2012-2013 MLB Offseason Thread: Go forth to the 2013 MLB Thread

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by molson

Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to exactly the same contract terms as they gave to Mike Napoli. That doesn't make a ton of sense, but the Red Sox will be under budget this year, so it really doesn't matter, it's not like the money would have been spent elsewhere. It's just nice to get more warm bodies in there that weren't members of the 2012 team.

I don't really like it (did like the Napoli signing), but it makes a lot more sense if they plan on trading Ellsbury this winter(or week). Still need one pitcher (Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster?), and they want to add another outfielder (Cody Ross for his RH splits?), especially if they trade Jacoby. I'm also not sure on trading Ellsbury now, but that all depends on the return - his value is a low now, but I don't see it being any higher near the trade deadline when he's essentially a rental, and it only takes one team to really covet him (here's to hoping the Phillies miss out on Michael Bourn somehow).

I'm also not a huge fan of the Victorino deal because it seems like they're paying for mediocrity instead of trying out some combo of Kalish/Nava next year, Brentz/JBJ in 2013, but I guess we have the budget room to pay $13 million for an outfielder with (the wrong side) platoon splits, and the market for CF's has gone crazy, so why not?

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I heard the Phillies might sign someone this off-season.

They may need to resign Brian Schneider, seeing that Carlos Ruiz will miss the 1st 25 games of the season.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Dale Sveum, Chicago Cubs manager, shot by Robin Yount, Milwaukee Brewers Hall of Famer, in offseason hunting accident - ESPN Chicago

Any word on where Dick Cheney was during all this?

SI

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I don't really like it (did like the Napoli signing), but it makes a lot more sense if they plan on trading Ellsbury this winter(or week). Still need one pitcher (Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster?), and they want to add another outfielder (Cody Ross for his RH splits?), especially if they trade Jacoby. I'm also not sure on trading Ellsbury now, but that all depends on the return - his value is a low now, but I don't see it being any higher near the trade deadline when he's essentially a rental, and it only takes one team to really covet him (here's to hoping the Phillies miss out on Michael Bourn somehow).

I'm also not a huge fan of the Victorino deal because it seems like they're paying for mediocrity instead of trying out some combo of Kalish/Nava next year, Brentz/JBJ in 2013, but I guess we have the budget room to pay $13 million for an outfielder with (the wrong side) platoon splits, and the market for CF's has gone crazy, so why not?

Dislike as well. Not really a fan of the Napoli deal, but it's better than this one. This one only makes sense if they trade Ellsbury frankly, otherwise it seems like a stupid move to block young potential for older mediocrity.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Just pulling numbers real quick and not looking at other specifics (and I won't say WAR is the end all be all, just using it as a quick and dirty choice).

Actually, he said over the last 20 years, so the numbers from 92-2012 looks like the following:

                                  
Rk           Player  WAR From   To
1     Randy Johnson 93.9 1992 2009
2       Greg Maddux 83.5 1992 2008
3    Pedro Martinez 82.6 1992 2009
4     Roger Clemens 81.0 1992 2007
5    Curt Schilling 76.9 1992 2007
6      Mike Mussina 76.0 1992 2008
7      Roy Halladay 63.1 1998 2012
8       Tom Glavine 58.3 1992 2008
9       Kevin Brown 57.9 1992 2005
10    Andy Pettitte 54.5 1995 2012
11   Mariano Rivera 52.7 1995 2012
12       Tim Hudson 51.1 1999 2012
13      CC Sabathia 51.0 2001 2012
14      John Smoltz 51.0 1992 2009
15     Mark Buehrle 48.9 2000 2012
16    Johan Santana 48.6 2000 2012
17       Roy Oswalt 48.5 2001 2012
18     Kenny Rogers 46.0 1992 2008
19     Kevin Appier 44.4 1992 2004
20       David Cone 43.3 1992 2003
21       Brad Radke 42.6 1995 2006
22      Jamie Moyer 41.6 1993 2012
23      David Wells 40.9 1992 2007
24   Javier Vazquez 40.2 1998 2011

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/5/2012.

[Subby]

The Red Sox just seem to be completely flailing in FA. Victorino is no better than a short-side platooner at this point. Napoli had one outlier year. What the hell is going on there?

[molson]

The Red Sox may be afraid to give big contracts to bigger stars

On the other hand, it seems like for every single free agent signing (by any team), there's a lot of sentiment that it was too much money. Maybe that's just what these guys cost. If the Sox should have passed on Napoli and Victorino, who should they have gone after and for what cost?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

The Red Sox may be afraid to give big contracts to bigger stars

On the other hand, it seems like for every single free agent signing (by any team), there's a lot of sentiment that it was too much money. Maybe that's just what these guys cost. If the Sox should have passed on Napoli and Victorino, who should they have gone after and for what cost?

