FOF2K4 Drafting Strategy (Poll Included)

[Ben E Lou]

I've seen different posts at different times regarding the draft. It seems that folks are having widely varying degrees of success in drafting in this game. I'm just curious to see how everyone is doing.

[corbes]

I feel strongly that players with high current/low potential are the way to go.

I feel I've been successful in the draft. My most recent draft, my 1(7), 2nd round, and an undrafted FA all made the Green Page. Now, my 4th-7th picks all got cut before the start of the regular season, but only because four undrafted FAs made the team in their place. I just as easily could have had four future starters in the last four rounds -- it's happened plenty of times before.

[Ben E Lou]

I'll start.

For me, it started out as something of a crapshoot. I had several first and second round busts in my first dozen or so seasons of playing. Then, when I started experimenting and examining both former busts and former booms from around the league, some patterns began to emerge. Now, having gone through 50 or so drafts, I think I've gotten the hang of it. I'm playing a new career now. At the beginning of 2008 (after four drafts), here are my highlights so far...

• Only one complete bust--a third-rounder.

• Every 1st or 2nd rounder taken has either already become, or is about to become, a solid starter.
  
• A 7th-round QB (with volatility only 32) winning the Solescismic Bowl MVP
  
• An undrafted FA CB, now in his 4th year, who has become a solid cover corner, and looks like he's about to break out in a big way.
  
• An undrafted FA RB, now in his 3rd year, rated 39/49 and climbing every year.
  
• A 6th-round draft pick LT stepping in and starting as a rookie (due to the 3rd-round bust above), and giving up only 6 sacks, with a 41.4 KRB%, in 16 starts.

[Easy Mac]

Lets see:
Current Draft

• 9 games in, my 2nd round WR has 15 catches for 184 yards, but has played well in the 4 games he's started.
• My 3rd round CB has a pick but hasn't played much.
• My 6th round QB should start next year when my starter leaves for too much money (and of course, the guy has a career year in his contract year).
• My 2nd round LG has been inactive all year. Everyone else was cut.

Last Year's Draft

• 1st rounder is starting at WLB and has 25 tackles and 13 assists in 8 games.
• 7th rounder is a backup RG and 67% at run blocking.
• 2nd rounder is in his 2nd year starting at LDE. 20 tackles and 6.5 sacks this year so far.
• 1st round QB hasn't played yet, looks like a backup. Sort of a bust.
• Undrafted LG is starting. 39% blocking percent, only 1 sack in 9 games this year. His ratings aren't great, but he's playing well.
• 2nd round RCB is a backup and has a pick.
• Undrafted TE Hardy Fox has 3 catches in a game.
• 3rd round SLB started 3 games before injury, 8 tackles. Was my top LB in his rookie year last year with 75 tackles and 6 sacks.
• Undrafted RB hasn't played this year.

And Finally, the year before thats draft (3rd year players)

• 1st round SS is one of the top safeties in the league.
• 2nd round C is starting and hasn't allowed a sack this year.
• Signed a 6th round MLB this year from ATL. A starter with 32 tackles this year.
• An Undrafted FB is on the bench.
• 6th round WLB from SD. 25 tackles and 3.5 sacks this year.
• Undrafted RDE is a backup.

On the defensive side, my first rounders have been pretty good. My second round is 50/50. 3rd round has missed so far. No 4th or 5th rounders from the last 3 years. The 6th round has been pretty good, and the 7th is non-existent. I've gotten lucky with the 3rd round lately.

[Ben E Lou]

As far as drafting strategy, to me it has become the best thing about this game because after some pretty extensive observations (savegames every year for 40 seasons predraft and postdraft), I'm fairly certain that there are no one or two things you can look at alone to be successful. There have been many "hints" thrown out there, and the thing is that seem to be pretty much all valid to some degree, but in order for a player to be "can't-miss" (a very rare thing IRL and in FOF2K4), pretty much all of the "signs" have to be positive. Here is a list of things I look for in rookies (in no particular order):

• current vs. future ratings
• strength
• 40 time
• low volitility for early-round picks, high volatility for late-round picks
• agility score
• Solecismic Test
• key grey/blue bar ratings for their position group
• Height/Weight (Would he be better at another position, and can I move him there?)
• position groups that my scout excels in

I think what is most important to note is that none of these should be used alone. It seems that a lot of guys swear by "low volatility in the early rounds, high volatility in the late rounds," for example. While this is a generally good mantra, there are definitely exceptions. For example, my 7th-round QB that I mentioned above had a volatility rating of only 32, but there were other signs that he would be good, so I grabbed him and it paid off with a Solecismic Bowl ring and MVP Trophy. Further, the current best overall rated guy in the league is a LT who was taken 1(2) by the AI, with a 99 volatility rating.

