GroupThink 3 - Kitty Hawk, 2021

[Buzzbee]

Since we are at a little bit of an analysis phase, I'll throw out the 3-4 defense again. I'm certainly not convinced we should abandon the 4-3 mid-season, but do see some advantages based on personnel to run a 3-4. Has anyone run a 3-4 in one of their games and if so, did you notice any differences? Thoughts?

[albionmoonlight]

I've thought about the 3-4, but I think we should stick with what we have for this season. It does not seem realistic to make a change that drastic mid season. Even if FOF does not give us a penalty for that, I doubt you would see a team making that kind of a wholesale change in the middle of the year.

I, however, echo Buzzbee's curiousity. I am thinking of making this change for next season. Has anyone done this and looked at the differences it made?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Since we are at a little bit of an analysis phase, I'll throw out the 3-4 defense again. I'm certainly not convinced we should abandon the 4-3 mid-season, but do see some advantages based on personnel to run a 3-4. Has anyone run a 3-4 in one of their games and if so, did you notice any differences? Thoughts?

If playing guy out of their true position doesn't cause a real drop in performance (which is my general feeling), then under what circumstance does it make much difference to switch to a 3-4? If you can just play that extra LB as a DE (like we can) is there a compelling reason to switch?

In our case - our problem really isn't at DT (the position which gets reduced byswitching), it's really at DE (which we already can fill by using OLBs).

Not trying to be antagonistic - this is just one of those things that I never fiddle with, and am wondering if there's more to it that I'm catching without much thinking.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
It's funny how we gravitate to different players. I'm pulling for MLB Middleton. I'm kinda partial to him because I "administered" that portion of the draft and made the executive decision to draft Wylie instead of Middleton. As a result I kinda see him as a "steal" when he was still around in the 2nd. It's kinda like I see that as one that was meant to be.

I expect that part of my love for S McNair was because I was running the draft then, and when we were looking for a safety, I pointed out that he (a CB at the time) was sized right to make the position switch (which he did, fortunately). So, that's probably part of the reason I feel attached to him - he was my "find."

I wouldn't have been ballsy enough to pass on Middleton, though -- so your getting him in round two (whether you expected it or not) turned out to be a great windfall. I think he's on his way to being a standout.

[Glengoyne]

Nice work on the logos Cuervo. I like the flyer with the script overlaid. The tan one is a close second. Good Work.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
If playing guy out of their true position doesn't cause a real drop in performance (which is my general feeling), then under what circumstance does it make much difference to switch to a 3-4? If you can just play that extra LB as a DE (like we can) is there a compelling reason to switch?

In our case - our problem really isn't at DT (the position which gets reduced byswitching), it's really at DE (which we already can fill by using OLBs).

Not trying to be antagonistic - this is just one of those things that I never fiddle with, and am wondering if there's more to it that I'm catching without much thinking.

I guess my thinking is that switching would allow us to put a beefier guy at DE rather than an undersized LB. Yes, Middleton has some serious talent, but does that talent necessarily translate to success when slotted as a DE. I'm not sure it does. Not sure it doesn't either. So far it seems fairly inconclusive, which is what spurred my question. I don't necessarily have a hot nut for a 3-4. Personally I like the 4-3 better. Just wanted to raise the question to see what feedback was offered. I was only trying to elicit a compelling reason to either switch or stay. So far I think yours and Alb's reasoning is enough of a stand to stay the course.

As and aside: In regard to the players on the field, it would work out the same, but the matchups would be different, and POSSIBLY advantageous for us. However, that is real-world theory. It may not mean a hill-o-beans in FOF.

If the 3-4 is a goal of Alb's, then we need to make a serious effort to get some quality, durable DE's.

[albionmoonlight]

3-4 also allows us to blitz with a little more creativity.

[albionmoonlight]

Kitty Hawk (19) at Nashua (3)

Our defense finally played like I wanted them to. We held them to 76 yards rushing and just over 50% passing.

McNair rewarded our GM's endorsement with 4 tackles and an interception in his new, more extensive, role.