IMO Napoli and Victorino don't do anything to make this team more playoff-likely. So why not just let the kids play?

Victorino in particular doesn't address any sort of "need" (again, unless you trade Ellsbury, in which case whatever you trade Ells for had better be a #3 or better starter). Napoli....alright I can see a need, but I don't think he's due for the bounceback year that people seem to be factoring him in for, so I think that ends up being a contract they end up eating.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by molson

On the other hand, it seems like for every single free agent signing (by any team), there's a lot of sentiment that it was too much money. Maybe that's just what these guys cost. If the Sox should have passed on Napoli and Victorino, who should they have gone after and for what cost?

I hear ya, but there is a constant of league minimum cost for replacement players, and an almost unlimited supply of them. We all know that at least a couple of the 7-figure free agents signed this offseason will produce a negative VORP going forward.

[molson]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

I hear ya, but there is a constant of league minimum cost for replacement players, and an almost unlimited supply of them. We all know that at least a couple of the 7-figure free agents signed this offseason will produce a negative VORP going forward.

Maybe you could make the argument that the Red Sox should go into 2012 with a $40 million payroll, filling all the gaps with minimum salary AAAA veterans, but I don't know if that's realistic PR-wise. This is an ownership that gets skewered for focusing too much on Liverpool when their payroll is $170 million.

Edit: And of course, you can't pick up any random AAAA free agent and minimum salary and be guaranteed a 0 VORP or WAR over a full season. As the Red Sox have proven again and again, you can't pay a guy $10 million/year and be guaranteed that.

[Young Drachma]

Tom Cheek Wins The Ford C. Frick! | Drunk Jays Fans | Blogs | theScore.com

Longtime Blue Jays announcer Tom Cheek wins the Ford C. Frick Award, the HOF award for broadcasters.

[rowech]

Rumors around Cincy have Ellsbury coming to Cincy for Stubbs and prospects. Please let it be true.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by rowech

Rumors around Cincy have Ellsbury coming to Cincy for Stubbs and prospects. Please let it be true.

No way!

[rowech]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

No way!

That was my opinion too but there are a lot of people talking.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by rowech

That was my opinion too but there are a lot of people talking.

I don't see the value in Stubbs. Also doesn't make sense to trade one OF for another when you just committed to Victorino. What the team needs to trade Ellsbury for is young SP, either established, or with #1/#2 starter ceiling.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I don't see the value in Stubbs. Also doesn't make sense to trade one OF for another when you just committed to Victorino. What the team needs to trade Ellsbury for is young SP, either established, or with #1/#2 starter ceiling.

Ellsbury might get a good pitching prospect, but no way he gets an established 1 or 2. He was great in 2011, but injuries and poor performance in 2010 and 2012 make him pretty risky, especially when he's going to be a Boras free agent after 2013.

[Logan]

The Mets will probably give you Dickey for him.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I don't see the value in Stubbs. Also doesn't make sense to trade one OF for another when you just committed to Victorino. What the team needs to trade Ellsbury for is young SP, either established, or with #1/#2 starter ceiling.

And in what planet is one year of Ellsbury worth that kind of ceiling? Stubbs is an elite defensive CF, better than Ellsbury; while the former has a much greater offensive profile, he has only one year of control at market value as a Boras client. If you're the Reds, Stubbs and a B prospect for Ellsbury may make sense as a win-now move, but there's no "no 1 starter" type coming back for Jacoby.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Ellsbury might get a good pitching prospect, but no way he gets an established 1 or 2. He was great in 2011, but injuries and poor performance in 2010 and 2012 make him pretty risky, especially when he's going to be a Boras free agent after 2013.

Also, you only get the pick from losing a tendered free agent if he was oon your team for more than a year. Ellsbury walks for nothing at the end of 2013 for any team but the Red Sox.

[stevew]

I thought it was just a complete season? Yanks signed Kuroda in January of 2012 and he was free agent comp.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by stevew

I thought it was just a complete season? Yanks signed Kuroda in January of 2012 and he was free agent comp.

Yeah. I guess the ox could trade him in the winter and the new team'd still get something.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by rowech

That was my opinion too but there are a lot of people talking.

If this rumor has any truth to it, I think it's a great move for Cincy. Get some offense in the lineup for 2013 and clear the way for Billy Hamilton in 2014.

[DanGarion]

Rumor has it that Dodgers are attempting to sign both Greinke and Sanchez...

[MrBug708]

Blanton 2 years 15 million

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Ellsbury might get a good pitching prospect, but no way he gets an established 1 or 2. He was great in 2011, but injuries and poor performance in 2010 and 2012 make him pretty risky, especially when he's going to be a Boras free agent after 2013.

