Poker hand analysis

[Honolulu Blue]

I saw a rather extraordinary hand yesterday. I'll try to set up things as well as I can:

It's a $10+$1 sit-and-go which originally had 10 players. It was down to 7 players and the blinds were only 10-20 (level 2), which should give you a hint about how fast and loose the game was playing. Our hero had personally busted two players and was up over 3000 chips. Everyone started with 1000. Here's the rest of the chip counts:

Seat 1 (small blind) - 1025 chips
Seat 3 (big blind) - 145
Seat 4 (our hero) - 3075
Seat 5 - 655
Seat 6 - 2060
Seat 7 - 1865
Seat 8 - 1030

Hero catches two black 8s and raises to 80. Seat 5 calls. Seats 6 and 7 fold. Seat 8 calls. Seat 1 calls out of the small blind. The big blind in seat 3 raises all in, or 65 more. Everyone calls. Five players see the flop.

The flop is 5d, 2d, 8d giving our hero trips, but putting a possible flush on board. Seat 1 goes all in. It's 880 to our hero.

What should he do?

I'll cover what our hero did and what happened in a day or two. But I'm interested in everyone's opinion and logic.

[SirFozzie]

Pot Bet. Need to make people pay for their draws. If it was rainbow, I would bet a small amount, to get info on where I am in the hand. Check raising is too blatant, people will either know I have a big over pair, or trips (maybe A8, but I think the fact you've already butsted two people should have you earned a good rep at the table)

[Vince]

Foz, the guy in front of him went all-in. It's 880 to call for the hero.

I think you have to call -- or maybe it's just that I can't lay down top set. In any case, it would be horribly difficult to fold that hand.

[sabotai]

Hmm. I think I would fold. It's early in the tournament, you already busted out 2 people and you'd be risking your sizable chip lead on the hope that Seat 1 doesn't have a flush. If he does, you are a big underdog. You say the table is loose, so it's good and possible that he is just trying to buy the pot or has a bad hand and thinks it's good. It's also quite possible he was dealt two random diamonds and played them. I say you make the tactical decision to fold here and wait for more favorable hands to push your weight around.

[SirFozzie]

Call. He's 4 to 1 to make the flush if he has a single diamond, and if the board pairs, you win.

[AlexB]

I'm still learning a lot about this game, and a lot of this depends on the table and how players have bet before this hand, but my read is trips is strong, and my guess is you're in a coin flip situation - he needs to hit a card for a flush or straight.

I would probably call as you would still have 2000 chips or so if you lose, blinds still low so plenty of time, but you could get into a really dominant position. Limping in suggests hoping to hit a flop, which the 3 diamonds could well be what he was hoping for.

Of course there are two straight flush draws, but I still think this a relatively low risk call given risk vs. reward, bearing in mind I'm still a relative rookie.

[Radii]

easy call. hope someone else w/ a high diamond comes in behind.

If your opponent has a flush already you're 2:1 against winning the hand, almost good enoug odds right there if your opponent flipped up Ad Kd (pot is 1605, 880 to call). Factor in any sort of a potential bluff/weaker hand than a made flush and this is a mandatory call from a strict pot odds perspective. It doesn't bust you if you lose, there's a chance other hands/draws will come in behind you, this is a golden opportunity for you. Call every time.

[Radii]

Also, its worth pointing out that the worst possible hand your opponent could hold... 6d 7d for the made flush + open ended SF draw, doesn't really change anything here. AK diamonds beats you 65.5% of the time while 76 diamonds only beats you 67.5% of the time, SF draws aren't' worth factoring in at all here.

Other odds:

your hand vs pocket Aces with the ace of diamonds: 65/35 in your favor

your hand vs 55 (set over set) - 91/5 in your favor

Again, you have to consider pot odds here, not just "am I beat or not" ...

[Fouts]

Easy call for me especially with the chip lead. If he has the flush, I wouldn't think he would want to chase anyone out. I'd put him on an overpair with a diamond or a small set?

[Comey]

Agree on the easy call. Even if he has the flush, you have seven outs, plus whatever comes if the board doesn't pair on the turn. Based on you still being very healthy with your stack even if you lose, this call is very, very easy.

