03-03-2004, 06:19 AM | #1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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PING: Everyone. Group Project to study Booms/Busts
I have a couple more theories regarding booms and busts that I'd like to test out, but in order to do so, I'm going to need more data than I have available to me from just my own careers. Specifically, I'd like to study combine ratings of players who fit one of the two following criteria:
1. Over time, his current rating ended up being 20 points or more above his original potential rating. (boom players) 2. His current rating ended up being 20 points or more below his original potential rating and it was not due to an injury. (bust players) In other words, for this study I'm defining a boom player as a guy who was 21/38 before the draft, but ended up 58/58, 4-8 years down the line, and a bust player as a guy who was 21/60 before the draft, but ended up being 40/40 a few years later. I've started this study using my own careers, but just don't have enough. For example, I only have 9 boom QB's to look at, 2 RB's, etc. etc. etc. I'd like to have at least 15 players at each position to examine. (Don't worry about kickers and punters.) In order to get this study and report findings to y'all, here's what I need: 1. People who do savegames like this (or are willing to start doing it this way): "Falcons 2004 Predraft", "Falcons 2004 Yearend", "Falcons 2005 Predraft", "Falcons 2005 Yearend", etc.. In other words, I want to know the player's combine and scouted ratings BEFORE he was drafted. 2. I want to track the following predraft ratings: Volatility Solecismic Test 40-Yard Dash Bench Press Agility Bureau Rating (non-adjusted) Current Value Future Potential 3. Here is a suggested format for the data. If you have excel and use the WYSIWYG editor, you can create a spreadsheet like the one below, and copy and paste it directly into this thread.
4. I don't think I need to know the max of their current ratings. I just need to know that the only players we're looking at varied by 20 or more from their original projection. 5. I definitely want these guys divided by positions. My working theory is this: No combine ratings can be ignored, but some are more important for certain position groups. As you can see in the list of breakout QB's above, virtually all of them have the following in common:
Next, take a look again at the two RB's:
With only two to look at, it is obviously much hard to draw conclusions, or even speculate but these two things stand out to me. 1. Solecismic test might not be as important for them. Both of these guys actually came in BELOW the position average of 21.29. 2. Both of them had off the charts 40 time's for RB's--just about 2 standard deviations from the average. Early speculation would indicate that 40 time is the most important combine score for RB's, but obviously we need more data to draw such a conclusion. So, if those of you with mature careers who do two saves per season can start looking through your HOF's, QB Comparisons, Career Leaders, and Top 20 Current Value players by positions and finding those late-round picks and undrafted FA's who wound up being stars, and post their pre-draft info, and then also look through the list of former #1's and FA's on the scrap heap to find those first-rounders who never amounted to much, and post their pre-draft info as well, perhaps we can make some more headway on this. NOTE: I fully expect that it may take a few weeks to get enough players to examine, so those of you who haven't been saving twice per season who want to help out, start doing so now! Thanks in advance! --Ben
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03-03-2004, 07:56 AM | #2 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cary, NC
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Just a tidbit: you don't need saved games. FOF Extractor can dump your combine ratings (and blue/gray bars) for the entire draft class to a spreadsheet.
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-- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities |
03-03-2004, 08:20 AM | #3 |
Strategy Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: North Carolina
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I wished I'd saved my games like that. I have one career in 2060, but I have no access to combine ratings.
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03-03-2004, 09:03 AM | #4 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
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03-03-2004, 09:04 AM | #5 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Hog Country
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I volunteer to study busts.
NOTE: I don't even own any FOF game beyond the original and TCY. |
03-03-2004, 09:10 AM | #6 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I would love to help, but would like to know if there is an "easy" way to find these booms and busts? In other words how do you track so many players?
Last edited by Barkeep49 : 03-03-2004 at 09:10 AM. |
03-03-2004, 09:28 AM | #7 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
1. Individual Statistics 2. Select a position by "Current Rosters" and hit Recommend. You'll get the top 20 players at that position. 3. Career Leaders 4. Hall of Fame Just go to any of those screens, and use the "N" and "P" hotkeys to cycle through the list quickly. Just look for guys drafted in the 4th round or later among the "elite" lists above. Most/all of them will be guys who increased significantly from their pre-draft numbers. The bigger issue is actually having the predraft numbers on hand then to see what they were. That is where having an extra savegame per season, or saving each draft class with the FOF Extractor is needed. Busts are a bit more tedious. There are two ways that are relatively painless: 1. Track guys on your own team who bust over time. 2. Look at the whole FA list during the season (from the Roster Screen). Cycle through it quickly, looking for former first or second round draft picks who are sitting in the pool. The additional problem with 1st/2nd rounders with low ratings is that you also have to check to see if they had a serious injury at some point in their career. This can sometimes just be done by inspection immediately. If they played 16 games for 4 straight seasons, then played 2, and sucked from then on out, you can safely assume it wasn't a bust, but an injury. Other times it isn't as obvious. Hope that helps.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 03-03-2004 at 11:47 AM. |
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03-03-2004, 11:16 AM | #8 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Sweden
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Quote:
I'd love to use FOF Extractor for this, but I can't get it working with my copy of FOF2k4... did you get my email?