Shon got 2 sacks, as did Martin (who is a force when he is healthy).

Our kicker went 4-4, with 3 of the 4 being 50+ yard field goals.

Rubble was a non-factor but we had a good 1-2 punch running the ball (Finley 19-86 : Harden 12:47) and receiving (Sanderson 8-89 : Song 6-82).

Nashua was 9-3 going into this game, so this was a quality win.

Bermuda lost, so we are tied for the division lead.

[albionmoonlight]

Kitty Hawk (37) at Mazatlan (31) (OT)

We jumped out to a 17 point lead early. Mazatlan apparently decided to go pass wacky to keep up with us, and it almost worked. Their QB went 32 for 55 for 380 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Lucky for us, one of the interceptions was returned by CB Bordano 84 yards for a touchdown in overtime.

(I will adjust the game plan for when we have a big lead.)

Song had another big day--7 catches for 103 yards.

Hutchens cut up the weak Mazatlan D--277 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Bermuda lost again, giving us a one game lead in the division.

[albionmoonlight]

A few injuries in the last game. Middleton is out for two weeks.

[albionmoonlight]

Manhattan (10) at Kitty Hawk (36).

Good News First: Bermuda lost this week, so we are the division champs no matter what happens against them next week.

More Good News: We played really well this game. Finley and Harden both broke the century mark. Finley was also the leading receiver for this game. Our defense forced 4 interceptions. Our kicker went 5 for 5.

The Bad News: Last year, Hutchens took over in the playoffs for an injured Sparks. This year, Sparks gets to return the favor. Hutchens is out with MCL surgery. I will send over the file now to let Fritz have a game before the playoffs to work out the kinks in our new (old) Sparks game plan.

I'll send the file with the D depth chart and base game plan set.

[albionmoonlight]

Also--I set the D depth chart to hide anyone with an injury. Make sure to check with me before you go into the playoffs. This is not the depth chart with which we want to go into the playoffs.

It looks like we are in pretty good shape for the #2 overall seed (and a precious bye week). You may want to look at that in more depth tomorrow to determine how important the Bermuda game is.

[albionmoonlight]

gt3b

[Fritz]

well, good thing Hutchens contract is up....

[Buzzbee]

SCOUTING REPORT: Bermuda Barons

We beat them earlier in the season 35-17. Here is the scouting report from week 11.

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Quick and Dirty SCOUTING REPORT: Bermuda Barons

Offense
They aren't very effective running the ball (566 yards - 24th; 3.04 YPC - 30th) but are fairly adept with the passing game. They like to spread the field and hit the deep route (21st in ATT, 25th in Completions, 5th in Yards Per Attempt - 7.70)

QB Julio Kramer is what makes this team tick. He is surrounded by avarage talent, but they are 6-1 by way of his arm. The recievers are nothing spectacular, even marginal. The O Line is one of the weaker we have seen.

MY RECOMMENDATION:
Blitz, blitz, blitz. If we can sack him, he can't throw the ball. If we can't sack him, he'll complete it. Nickel and dime him to death. Their main threat at RB it out for the season. Tell the DE's and OLB's to pin their ears back and bring it!

Defense
DT Otis Polak is a hoss. Running up the middle will most likely be folly. However, the DE's are a little suspect and may yield some yardage. The LB corps is pretty solid and pretty deep. RCB Reggie Cramer is a very good corner, and the Barons have talent at the other corner as well. The Safeties are a weakness when compared to the rest of the team, but aren't horrible.

MY RECOMMENDATION
Run off tackle to take advantage of the weak DE's. Spread the ball around and expect a less then stellar offensive performance against a pretty good D. Oh, and pray that our D can slow down Francis.

Fritz - Pulled this from the Box score from the last game. Thought you might want to take a look:

   Kitty Hawk Rushing Breakdown

   

   Direction		Rush	Yards	Ave

   Left		5	38	7.6

   Middle		22	89	4.0

   Right		6	23	3.8

AND...