[Vince]

I'm guessing the guy has Ad x, with x being either a 2 or a 5. Maybe even the case 8. But yeah, like Radii explained -- the chances that he has hands that are NOT beating you at the time make it a good call.

Personally, I think that he's got a good semi-bluff hand, and is trying to eliminate all but the guy who went all-in pre-flop.

[Lathum]

Easy call. You are only risking about 1/3 of your stack. Since he just limped in the big blind and called with 5 players in I would put him on a weak ace A8 or even a small pair.

My gut says he also hit a set, maybe dueces and he is trying to push everyone from their draw while representing the flush.

The odds of flopping a flush are about 121-1

[larrymcg421]

I really doubt he has the flush already. That bet doesn't make sense if he does. Certainly he would want to be paid off and not try to make anyone fold. I would put him on a nut flush draw or a lower set and call.

[Maple Leafs]

A bluff is unlikely if he's paying attention to how loose the game is, but on the other hand an all-in smells funny here if he has the flush already. An overpair would also be a surprise since he only limped with that much money already in the pot pre-flop. My guess is he has the Ad, maybe even with the other 8.

I'd call him, and if he has the flush and you don't hit your boat you shrug and say oh well. You'll still be at the top of the chip lead and you can tighten up a bit if you feel like it.

[BigJohn&TheLions]

Best hand I ever had: 5-card draw, deuces wild. K-K-K-2-2. When the one guy who thought he had it made put his Royal Flush on the table he went to grab the pot (Several hundred.) I laid mine out... Talk about jaws hitting the floor!

I did the right thing and kept playing for another hour. He won about half his money back. Still, they never invited me back...

[robbgmaier]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Easy call. You are only risking about 1/3 of your stack. Since he just limped in the big blind and called with 5 players in I would put him on a weak ace A8 or even a small pair.

My gut says he also hit a set, maybe dueces and he is trying to push everyone from their draw while representing the flush.

The odds of flopping a flush are about 121-1

/nitpick alert/

i'm not saying that's not a useful factoid, but in fact the board did come up a 3 flush, and those odds are no longer entirely accurate. now if you want to figure out what the odds are of one of the other 4 players having been dealt a pair of diamonds.....we can talk

/end nitpick/

[robbgmaier]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I really doubt he has the flush already. That bet doesn't make sense if he does. Certainly he would want to be paid off and not try to make anyone fold. I would put him on a nut flush draw or a lower set and call.

if he has a baby flush he would want to scare off a guy with a high diamond, or at least make him pay the maximum to see two cards. if i were at the table he'd have played 6d3d or something similar.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by robbgmaier

/nitpick alert/

i'm not saying that's not a useful factoid, but in fact the board did come up a 3 flush, and those odds are no longer entirely accurate. now if you want to figure out what the odds are of one of the other 4 players having been dealt a pair of diamonds.....we can talk

/end nitpick/

Doing quick math (and not knowing how to calculate odds), I came up with a .19% chance of being dealt a flush after the flop. There is a 3.8% chance of having been dealt two diamonds if three diamonds are used in the flop. The flush would appear to be about 19 times more likely now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by robbgmaier

/nitpick alert/

i'm not saying that's not a useful factoid, but in fact the board did come up a 3 flush, and those odds are no longer entirely accurate. now if you want to figure out what the odds are of one of the other 4 players having been dealt a pair of diamonds.....we can talk

/end nitpick/

Flopping a flush - 118/1


I don't see how the odds aren't accurate? Weather or not 3 suited cards came on the flop don't change the odds at all. I don't understand your argument.

[cthomer5000]

I'd call the all in. You're basically still chip leader (or damn close to it) with a loss on this hand, and you're probably ahead in the hand. The guy probably wouldn't push with a flush (but might with a small flush). And you do have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to best his hand even if he does have the flush.

FWIW, I'd be much, much more likely to fold if there were a large stack behind me that could put me all in (or close to it). You have the advantage in this hand of making that a non-issue.