The first thing I now do in free agency is pore over the entire draft preview and make a position-by-position list of guys with adjusted ratings <5.0 who I think could be breakouts. It has been very helpful. Generally speaking, there are usually no more than 2 or 3 players at each position who make this list. What has been fascinating to discover (and a confirmation that my strategies are solid) is that, despite the fact that there are generally 35-40 players rated >=5.0 in each draft, a significant number of the guys I identify are being drafted in the first round, or very early in the second. (Point being, it seems like the AI is using similar strategies to mine in identifying and drafting players who may end up better than projected.) When I get a little farther into the career, I'll post the player results from my 2005 potential breakout list (the first year I started saving this list).

[Easy Mac]

SD, do you pay attention to certain combine scores for certain positions, or do you look at them all equally for each postion. For example, I only look at agility and strength for O/D-linemen, more agility and 40 for CB... Granted, some have all of them importance(RB, Safeties and LB), but for the most part I only look at a couple for each position.

[RPI-Fan]

For example, I only look at agility and strength for O/D-linemen

Without going into too much detail, I can tell you this is a mistake. All the scores mean something for everyone (with the possible exception of P/K).

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

SD, do you pay attention to certain combine scores for certain positions, or do you look at them all equally for each postion. For example, I only look at agility and strength for O/D-linemen, more agility and 40 for CB... Granted, some have all of them importance(RB, Safeties and LB), but for the most part I only look at a couple for each position.

I'm not 100% certain yet what is the best way to go on this is. Right now, I'm still paying attention to them all because I don't have a large enough sample size that is that specific. To test this, I'd want to look at linemen who were very good in both agility and strength, but below average (even for linemen) in their 40 times. I haven't gotten THAT specific yet. I *will* say this though. Take a look at this guy, for example:

His 4.4 bureau rating isn't all that great, and his 40 and agility times are good for CB's, but not over-the-top. However, that big, fat *20* in bench press is way over the top. I'd take him in the 2nd round in a heartbeat--and maybe even late in the first. He might be a pretty good case study, especially considering that his volatility is only 8. From my experience, this is a guy who will be better than that "54" in his future potential.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Without going into too much detail, I can tell you this is a mistake. All the scores mean something for everyone (with the possible exception of P/K).

Sounds like you and I are thinking similarly on this. I'm more and more in the camp of there is nothing that should be ignored--which is a wonderful thing. The more I play thisgame, the more I believe that we're looking at a very, very, very deep rookie model--deeper than I'd ever imagined.

[Easy Mac]

I've always wondered, does special teams stuff count towards future potential? I ask because your test player looks t obe a pretty damn good player based on the bars, but he's still got a pretty low future rating. I doubt special teams would affect it much if at all, but I've just wondered.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I've always wondered, does special teams stuff count towards future potential? I ask because your test player looks t obe a pretty damn good player based on the bars, but he's still got a pretty low future rating. I doubt special teams would affect it much if at all, but I've just wondered.

I think S.T. ratings have SOME impact, but not as much as other stuff. If he's at the bottom of the blue ranges, and that 40% developed is accurate, we're talking about ratings like this:

Run Defense: 14/35
Man to Man: 14/35
Zone: 16/40
Bump/Run: 22/55
Diagnose: 16/40
Punish: 24/60
INT's: 28/70
End: 30/75

If he's at the top, with 40% developed...

Run Defense: 24/60 (20/48 midrange)
Man to Man: 24/60 (20/48 midrange)
Zone: 28/70 (21/55 midrange)
Bump/Run: 32/80 (27/68 midrange)
Diagnose: 26/65 (21/53 midrange)
Punish: 34/85 (29/73 midrange)
INT's: 38/95 (33/83 midrange)
End: 40/100 (35/88 midrange)


So, his "average" potential ratings of the categories above is 64.5. With him likely having zeros in PR and KR, and being very low in special teams, I think they play in a little less.

Other important factors:

• My scout is rated "Excellent" in young talent, and "Good" at DB's.
• According to overall assessment, he is the 10th-best CB in the draft.
• This year's draft has 34 players with adjusted ratings of 5.0 or better. (Farr's is 4.5.)
• There are 15 players in the 4.6-4.9 range.
• Farr is one of 5 players with a 4.5 adjusted rating.
• His 22 current rating is the 8th-best among CB's in the draft.

So, looking at all of this and not examining needs, one would guess that he might go in the early-to-middle 2nd round, but having 9 CB's on the board might make one think he'd go a little later than that.

I'll update y'all on his progress.

[Primal]

I think the draft is a bit too easy (playing Wallstreet).

I constently find players that can fit into my starting lineup. For example

With the 5th Round 27th pick Arizona Selects

[corbes]

Tom Brady?

[Ben E Lou]

Farr went with the 3(6) pick, 70th overall. He was the 9th CB taken in the draft.

[Ben E Lou]

Farr is #9 on the Green Page at the beginning of Late Free Agency--still 22/54

[Ben E Lou]

After first training camp, up to 25/55.