Help me win $500 (NFL betting related)

Joe · 09-07-2005, 07:39 PM

So I got this free 6-team parlay bet card from an online sportsbook that I frequent (sportsinteraction.com), as part of their NFL kickoff promotion. All 6 will snag me $500. Week 1 is always difficult, and some of these games even moreso than usual. Chicago/Washington? Blah. Anywho, take a look and post any thoughts.

The games I have to play are:

Indianapolis (-3) at Baltimore (+3)
Dallas (+4.5) at San Diego (-4.5)
Arizona (+2) at NY Giants (-2)
NY Jets (+3) at Kansas City (-3)
Denver (-3.5) at Miami (+3.5)
Chicago (+5.5) at Washington (-5.5)

My initial thoughts are Indy, San Diego, Arizona, Kansas City, Denver, and Chicago. Though I really have no idea on that last game.

Lathum · 09-07-2005, 07:40 PM

are over/under's available?

Joe · 09-07-2005, 07:52 PM

nope, can only pick from those 6 games and its just the point spreads.

gottimd · 09-07-2005, 07:54 PM

Those are the only 6 games they give you? And are the lines set, or will they shift?

RPI-Fan · 09-07-2005, 07:56 PM

Forcing games on you basically means you have a 1/(2^6) chance of winning, or a little under 2%.

Joe · 09-07-2005, 08:01 PM

I'll take that 2%, since its a free play

and lines are set, they won't shift.

gottimd · 09-07-2005, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George W Bush

I'll take that 2%, since its a free play

and lines are set, they won't shift.

That sucks, cuz what I am looking at now has Arz at +3, but Denver has jumped to -4.5. Overall I agree with your choices, that last one is very hard. I am thinking the game will be 17-13 Washington, but who knows.

RPI-Fan · 09-07-2005, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Indianapolis (-3) at Baltimore (+3)
Dallas (+4.5) at San Diego (-4.5)
Arizona (+2) at NY Giants (-2)
NY Jets (+3) at Kansas City (-3)
Denver (-3.5) at Miami (+3.5)
Chicago (+5.5) at Washington (-5.5)

My picks:

Baltimore +3 -- Indy is a sucker bet... playing on grass against a very good Baltimore pass defense, you have to take the points here.

San Diego -4.5 -- Jones will have a disappointing year, as San Diego's underrated defense will put a lot of pressure on Bledsoe (who is very slow getting rid of the ball anyways). No Gates stinks, but the Charges running game will grind down the 'Boys.

'Zona +2 -- Although 'Zona is a trendy pick, I'd have a hard time going against them here if they were LAYING 2 points.

KC -3 -- I like KC to wear down the somewhat shallow Jets D late in the game.

Miami +3.5 -- When unsure, playing the home dog early on is never that bad of a move. I think Ronnie Brown will surprise people, and I like the points in a low-scoring game.

Chicago +5.5 -- Love that many points in what I call a toss-up game.

gottimd · 09-07-2005, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

My picks:

Baltimore +3 -- Indy is a sucker bet... playing on grass against a very good Baltimore pass defense, you have to take the points here.

I would agree with you on this if Indy was playing a squad that could put up some points as well. Even if they have a great pass D, Indy will be able to strike a few times, and Baltimore, who knows if Boller will be able to get that offense going. Even if it is low scoring, I don't see Baltimore staying within 3 of that offense no matter how good the Raven D is.

cthomer5000 · 09-07-2005, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gottimd

I would agree with you on this if Indy was playing a squad that could put up some points as well. Even if they have a great pass D, Indy will be able to strike a few times, and Baltimore, who knows if Boller will be able to get that offense going. Even if it is low scoring, I don't see Baltimore staying within 3 of that offense no matter how good the Raven D is.

Agreed. I think it's going to be low scoring, in the 17-10 or 17-13 range, but the Colts will win.

cthomer5000 · 09-10-2005, 11:25 PM

so who did you end up picking?

Joe · 09-10-2005, 11:35 PM

ended up staying with my initial picks, with one change from denver to miami. so it is indy, san diego, arizona, kc, miami, and chicago. I am not sure about the ny/kc game as much anymore, since some stuff i am reading is saying that the Jets will be a contender this year and knock off the Pats as AFC champs. Well, that's mostly Cris Carter, and he's crazy, right? Right?

Joe · 09-11-2005, 02:54 PM

So far, so good. Chicago covered, only losing by 2. And both Miami and KC are on their way to blowout wins. I have also come to the conclusion that Cris Carter is on crack (see above post).

Fouts · 09-11-2005, 05:23 PM

You took Miami or Denver?

cthomer5000 · 09-11-2005, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts

You took Miami or Denver?

.

Quote:

indy, san diego, arizona, kc, miami, and chicago

Fouts · 09-11-2005, 05:28 PM

Ok, I was reading the first post.

Karlifornia · 09-11-2005, 05:30 PM

If Arizona can stage a comeback, then you'll still be alive.

Joe · 09-11-2005, 06:50 PM

well that didnt end up well. week 1 craziness, but it was still fun for a free play.

B & B · 09-12-2005, 09:15 AM

FWIW - I had Arizona also.

SD/Dall could have gone either way really

09-07-2005, 07:54 PM	#4
gottimd Dearly Missed (9/25/77-12/23/08) Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: DC Suburbs	Those are the only 6 games they give you? And are the lines set, or will they shift? __________________ NAFL New Orleans Saints GM/Co-Commish MP Career Record: 114-85 NAFL Super Bowl XI Champs In memory of Gavin Anthony: 7/22/08-7/26/08

09-07-2005, 07:56 PM	#5
RPI-Fan Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Troy, NY	Forcing games on you basically means you have a 1/(2^6) chance of winning, or a little under 2%. __________________ Quis custodiets ipsos custodes?

09-11-2005, 05:30 PM	#17
Karlifornia Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: San Jose, CA	If Arizona can stage a comeback, then you'll still be alive. __________________ Look into the mind of a crazy man (NSFW) http://www.whitepowerupdate.wordpress.com

09-12-2005, 09:15 AM	#19
B & B College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: A sports era long ago when everything didnt require a Nike logo	FWIW - I had Arizona also. SD/Dall could have gone either way really __________________ Nobody cares about Kyle Orton because he's black. -PT

09-07-2005, 07:40 PM	#2
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	are over/under's available?

09-07-2005, 07:52 PM	#3
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	nope, can only pick from those 6 games and its just the point spreads.

09-07-2005, 08:01 PM	#6
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	I'll take that 2%, since its a free play and lines are set, they won't shift.

09-10-2005, 11:35 PM	#12
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	ended up staying with my initial picks, with one change from denver to miami. so it is indy, san diego, arizona, kc, miami, and chicago. I am not sure about the ny/kc game as much anymore, since some stuff i am reading is saying that the Jets will be a contender this year and knock off the Pats as AFC champs. Well, that's mostly Cris Carter, and he's crazy, right? Right?

09-11-2005, 02:54 PM	#13
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	So far, so good. Chicago covered, only losing by 2. And both Miami and KC are on their way to blowout wins. I have also come to the conclusion that Cris Carter is on crack (see above post).

09-11-2005, 05:23 PM	#14
Fouts College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: California	You took Miami or Denver?

09-11-2005, 05:28 PM	#16
Fouts College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: California	Ok, I was reading the first post.

09-11-2005, 06:50 PM	#18
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	well that didnt end up well. week 1 craziness, but it was still fun for a free play.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)