Freezing the Kicker

[21C]

It's long been a tactic of coaches to call a timeout just as the opposing kicker is lining up for a FG in the last few minutes of a game or half. The idea is to give them a little more time to think about the situation, get more nervous and hopefully shank the kick.

Now I've always blindly followed this logic and thought that teams should always do this when the situation arises.

But now I'm starting to wonder if it makes any difference. Is there any statistical evidence that kickers are more prone to misses after a timeout is called? Do teams just do it because they are "expected" to?

Postscript - I had been thinking about this situation for a while and then it seemed to work in the SD - Jets game when SD kicker Nate Kaeding was frozen and subsequently missed a 40 yarder that would have won the game in OT. It just seems that 90% of the time it doesn't matter at all.

Do teams do it just for that 10% ( or 1% or whatever ) that it does work?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by 21c

It's long been a tactic of coaches to call a timeout just as the opposing kicker is lining up for a FG in the last few minutes of a game or half. The idea is to give them a little more time to think about the situation, get more nervous and hopefully shank the kick.

Now I've always blindly followed this logic and thought that teams should always do this when the situation arises.

But now I'm starting to wonder if it makes any difference. Is there any statistical evidence that kickers are more prone to misses after a timeout is called? Do teams just do it because they are "expected" to?

Postscript - I had been thinking about this situation for a while and then it seemed to work in the SD - Jets game when SD kicker Nate Kaeding was frozen and subsequently missed a 40 yarder that would have won the game in OT. It just seems that 90% of the time it doesn't matter at all.

Do teams do it just for that 10% ( or 1% or whatever ) that it does work?

To actually analyze it, you'd need a gigantic amount of data (since you'd need very high precision to make any conclusions).

The one thing I am certain of is that coaches definitely don't do this based on empircal evidence.

[illinifan999]

Then again it didn't work on the other end.

[DaddyTorgo]

i don't think you can argue that kaeding froze. more like his coach (coach of the year how??) had a rookie kicker kicking a 40-yd FG in overtime on third down after running the ball straight into the line again and again. Either try to move the ball downfield or let the kid kick it on first down so he doesn't have all that time to think. Kaeding will also probably say he messed-up as he didn't push it back left but kept it straight.

[cthomer5000]

My gut feeling is that it probably has almost no effect. I can however imagine it has a greater chance of having an effect on a rookie in such a big situation. A veteran is much more likely (IMHO) to just tune that crap out and kick the ball.

[Logan]

If you want to start thinking about this psychologically, I've thought that it could work to NOT call a timeout in an attempt to freeze the kicker.

Think of it like this. You're a kicker whose team is down 2 with 4 seconds left, the ball on your opponents' 26 yard line. Conditions aren't good, it's rainy with a nice, stiff wind. You walk on to the field, and start lining up in your spot, but you don't want to get too intense and focused, because you know the other coach will call a timeout, maybe even two. You're waiting for it, and all of a sudden, you realize it's not coming. The play clock is counting down fast, the holder asks if you're ready, you hurriedly say "yes," here's the snap, not perfect, you stride and kick -- a shank. All because you never got into your normal mental state before a kick.

[cthomer5000]

While I can believe that maybe, I highly doubt it. I would guess that most players are completely oblivious to the timeout situations of their time and the opponent. So I doubt it even crosses the mind of a kicker unless his special teams coach just told him before he went out there.

[JimboJ]

I think it could definitely have a psychological effect. Haven't you ever been in a nerve-wracking situation where all you wanted to do was get it over with, and the more you thought about it, the more nervous you got.

If you have a timeout, and you're about to lose the game, what do you have to lose by calling the timeout? It might work and it might not, but you have to try anything you can.

[21C]

Originally Posted by Logan

If you want to start thinking about this psychologically, I've thought that it could work to NOT call a timeout in an attempt to freeze the kicker.

Think of it like this. You're a kicker whose team is down 2 with 4 seconds left, the ball on your opponents' 26 yard line. Conditions aren't good, it's rainy with a nice, stiff wind. You walk on to the field, and start lining up in your spot, but you don't want to get too intense and focused, because you know the other coach will call a timeout, maybe even two. You're waiting for it, and all of a sudden, you realize it's not coming. The play clock is counting down fast, the holder asks if you're ready, you hurriedly say "yes," here's the snap, not perfect, you stride and kick -- a shank. All because you never got into your normal mental state before a kick.