   Distance		Pass	Comp	Yards	Ave

   Screen		2	1	5	2.5

   Short (0-8 Yds)	12	8	57	4.7

   Medium (9-18 Yds)	19	11	149	7.8

   Long (19+ Yds)	4	0	0	0.0

   

   Passing		Attempt	Comp	BdThrw	Dropd	Defnsd	Blockd	Hurried	Intrcpt

   17 Hutchins		37	20	4	2	2	2	6	1

[Buzzbee]

Addendum to SCOUTING REPORT:

Also, the Blitz recommendation worked last time. We had 8 sacks!!!

The Bermuda Rankings:

Category	Value	Rank

Rushes		354	25

Rushing Yards	1090	30

YPC		3.07	30

Pass Attempts	586	3

Completions	310	19(T)

Passing Yards	4025	4

YPA		6.86	13(T)

3rd Down Conv	37.9	14

PPG		17.7	27

Turnovers	28	18

Margin		-4	20(T)



OPPONENTS:

Rushes		412	20(T)

Rushing Yards	1583	26

YPC		3.84	24

Pass Attempts	536	18(T)

Completions	334	28

Passing Yards	3316	8

YPA		6.18	4

3rd Down Conv	37.1	18

PPG		19.8	10(T)

Turnovers	24	19(T)

They STILL don't run (they had 10 rushes in our last game!). I suggest heavy nickel and severe blitz.

They give up yards on the ground, and are susceptible to the long ball. But REMEMBER - Otis Polak at NT is a monster. Run away! Run AWAY!

[Fritz]

thanks Buzzbee.

I will be in and out of meetings the rest of the morning, but should get an O set and sim the last game of the season.

FWIW, we have a better winning% when albionmoonlight sims the games. Should mister lucky run the playoffs?

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Fritz
On team colors - I did a madden team based on this with Sky Blue and Sand as the colors and a White Wright Flyer as the logo. It was fairly sharp.

Hmm, funny how almost everyone imagines the same colors I've put some more alternatives up there. I personally now prefer the block letters in front of the larger plane (I mixed styles). The color permutations are endless...I changed BG colors to get an idea of what the logo might look like on a helmet. I was thinking it could go directly on the helmet, or in an oval Jets/49ers style.

Of course if Fritz has a logo already it might very well outdo all of these.

[albionmoonlight]

The only reason that I have a better winning percentage is because I sim each game three times and save the best result. (Kidding, of course. I just wanted to give QS a little heart attack scare).

I like simming because it lets me look at and really tweak each gameplan. The problem with me simming the playoffs is that I have to do it from home. It can be a lot more interactive when Fritz does it from here because we can discuss between each game.

I am happy to sim the playoffs if people want. I'll go with the group's decision. (Note, however, that tonight may be a bit tight for me. I may not get around to it until Friday night/weekend. That would, however, give us a chance to scout/game plan, etc. on Friday).

[Fritz]

Cuervo - did I miss a link?

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by cuervo72
I had been thinking Carolina blue myself, but moved to a darker blue with a steely-blue trim (It wouldn't be hard to change that to tan). I've put together a couple of logos and placed them with my other logos I'd done here . Nothing elaborate, pretty simple style-wise. I don't know if they'd be appropriate for the 2020's, or if they'd work too well on a helmet

I appreciate that it is hard to please everyone in a large group, but I might as well give it a shot. Fritz, any suggested techniques would be appreciated (I'm working mainly in Photoshop).

It was back on the last page (I was going to restate the link, but didn't....).

[albionmoonlight]

I like the Carolina Blue with the tan. I also like the script better than the block letters. They all look cool. I can't wait to see the helmet.

[QuikSand]

Looks to me like the "big game" here isn't so big after all. We are 10-5, and have the division locked up thanks for Bermuda's recent collapse (and our strong run). I guess the biggest consequence of locing here might be that emphis could catch us for the #2 seed, forcing us to playin the opening week (when we really could use the bye week).

Seems to me the biggest factor is probably getting Sparks in and comfy - and getting us juiced up for the postseason. A win clinched the #2 seed and a bye - that ought to be incentive enough.