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03-03-2004, 11:47 AM | #9 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Troy, NY
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SD: Shouldn't we be making a note in the spreadsheet whether said player is "Bust" or "Breakout". FWIW, I've been running a solo "career" JUST in preparation for the draft of the multiplayer league I'm in. Thus, I'm flying through seasons and just seeing how well I can draft. Doing 3 saves per season - PreDraft, PostTraining, PostSea.
Also, if people start new careers to study this and aren't playing a "real" game in these careers, turn injuries to 0. Will make busts MUCH easier to identify.
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03-03-2004, 11:56 AM | #10 | |||
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
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Quote:
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FWIW, right now my working theory is that while breakout players have some level of predictability, bust players are much more random. If this is true, I'd say it is a good thing.
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03-04-2004, 02:59 PM | #11 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
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Bump
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
03-04-2004, 10:15 PM | #12 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I've generated a bunch of seasons, just haven't had time to pull the people. Will try and devote some time to this soon.
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03-05-2004, 01:28 AM | #13 |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Sweden
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Would a condition for the validity of the study be that only in-game rosters and draft files are used? If you used HeavyReign's roster generator and TCY draft files, would that affect the outcome significantly?
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03-05-2004, 02:45 AM | #14 |
Pro Rookie
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dorks
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03-05-2004, 03:13 AM | #15 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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Is "formations known", another component to QB success?
Just curious, cause I had a breakout QB....went from like 19/43 to 40/64 almost overnight. He did have good combine scores IIRC though. And do you have the wig draft combine scores greg? Id like to look at a couple breakouts I've already noticed. |
03-05-2004, 08:02 AM | #16 | |
Pro Starter
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Quote:
I'll have to check if I still have that spreadsheet at home. If not, Wig had the spreadsheet up on the web site, he might still have the HTML. And one of these days I'm going to add "formations known" to the QBs in the Extractor.
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03-05-2004, 08:12 AM | #17 |
Mascot
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Washington, DC
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Using HR's utility wouldn't matter because it only affects the starting rosters. Draft players are still generated by the game in the same way. This should be an interesting study, I'll contribute what I can.
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04-19-2004, 11:02 AM | #18 |
n00b
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Siena, Italy
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A sort of analisys
Hi,
I've tried to track boom and bust players following the guidelines posted by SD here and I'd like to share the results I got. The analisys is restricted to a short career (10 year span) but it could be interesting enough. It's not that difficult to find boom players but it's not easy to find busts, just because I can't know if they had any serious injury during their careers. So I've tried to look at their career stats, trying to decide if they have been healthy or not, reporting only the ones fitting this requirement, based on my judgement. A short legenda: - Boom is a player with a current Future Rating 14 points or more greater than the Draft Day Future Rating. - Bust is a player with a current Future Rating 14 points lower or less than the Draft Day Future Rating. Some notes: - Boom players that I could check yearly (those on my team) have a post Training Camp//contract signing Future Rating greater than or equal the same rating showed in the Draft Board. This value goes up every year, steeper the first years. - Bust players that I could check yearly (again, those on my team) usually drop their rating after the first TC/contract signing and it never goes up later, well... it often goes down - I can't find a consistent link from the combine values and the boom/bust players. It's true that most great players have at least higher than average values, but you can see some bad players with great combine rating... I think that could be useful to restrict the boom/bust range to +- 10, so that we could have a larger statistical base. To be honest I'm not satisfied with this small research but it's really boring to find bust players... I hope to post more data in the future. - It looks like boom and bust are pretty random whilst players with good combine ratings are more likely match the scouted future rating. This is what I'd like to prove with further test. And P.S. Could someone let me know how to paste those Excel cells in the post??? The WISIWYG editor I use doesn't work well Thanks! EDIT: Tried to make the post looking better... EDIT2: Images seem to work better... Last edited by Tium : 04-20-2004 at 02:56 AM. |
04-19-2004, 11:10 AM | #19 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edinburg,TX
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it took me 10 minutes to scroll to the end of the Tium post, and not a thing about a trout, oh well.............
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04-19-2004, 11:23 AM | #20 |
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It would be a great post if not for the 60+ pages of nothingness
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04-19-2004, 11:26 AM | #21 | |
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Quote:
*points finger and laughs derisively*
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04-19-2004, 11:29 AM | #22 | |
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No, I can see stuff, then it dissolves into 60 pages of nothing. |
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04-20-2004, 03:04 AM | #23 |
n00b
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Siena, Italy
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I do apologize for my poor posting and I'm going to use images until I can find a better way to insert tables...
And |
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