That's sort of what I was thinking. I'm sure there are guys who don't respond to running out on the field, trying to set their kicking spot and get their kick off while the play clock is running down.

I also can't remember when this whole concept of calling the timeout actually started. I can't remember this happening much 10 years ago and certainly not 20 years ago ( yes, I'm old ) or is that just my selective memory?

[Yossarian]

There was a big statistical rundown of just this thing last month on espn or something (website)... cant remember where exactly though! It did show freezing work to an extent

[21C]

Originally Posted by Yossarian

There was a big statistical rundown of just this thing last month on espn or something (website)... cant remember where exactly though! It did show freezing work to an extent

Thanks for that. It got me searching and found an article on the subject.
http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_15_04.html

An excerpt:

Using their model, Berry and Wood calculate that, for an average kicker, the estimated probability of a successful 40-yard kick in sunny weather is 0.759. The estimated probability under the same conditions for an average kicker who has been iced is 0.659.

"Reducing the probability of a successful kick from 0.759 to 0.659 is a very important difference," Berry and Wood report.

So, is calling a timeout a good defensive strategy? "The evidence is not overwhelming, but it is compelling," Berry and Wood conclude.

"Icing a field goal kicker on a pressure kick may decrease the probability of success," they add. "This implies that a psychological effect of pressure exists, and is compounded by more time to dwell on the kick."

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I think for some it will work. But in some circumstances it may help. Kind of like lining up a putt. Having some extra time to find the right spot, going through your kick/swing thoughts would actually be an advantage. My guess is if it's a rookie or a guy in a slump, it will help; otherwise no.

[BigJohn&TheLions]

"Reducing the probability of a successful kick from 0.759 to 0.659 is a very important difference," Berry and Wood report.

Ths sounds like something someone would come up with for the game...

[Leonidas]

I've read interviews with several kickers who say they actually like those timeouts because it gives them time to pull themselves together. As for that study, I really don't think they have enough data to make a solid conclusion. Go back 10-20 years and look at the data and maybe you have something. Also, the study does nothing to take into account the norm for these kickers. A better study would include a look at the overall effectiveness of kickers who succeeded in pressure situations vs kickers who didn't when they were iced. What if you find out in this small study that purely by coincidence most of the kickers who were iced just coincidentally were not as good on the whole as those kickers that were not iced. Just too many unaccounted for variable to draw a significant conclusion from this small study.

[Maple Leafs]

My guess is that it depends on the kicker. I've read interviews with Vanderjaagt where he talks about using his "ice time" to trash talk to other team. On the other hand, poor Kaeding looked like he was going to piddle when they called their timeout.

I love the idea of faking the timeout, though. Have the coach signal to his players to do it, have a guy stand there with his arms out as if he's ready to call it, etc. Then let the clock tick down.

[Draft Dodger]

I've always been squarely in the camp that not only does icing the kicker not work, it actually helps the kicker. Like Logan said, if I'm a kicker, I really don't want to be rushed on that kick.

I also think kickers have grown to expect that timeout...if I'm the opposing coach, I don't call the TO to throw him off the rhythm.

[Dutch]

Just seems like too many variables. Are you giving the FG unit extra time to mentally prepare themselves for the kick? Did holding on to the timeouts costs you a play or two where you didn't have the right pesonnel on the field and now the kick is 8 or 10 yards closer than it could have been?

I would use my timeouts to benefit my team, not to hurt the other guys FG kicker. I better know how to use them to my teams benefit, I have no idea if it has any positive effect on the other guy or not.

[Leonidas]

Just to revise the discussion with some new data from SI's Dr Z. The folks at STATS, Inc don't think there is an advantage to icing a kicker.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...g.z/index.html

I was thinking about this whole icing matter, so I sent my query along to the good Doctor Stamms of Stats, Inc. He came up with the following: Pressure kicks (using the same guidelines as described above, except that they're in the last two minutes, not three) since 1991, regular season -- 457 of 637 (71.7 percent) made, without icing on them. After icing, the number is 152 of 211 (72 percent). So it's a push. Next week we'll discuss kicks with frosting instead of icing.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

My guess is that it depends on the kicker. I've read interviews with Vanderjaagt where he talks about using his "ice time" to trash talk to other team.

Which ended up being hilarious Week 1 vs. the Patriots, as he made the choke sign towards the New England sideline, then ended up missing the game-tying kick.

Vinatieri has said he actually prefers the timeout, especially in bad/snowy weather, because it gives him and the holder time to prepare the field a little and make sure the footing is good.