Well done, gang.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by cuervo72
I appreciate that it is hard to please everyone in a large group, but I might as well give it a shot. Fritz, any suggested techniques would be appreciated (I'm working mainly in Photoshop).

Overall I think your material is fine.

If you have any interest and the time, I would be willing to pow wow with you on techniques and concepts one evening. I find that AIM or YIM are good for this. I would just be making some observations and giving you some tips that might help you make stronger designs. Really it would be nothing more than a two way exhange of ideas.

[Buzzbee]

Well, seeing as how we were 3-0 without scouting reports, I think I should retire as Lead Scout and take my place in the marketing department.

Hmmm. Next promotion idea - pass out Kitty Hawk Flyer Airplanes to the first 12,000 fans to buy an alcoholic drink. The planes will be a quality product, since we do things the right way here in the Marketing department. We will require them to fly at least 150 yards when thrown from the top row of the stadium. That should make the fans happy! Oh, I almost forgot, we can couple it with a Referee Appreciation day! Those refs just DON'T get the recognition they deserve.

[albionmoonlight]

Having some momentum going into the playoffs is nice.

It sucks to have our starting QB go down, but at least Sparks has proven he can win for us.

I find that we have done better on D with double covering the top receiver more and the #2 receiver less as our base coverage. We seem to do really well against teams with one receiver a lot better than the other.


Fritz--for the last game of the season--increase the blitz frequency to 95 for all of the screens (except red zone and inside the 3). Also, please increase the nickel and dime to 60 for the "normal situation" defense. Thanks a bunch.

Otherwise, the D gameplan is set.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
increase the blitz frequency to 95

Love the sound of that. I've never done anythign this extreme playing FOF on my own... wonder how it might work with a whole team built around that idea?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Love the sound of that. I've never done anythign this extreme playing FOF on my own... wonder how it might work with a whole team built around that idea?

I want to examine the stats at the end of the season. I only took the quickest of glances at them this morning. We may be playing a little better D than I thought. It seems like we are still giving up lots of yards, BUT we are not giving up lots of points AND we are getting lots of turnovers. That would make sense, given our aggressive style. We can get burned a lot, but we also can force the other team to make a mistake and turn the ball over before they score with it. I'll have to see if a more in depth analysis of the stats bears that view out.

[Fritz]

the frequency settings are something that confound me a little. In the run/pass settings we are talking %, but frequency is done off of some number that Jim has coded in. For instance, Blitz 50 just means you blitz about as much as an Average team in his modle. 99 is more than 50, but how much more?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
99 is more than 50, but how much more?

2/3 more

[Fritz]

it wpuld suck to be the guy getting 2/3 a sack. FOF would not give him credit.

[cuervo72]

Note: I've moved logos and helmets (3 so far) to a Kitty Hawk directory.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by cuervo72
Note: I've moved logos and helmets (3 so far) to a Kitty Hawk directory.

I like this one best.



The Block letters on Helmet 2 just seem to stand out too much and you miss the plane. Helmet 3 looks like a fly got swatted in between the letters (not really, I'm just trying to be funny). 4 looks pretty darn good too.

I'd like to see a helmet with the helmet 1 design and the helmet 4 color scheme/layout. I think that one would be my favorite.

Thanks for working on these Cuervo. It adds even more to the immersion factor to be able to envision the team on the field. Although at this point the vision of a bunch of guys with sharp looking helmets running around naked is a little bit disturbing.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
I like this one best.

I'd like to see a helmet with the helmet 1 design and the helmet 4 color scheme/layout. I think that one would be my favorite.

?

Thanks for working on these Cuervo. It adds even more to the immersion factor to be able to envision the team on the field. Although at this point the vision of a bunch of guys with sharp looking helmets running around naked is a little bit disturbing.

My pleasure. Um, yeah....I've not done any uniforms for any of my teams yet, but I do imagine them wearing some

[albionmoonlight]

I agree with that design the best. I like either color scheme.

