Poker hand question

[kingfc22]

Today I played in my 2nd tournament at Bay 101. The Buy-in is $50 with $20 RBA.

Last week I finished 17th out of 99 and really couldn't get anything going late. Top 10 got paid.

Today I finished 23rd out of 100 with top 18 paying out.


The hand (all-in or fold):
I was on the button with 99 and $5000 in chips. Blinds are 500/1000.

First position raised to $4000. He was a tight/aggressive player and he had caught AA twice in the past 10 minutes. I played with him the whole tournament (3 hrs) and had seen him make similiar raises with AK and AQ. Last time he had a big pocket pair he only raised 2xBB.

Everyone folded to me. In my mind, I put him on two high cards since he raised 4xBB and trying to force everyone out. I pushed all-in hoping I was right and he turned over AA. He called the last $1000 and won the hand and I missed a payday by 5 spots.

I could have gone around the table 2 more times without playing a hand and possibly have squeezed into a money position. Did I make the right play or should I have folded and waited for a better opportunity?

[Simms]

You trusted your read, and he made a good play to disguise his hand based on his betting patterns. Hindsight's 20/20, but it sounds like you fell into a pretty well-orchestrated trap. Good play by him.

That said, are you playing to win, or are you playing just to make the money? If it's the former, then you definitely have to push here, as there's no guarantee that you'll see a hand better than 99 before you get blinded off. If your only goal is to make your money back, then even if you think he has AK/AQ (two pretty powerful overcards), then you can make an argument for waiting for a better chance, cause even then, you're barely better than a coinflip, but that also depends on the chip stacks of the others left. If you're 5 out of the money but you're already the short-stack, then I think you have to push no matter what. If you look around and there's 2-4 others with even less than you, then you might hold back.

I think you gotta push though. My $0.02.

[dixieflatline]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I was on the button with 99 and $5000 in chips. Blinds are 500/1000.

All of my chips would be in the center of the pot and I wouldn't think twice about it. You M is just above 3 this isn't the question(M=chips/bb+sb+ante).

The real question is how did you let your chip stack get so low? When you get down to an M of 10 you have to start getting and pushing to avoid getting into this situation. If you haven't read Harrington on Hold'em Vol II I would highly recommend it. He deals with situations like this in completely detail. My guess is that if you made a mistake in the tourney it happened before your bustout hand.

[Honolulu Blue]

I'm assuming you were at a full table.

With that caveat, I disagree with my esteemed colleagues and I disagree with your play. This is a CLEAR fold if he's as tight as you say. A pair of 9s is a good hand and you'd be happy to push 'em IF YOU'RE THE FIRST ONE IN. But Mr. Tighty is implying that he either has two high cards or a pretty big pair. He could've been trying a steal, but UTG with a decent stack size (another assumption), I don't think he'd do that.

The better play, IMO, is to push just about anything at the next clean opportunity (i.e., no one else in the pot).

[dixieflatline]

Originally Posted by Honolulu Blue

I'm assuming you were at a full table.

With that caveat, I disagree with my esteemed colleagues and I disagree with your play. This is a CLEAR fold if he's as tight as you say. A pair of 9s is a good hand and you'd be happy to push 'em IF YOU'RE THE FIRST ONE IN. But Mr. Tighty is implying that he either has two high cards or a pretty big pair. He could've been trying a steal, but UTG with a decent stack size (another assumption), I don't think he'd do that.

The better play, IMO, is to push just about anything at the next clean opportunity (i.e., no one else in the pot).

Sorry but I can't let this thread die with this being the last message. I agree that you would like to be the first one in, and he should still be pushing even if he wins this hand when it's folded around to him, but this situation is just too good to fold. There are no tight players when the blinds get high. If UTG is a good player he realizes this and will be raising with many hands here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ax here. Even if UTG always has overs or an overpair it's still a push because the 1500 chips in the blinds. The pot odds are really 1.3:1 and you would have to have a great read to let this one go. This doesn't even take into consideration how short hero is.

If you are laying down 99 are you also laying down TT, JJ, AQ?