[sabotai]

...Can I change my decision? (Can you tell I don't play anymore. )

[Honolulu Blue]

Thanks for all of the analysis. The hero (yours truly) folded. Here's what was going through my mind at the time:

1) The pot odds were a bit under 2-1 (put in 880 to win 1605) and could get better. Not bad.
2) I've got a significant chip lead and could probably drift into the money if I keep my nose clean and stay out of trouble.
3) It would cost about 30% of my stack to call.
4) If I won, I could practice my big stack bullying skills against everyone who's left.
5) If I lost to the big blind only, I'd lose a tiny portion of my stack that wasn't worth worrying about
6) If I lost to seat 5, I'd lose more, but he'd still have fewer chips than I did.
7) If I lost to either seat 1 or 8, they'd have more chips than me.
8) What kind of hand would call a raise and a reraise before the flop?

a) Big cards. They'd need runner-runner to beat my set.
b) A pair. Anything lower than 8s would be drawing very thin. A higher pair would have two outs.
c) Suited cards. Not a worry, unless they're diamonds. So, where are they? Does anyone have them?

9) I had 7 outs even if someone had a flush, but...
10) Someone with a diamond has 9 outs to beat me.
11) Two players still were waiting their turn.

12) What kind of hand would go all in into three active players?

a) A made flush. The nightmare scenario for me. I'd still have those 7 outs.
b) Pocket 5s or 2s that are now trips. Little to worry about from them.
c) A8. This would take me down to six outs. If the ace is of diamonds, then he has the usual 9 outs.
d) Pair + diamond. A semi-bluff, but the diamond gives him 9 outs.
e) A bluff. Always possible, but very dangerous for the bluffer.

After calculating all the factors, I decided to stay out of trouble. Nine times out of 10 I would push with my trips. The combination of factors described above made this the one I couldn't push.

After my fold, seats 5 and 8 folded, seat 1 got most of his bet back, and the cards were flipped. Seat 1 had Jh, As - a stone cold bluff, albeit with high cards. Grrrrr.... Seat 3 had 4h, 5h and was in the lead with a pair.

The turn was 4d, making two pair for Seat 3. Seat 1 couldn't win at this point, but nine cards would make a flush and split the pot.

The river was 7c. Seat 3 took the pot.

BTW, I went on to finish second in this wild & wacky tourney.

[Fouts]

I didn't even know there was a seat two or that there were two people in the pot already.

[Honolulu Blue]

Originally Posted by Fouts

I didn't even know there was a seat two or that there were two people in the pot already.

Seat 2 had busted out. I was talking about seat 3, who had raised all in preflop. I've fixed my original post and apologize for any misunderstandings.

[msf518]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

I'd call the all in. You're basically still chip leader (or damn close to it) with a loss on this hand, and you're probably ahead in the hand. The guy probably wouldn't push with a flush (but might with a small flush). And you do have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to best his hand even if he does have the flush.

FWIW, I'd be much, much more likely to fold if there were a large stack behind me that could put me all in (or close to it). You have the advantage in this hand of making that a non-issue.

This is the correct answer.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Flopping a flush - 118/1

I don't see how the odds aren't accurate? Weather or not 3 suited cards came on the flop don't change the odds at all. I don't understand your argument.

Your odds may be right, but he's arguing that it doesn't matter once the flop has come with three suited.

It's like saying that the odd of flipping a coin five times and having it be heads every time is 1-in-32. If you flip the coin four times and it's heads each time, the fifth flip is still 50/50. The original 1-in-32 doesn't matter anymore, just like the original 118/1 doesn't matter once their are already thre suited on the board.

It's a pretty obvious point to everyone here, but I actually saw the exact error he's talking about in a book. It described a similar situation to this (suited flop), then mentioned that you didn't need to worry much about the flush because the odds against your opponent having on was 118-1. I stopped reading the book.

[larrymcg421]

I play pretty aggressively, but when you get a chip lead like this, you have to use that to your advantage. In this case, you're still in good shape even if you lose, and you have a set. Even if the guy has a flush, you still have outs. I understand your concerns, but you have to weigh the risk with the rewards. When you have a big lead, you should side with the risk mroe often than not.

[larrymcg421]

I agree with Robb and Maple Leafs. The odds of flopping a certain hand are meaningless postflop. I mean, if I saw a flop of three 8's and I had Big Slick, I'd still be worried that someone has the other 8 and wouldn't even consider the basic odds of someone flopping quads.