Maybe try helmet two with a tan stripe/facemask instead of dark blue.

[cuervo72]

Ok, two more options:




Edit: added a third, rather than making a new post.

[Buzzbee]

Yup, dis one. Dat's da one I like.





Ooooh!! No, wait. This one.

[Buzzbee]

Dola - And with all your efforts, I think you've got 1970 - 2022 covered!

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Dola - And with all your efforts, I think you've got 1970 - 2022 covered!

Yeah, there are some variations there

Here's the logo for that particular helmet:


Of course, the other participants haven't given their approval...

edit: inserted a smaller version of the logo.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by cuervo72
Of course, the other participants haven't given their approval...

Ehhhhh screw 'em.


(just kidding of course.)

[Fritz]

Kitty Hawk 37 at Bermuda 14

I decided to rest anyone with a limp and so Harden started at SE and Strong was activated as SE2. TE Wayne was slotted as FB1. I also juiced the run left % to take advantage of Buzzbees report about that side of the line.

Sparks was the MVP. keeping him on the bench has ignited some sort of TD fire. His yards were not too impressive (199) but 4Tds (3 going to Song) spoke volumes.

The Running game was solid with Finely going over 100 and Harden going over 70. Buzzbee's run to the left gave us 8 YPC, but most of the runs were up the gut for a healthy 4.4 YPC. The Oline allowed no sacks.

The Def had 3 Sacks and 2 Ints, and the squad really gave a unit effort with no one player standing out.

Andrews went out with a tendon, but after simming the playoff bye he is probable and will start.

K-Car is probable but will sit the next playoff game.

We go into the semi-final round a 4 point favorite over Memphis. Unless we fall apart this next game should be a win led by our agressive LB corp.

[Fritz]

Cuervo,

You have done some nice work, and if it just the same with everyone else invloved I would let you pick the "official" helmet.

[Fritz]

file 1

[Fritz]

file 2

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
I want to examine the stats at the end of the season. I only took the quickest of glances at them this morning. We may be playing a little better D than I thought. It seems like we are still giving up lots of yards, BUT we are not giving up lots of points AND we are getting lots of turnovers. That would make sense, given our aggressive style. We can get burned a lot, but we also can force the other team to make a mistake and turn the ball over before they score with it. I'll have to see if a more in depth analysis of the stats bears that view out.

Just came back and re-read this. I think it also might be a testament to our run D. With a long field teams are able to throw downfield with some success. However, when they get down near the goal-line the pass becomes more difficult because the D is more compacted and there is less area to cover. Also, teams probably tend to run more when they are inside the 20. So, giving up yardage, but not points MIGHT be an indication that our run D is pretty wicked, but our pass D is a little suspect.

I'd be curious to look at our opponents success inside the 20 (can get it off the box score) coupled with our stats on run defense to further test my theory. Opponents Drive summaries might also shed some light on if teams are scoring on big plays or chipping away 'til they get in the endzone.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by Fritz
Cuervo,

You have done some nice work, and if it just the same with everyone else invloved I would let you pick the "official" helmet.

Seconded.

Amen.

[Buzzbee]

I'll scout Memphis as soon as I get home so that perhaps we can sim Memphis tonight, kick their ass, and then be ready to whomp our way to the Championship.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Fritz
Cuervo,

You have done some nice work, and if it just the same with everyone else invloved I would let you pick the "official" helmet.

Thanks - I'm fine with going with Buzzbee on this one, actually.

Sounds like you guys have Buddy Ryan running your defense...

[albionmoonlight]

Originally posted by cuervo72
Thanks - I'm fine with going with Buzzbee on this one, actually.

Sounds like you guys have Buddy Ryan running your defense...

When do I get to try to punch Fritz out?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
I'll scout Memphis as soon as I get home so that perhaps we can sim Memphis tonight, kick their ass, and then be ready to whomp our way to the Championship.

As stated above, I may not be able to get to this tonight to sim. If not, Fritz can sim it tomorrow. I will do my best to get to it, but I cannot make any promises.