.com/online_s.../games/updates

I have to echo that comparing Microsoft's analysis to an "unbiased" 3rd party analysis is hardly fair. Then again, these analyses and a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee. I'm pretty sure if I wanted to throw together a couple of powerpoint presentations and excel spreadsheets based on incomplete data, I could publish and claim results as a financial analyst.



http://www.digitaljournal.com/articl...inishing_Last_

Hamamura says cost will come down for manufacturing as demand increases, and it will outsell both Wii and Xbox 360 in the long run because of graphics and "rich pool of potentially popular games."

Enterbrain (what a name?!?!) predicts the following results by 2009:
Sony PS3 Sales: 34 million units
Xbox 360 Sales: 28 million units
Nintendo Wii Sales: 25 million units



http://www.gamespot.com/news/6153458.html

Analyst: PS3 could be third
DFC Intelligence says Sony could "easily go from first to worst"; thinks brand strength, market position can't overcome $600 price.



http://www.gamespot.com/news/6163625.html

The firm believes that the PS3 will ultimately carry the largest market share, with 75 million PS3s sold worldwide by 2010. However, the company doesn't expect the PS3 to dominate the new console cycle the same way the PlayStation 2 did last generation, due largely to European "late launch issues" and the head start of the Xbox 360.



http://www.gamespot.com/news/6155912.html

Analyst: PS3 to win next-gen war
The Yankee Group predicts 30 million PS3s, 27 million Xbox 360s, and 11 million Wiis sold in North America by 2011.



http://www.gamespot.com/news/6159876.html

Enterbrain: PS3 will lead Wii by Q4 2007

As a result, Enterbrain predicted that the PS3 will outsell its biggest next-gen rival in Japan, the Nintendo Wii, by the end of next year. However, in the near term, the company believes that the Wii will win out. It predicts that worldwide PS3 sales through the end of March will total 4.13 million units, while the Wii will move 5.47 million units during the same period.


SI

[Mustang]

I only bought a Wii because the end result was that it was free (buy 3, sell 2, keep 1)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Japanese sales numbers for week ending December 9th:

Wii: 110K
PS3: 38K
PS2: 15K
360: 8K

Nintendo finally got a big boost from Wii Fit in the second week of it's release. Reportedly, lots of Wii's were diverted to Japan this week to take advantage of the Wii Fit rush. 360 sales numbers increased 50% due to the release of Lost Odyssey in Japan. PS3 sales dropped by 4K with no new games available. Release of Gran Turismo 5: Prologue next week should give the PS3 a renewed sales boost (250-300K units expected to sell in first week).

[MikeVic]

So much for the PS3 continually out-selling the Wii until 2009.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

So much for the PS3 continually out-selling the Wii until 2009.

Did someone really predict that?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Did someone really predict that?

I don't think anyone predicted it, but I thought someone said something about the PS3 out-selling the Wii and 360 by an average of 250k units a month in Japan and Europe in order to catch up by 2009. And then I tried doing the math on it or something? Maybe I'm mistaken.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I don't think anyone predicted it, but I thought someone said something about the PS3 out-selling the Wii and 360 by an average of 250k units a month in Japan and Europe in order to catch up by 2009. And then I tried doing the math on it or something? Maybe I'm mistaken.

I said that the PS3 would catch the 360 worldwide by 2009.

The Wii is a totally different situation. No one has predicted that the PS3 will catch the Wii. The article I posted recently predicted that the PS3 might pull within 5M units by 2011. I find that to be optomistic at best.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I said that the PS3 would catch the 360 worldwide by 2009.

The Wii is a totally different situation. No one has predicted that the PS3 will catch the Wii. The article I posted recently predicted that the PS3 might pull within 5M units by 2011. I find that to be optomistic at best.

See SterlingICe's post a couple posts back. People most definitely HAVE said the PS3 will catch the Wii.


They're nuts.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Synovia

See SterlingICe's post a couple posts back. People most definitely HAVE said the PS3 will catch the Wii.


They're nuts.

All of the articles in his post were articles before the PS3 and Wii were even released. He was posting those to show how predictions can go wrong. Those aren't current predictions.

I do agree with you that both the PS3 and 360 have an uphill climb at best.

[MikeVic]

Ok, sorry, I misinterpreted your post then.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I said that the PS3 would catch the 360 worldwide by 2009.

The Wii is a totally different situation. No one has predicted that the PS3 will catch the Wii. The article I posted recently predicted that the PS3 might pull within 5M units by 2011. I find that to be optomistic at best.

From your post yesterday:

says Mr Harding-Rolls, so that by 2011 the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

From your post yesterday:

I stand corrected then. As I said before, I find that to be overly optimistic. I don't think there's any way the PS3 catches the Wii worldwide.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Japanese sales numbers for week ending December 9th:



Nintendo finally got a big boost from Wii Fit in the second week of it's release. Reportedly, lots of Wii's were diverted to Japan this week to take advantage of the Wii Fit rush. 360 sales numbers increased 50% due to the release of Lost Odyssey in Japan. PS3 sales dropped by 4K with no new games available. Release of Gran Turismo 5: Prologue next week should give the PS3 a renewed sales boost (250-300K units expected to sell in first week).

SMG sold 20k more than it did last week, good to see that Japan still has some taste. It finally broke a half-million over there, which only took one week to happen in the US.

Wii Fit is now over 400k+ in two weeks and has sold 95% of it's shipment, so that should stay up on the charts for awhile. With Smash Brothers in January and Mario Kart Wii in February or March Wii sales should stay healthy for the next few months.

It's a shame that No More Heroes couldn't do better than 13k in it's first week, hopefully it does better in the West.