[Honolulu Blue]

Originally Posted by dixieflatline

I agree that you would like to be the first one in, and he should still be pushing even if he wins this hand when it's folded around to him, but this situation is just too good to fold. There are no tight players when the blinds get high. If UTG is a good player he realizes this and will be raising with many hands here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ax here. Even if UTG always has overs or an overpair it's still a push because the 1500 chips in the blinds. The pot odds are really 1.3:1 and you would have to have a great read to let this one go. This doesn't even take into consideration how short hero is.

If you are laying down 99 are you also laying down TT, JJ, AQ?

I've thought about this hand some more and I think I was a little hasty in my judgment. If the table were 4 or 5-handed OR Mr. Tighty had been bullying the table around with blind steals and such OR Mr. Tighty had a small stack, then I say grit your teeth and call.

Not here.

I'd put Mr. Tighty on a real hand here not because of any reads, but because he made a standard raise with 8 players left to act when he didn't have to. Against good hands, our hero is about 50-50 to survive. Perversely, he'd be better off raising with, say, 98o, on the next hand if it's folded his way or he's UTG. There's a fair chance the blinds will give up and he can pick up the blinds uncontested. Of course, junk hands sometimes win and he can double up that way...

To answer your question, I'd chuck 10s, play the jacks, and maybe AQ.

P.S. I really wish I had chip information for everyone, including table location and the average stacks.

[Subby]

The type of raise that UTG made screams AK, AQ or middle pair to me.

You were just unlucky that he had AA.

You would be out of your mind not to push at this point.

[Subby]

dola

In the future - it is more helpful if you set up the situation, but don't reveal the results until more discussion has taken place (in other words, don't let us in on villian's hand or your action). I think it is difficult to have a purely strategic discussion with the taint of results in the mix.

[kingfc22]

I think my main concern was whether or not I should have folded since a payout was only 5 spots away and hoped to steal a pot in the next couple of hands. At the same time, I thought this was a good chance to double up and put me in a good spot for a run.

8 person table at this point.

UTG was a big stack around 20K. (tight and solid)
CO medium stack folded (tight)
Seat 3 small stack 2500 folded (loose and not very good)
Seat 4 had 12k folded (tight)
Seat 5 had 4k folded (not much info on this player)
Button (hero) had 5k
SB had roughly 10k (loose)
BB had $15k (loose)

[sabotai]

Hmm, up until now I was pretty much with dixie, but knowing that half of your table was short stacked (a few shorter than you), I might have folded and tried to coast a bit to get paid. At you table a lone, you have two who could have been gone before you easily, not to mention what the other tables looked like.

(I say this only because of your specific situation, where half of the people playing seem to be short stacked and close to the pay out. Normally, I would push without thinking about it)

[Honolulu Blue]

Thanks for sharing. Everyone had small stacks relative to the blinds, and I assume this was true at the other tables as well. So most everyone should have been feeling the pressure to make a move, and not just our hero. That said, I doubt the money positions would have been decided before he got blinded off.

Mr. Tighty was in relatively good shape and could bully around half the table, but the other half could wound him in a confrontation. If he's as good as you'd say, I'd think he'd wait for the button to come around and then try blind stealing.

It's close, but I still favor folding & waiting for better opportunities later.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I could have gone around the table 2 more times without playing a hand and possibly have squeezed into a money position. Did I make the right play or should I have folded and waited for a better opportunity?

These important considerations to me. Subby makes a good point -- knowing the results taints some of the consideration -- in standard situations given other information, going all-in with a pocket pair regardless of what it is would seem to be a no-brainer.

If you're willing to take the risk, however. If your goal is to win the whole thing or finish near the top, you have to push because you're shortstacked and need to double up quickly. If your goal is make the money, I think this would be a possible fold given what you're up against; a tight/aggressive player on a roll with more chips than you.

On the one hand, you're probably a slight favorite to stay alive, but I'd rather be up against someone who is more likely to have lesser cards -- this guy is screaming that he has good cards.

If you walk away, based on the scenario you presented, it sounds like you could see another 10-15 hands before you're down to the felt. If my goal were to just make the money, I might muck this hand, wait for a better opportunity and not take this stack on when he's on a rush. If there are other stacks in worse shape than you, you might be able to make the money without playing another hand or cashing in on a couple of overcards or pocket pair against a more favorable opponent.

I think the math and odds back up the way you played it. But depending on your goals and priorities I think there's a way to walk away from this. I doubt that I would have, but I don't know.