You misunderstood. Either an established starter (#3,#4,#5), or a prospect with a higher ceiling than that (to compensate for the fact that they're not established).

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

And in what planet is one year of Ellsbury worth that kind of ceiling? Stubbs is an elite defensive CF, better than Ellsbury; while the former has a much greater offensive profile, he has only one year of control at market value as a Boras client. If you're the Reds, Stubbs and a B prospect for Ellsbury may make sense as a win-now move, but there's no "no 1 starter" type coming back for Jacoby.

On the planet of "if you can't get a pitcher that can contribute this year or a high-ceiling prospect for the future you might as well just keep him and let him walk and take the draft pick."

Stubbs has a poor offensive profile. So (presumably) does Iglesias at SS. Sox are already going to be carrying like 2 subpar offensive players, last thing the team needs is a third (being generous...Stubbs might be a 4th for all we know).

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Subby

The Red Sox just seem to be completely flailing in FA. Victorino is no better than a short-side platooner at this point. Napoli had one outlier year. What the hell is going on there?

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Napoli....alright I can see a need, but I don't think he's due for the bounceback year that people seem to be factoring him in for, so I think that ends up being a contract they end up eating.

Napoli doesn't need to bounce back to 2011 levels - even an OPS around his career .859 would make him worth the money, he's not blocking anyone, and there wasn't anyone else out there that wouldn't cost prospects/draft picks. Victorino's deal is much more suspect imo (even if it's not much of an overpay with the new market), and is the one we'll likely be eating money from in a deal next offseason or the one after.

Originally Posted by Logan

The Mets will probably give you Dickey for him.

I'd jump on that in a minute, but it doesn't look like the Sox want to trade Ellsbury now, and the Mets are definitely asking for too much. Their first offer was reportedly Bogaerts and Bradley Jr.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Blanton 2 years 15 million

good luck with that

[sterlingice]

Royals saber fans at DEFCON 1 as there are rumors that a Myers for Shields trade is on the table but Friedman wants more than Myers to get it done while the Royals are seriously mulling it over.

SI

[RedKingGold]

Phillies acquire OF Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May. Not sure if I like this move, I've always thought Worley was overrated but I really know nothing about Revere. From what I've read, Revere is a solid, slightly above-average player who will be cheap over the next few seasons and his biggest problem is health (5'9'' and 170).

Phillies are also supposedly deep in conversation for Michael Young, but those talks have been rumored for several seasons now without a deal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

good luck with that

Yeah, color me less than excited at the Blanton addition. Hey, guys, you think maybe just maybe we can go for a pitcher with an ground-to-fly ratio above 50% for once? Do you think? And maybe do a little bit better than a guy with a 4.71 ERA in the pitching league.

So that puts the Angels' likely rotation at Weaver-Wilson-Hanson-Blanton-Richards. It's not a crap rotation, but it's certainly not the uber-rotation we had (on paper) last year, and we didn't even make the playoffs with that rotation.

Angels have more or less said, too, that they are out on Greinke.

[stevew]

Myers has hit so well throughout the minors that it would probably be justifiable homicide for a fan to murder Moore for trading him.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, color me less than excited at the Blanton addition. Hey, guys, you think maybe just maybe we can go for a pitcher with an ground-to-fly ratio about 50%?

If you really are starting Bourjos and Trout in the OF, GB/FB shouldn't be as big a deal as it would for other years/teams.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Royals saber fans at DEFCON 1 as there are rumors that a Myers for Shields trade is on the table but Friedman wants more than Myers to get it done while the Royals are seriously mulling it over.

There's also the rumor that KC approached Boston about Myers for Lester and the Sox said not even worth discussing... I'm not sure I buy either, but maybe Myers has less value than people think.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

If you really are starting Bourjos and Trout in the OF, GB/FB shouldn't be as big a deal as it would for other years/teams.

Well, I'm not worried about the flies falling inside of the fences, ya know?

[stevew]

Youk to the Yankees is a great move if it happens.

[ISiddiqui]

The bonus is that Red Sox Nation would go ape shit!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The bonus is that Red Sox Nation would go ape shit!

Eh - I dunno about that so much.

[ISiddiqui]

I know people who still consider Johnny Damon a traitor (and then get mad when I point out how the Sox got him originally )

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by stevew

Myers has hit so well throughout the minors that it would probably be justifiable homicide for a fan to murder Moore for trading him.

I get if you're close and want to trade more future wins for current marginal wins when the current wins are more valuable. But 2013 is not that year.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And maybe do a little bit better than a guy with a 4.71 ERA in the pitching league.

I was thinking "c'mon, he couldn't have been that bad compared to the rest of the league", so I looked it up.

There were 46 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA lead in the NL last year. Blanton was 45th, ahead of only Tim Lincecum. Only 4 pitchers with that many innings in the NL had a worse WAR: Correira, Zito, Hanson and Lincecum.

Okay, I give ... this is that bad an acquisition.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Phillies acquire OF Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May. Not sure if I like this move, I've always thought Worley was overrated but I really know nothing about Revere. From what I've read, Revere is a solid, slightly above-average player who will be cheap over the next few seasons and his biggest problem is health (5'9'' and 170).

Phillies are also supposedly deep in conversation for Michael Young, but those talks have been rumored for several seasons now without a deal.

I don't think health has been an issue with Revere but he is fairly small so it could be an issue playing every day. His two biggest issues are a very weak arm and zero power. He's an extreme ground ball hitter who has only managed 33 xbh and no home runs in about 1000 major league plate appearances.

But he is blazing fast and will cover a lot of ground in center field. And he should hit for a good average although he doesn't walk much. Basically Juan Pierre is his upside.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I get if you're close and want to trade more future wins for current marginal wins when the current wins are more valuable. But 2013 is not that year.

SI

I'm not opposed to trading Myers for a front of the rotation starter if the deal is right. Problem is Shields is not a front line starter away from The Trop and you're giving up six years of a cheap Myers for two years of a guy who has a half-run higher road ERA than Jeremy Guthrie.

The rumors I've seen are that the Royals are interested in Dickey but not if Myers is the price. If the Royals traded Myers for Lester, I think both GMs would be burned if effigy, even though the Red Sox would be the clear winners. Myers could be a beast in Fenway.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Ryche

I don't think health has been an issue with Revere but he is fairly small so it could be an issue playing every day. His two biggest issues are a very weak arm and zero power. He's an extreme ground ball hitter who has only managed 33 xbh and no home runs in about 1000 major league plate appearances.

But he is blazing fast and will cover a lot of ground in center field. And he should hit for a good average although he doesn't walk much. Basically Juan Pierre is his upside.

Intesting, and thanks for the info. Juan Pierre on his downside did pretty well in the same role last year.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I was thinking "c'mon, he couldn't have been that bad compared to the rest of the league", so I looked it up.

There were 46 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA lead in the NL last year. Blanton was 45th, ahead of only Tim Lincecum. Only 4 pitchers with that many innings in the NL had a worse WAR: Correira, Zito, Hanson and Lincecum.

Okay, I give ... this is that bad an acquisition.

Damn... okay, ignorance is bliss, lol. Now I'm depressed.

What a stupid deal. It's not "let's trade our only good hitting catcher and our starting left fielder for an injury-prone overrated outfielder with $80 M left on his four year deal", but it's still a very stupid deal.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I know people who still consider Johnny Damon a traitor (and then get mad when I point out how the Sox got him originally )

Those people are generally idiots, much like Damon, but Damon went straight from Boston to NY at the height of the rivalry after 2 epic 7-game ALCS's where Youkilis has been run out of town, and we don't exactly appear to be competing with just them for the WS like that mid-2000's stretch.

Originally Posted by kcchief19

If the Royals traded Myers for Lester, I think both GMs would be burned if effigy

That's the sign of a good deal

I'm not sure about the Sox being clear winners - I'd still support it, but a lot depends on whether you think Lester is declining or just had a bad year. He'll be 29, pitched 190+ innings, had a K/9 of about 9, and an ERA below 3.50 for 4 straight years before last year. He never quite made the leap to Cy Young contender and "Ace" status, but he was a top 5-10 pitcher in the AL. And Myers of course has the great Minor League track record, but no MLB time - there's always a chance he could be a bust like a Delmon Young.

Sox sign Koji Uehara to 1 year/4.25m deal. Great pickup.

[stevew]

Michael Young to the Phillies.

The Bill James favorite toy gives Young a 37% chance at 3000 hits. Will be interested to see if he can maintain enough defense to work in the NL. Or if he can subsist as a Paul Molitor type until he gets 3000(needs 770more)

[MrBug708]

6/145

[Crapshoot]

I hate you guys Bug. I'm worried that the Dodgers are getting so rich even Agent Ned couldn't fuck it up.

[SackAttack]

6/147 are the final numbers, I believe. $12m signing bonus, $17m in 2013. Then 24/23/24/23/24 for the final five years.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

6/147 are the final numbers, I believe. $12m signing bonus, $17m in 2013. Then 24/23/24/23/24 for the final five years.

I think that the general consensus is that deals for pitchers that are 5 or more are generally losers for the teams. I like the deal now, but 5 years from now, we'll all look back and know that they never got their money's worth.