TPF Stats Analysis

[Ben E Lou]

I’ve been running a number of these tests during the beta process, and thought I’d do a public one for the release build. I just finished my 30-year presim, and am about to start my first real TPF career. I analyzed the stats from the last 10 years of the presim—after the game is completely filled with draft-generated players—in comparison to the real NFL numbers for the 2002 season. You can download the spreadsheet here if you want to take a look at the details. I’d love to hear your comments.

An interesting thing about this game is the fact that such stats are outputted, and therefore easy-to-compare with real life. Overall, I’d say the numbers look pretty good, particularly considering these are numbers generated 20-30 years down the road in the sim. While some things are a little high and some are a little low, we can definitely be sure that things aren’t wobbling out of control at any point.

Also, here are a few of my records after 30 years:

Passing Yardage: 61,042
Passing TD’s: 439
Rushing Yards: 21,287
Receiving Yards: 18,617
Sacks: 167
INT’s: 97

A few season records:

Passing Yards: 5,258
Passing TD’s: 48
QB Rating: 126.2 (same guy and season of the 48 TD’s, fyi)
Rushing Yards: 2,536
Rushing TD’s: 24
Receptions: 147
Receiving Yards: 2007
Receiving TD’s: 18
Tackles: 199
Sacks: 25
Interceptions: 19


Just putting it out there, FYI. Thoughts?

[amdaily]

How is your numbers of 4,000 yard passers with a 100+ rating annually looking ?

[Ben E Lou]

Can't tell you that with the release build. You can't go back and see that much detail in TPF (nor can you in FOF, for that matter.) All these stats were with a quicksim, so I wasn't looking at yearly leaders. I'd imagine that at some point today I'll get through a full season, and can give you info on that.

[kcchief19]

Wow. Nice job putting these numbers together.

All in all, the variances don't look that bad. The only real eye-poppers are in kick returns, whick are going to be more difficult to tighten due to the relatively low numbers, even over 30 years. Doesn't take too many Dante Hall returns to make the variance percentage blow up.

Return yardage is a different matter. I assume that the reason why the variance for average return is relatively low yet the total number of return yards is up signifianctly is due to the increase in scoring. While the neither neither the increase in scoring or return average is great, I suppose they multiply rather quickly in accounting for the total yardage increase.

Does anything bother you, Ben?

[General Mike]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Just putting it out there, FYI. Thoughts?

Some of the single season records look pretty good like rushing TDs and tackles, but the rushing yards, receiving yards and interceptions seem like they need to be touched up. The fact that I don't know who holds the real life record for interceptions in a season makes it a little harder to judge.

The career passing records are very similar to Dan Marino's career records.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by kcchief19
Does anything bother you, Ben?

Not terribly, but to be blatantly honest I haven't "played for fun" yet. The kick/punt return TD's don't bug me any more. If you'll notice, the range (over just a 10-year period) is rather substantial--from .012 to .109 for punt return TD's. That's a huge relative range for a 10-season period, but for something like punt returns for TD's, it makes sense that you'd have that much of a variance.

[GrantDawg]

Hey, SD, how do you sim seasons for background. Do you still have to make yourself a GM? Don't you get fired?

[Ben E Lou]

No, you can turn off firing when simming ahead.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Not terribly, but to be blatantly honest I haven't "played for fun" yet. The kick/punt return TD's don't bug me any more. If you'll notice, the range (over just a 10-year period) is rather substantial--from .012 to .109 for punt return TD's. That's a huge relative range for a 10-season period, but for something like punt returns for TD's, it makes sense that you'd have that much of a variance.

Oh, and you're not going to see much groaning from me that passing yardage is a hair too low and rushing yardage is a hair too high.

[Wasabiak]

Originally posted by General Mike
The fact that I don't know who holds the real life record for interceptions in a season makes it a little harder to judge.

I believe the answer to your question is Richard Lane with 14 (1952)

[sabotai]

And the most INTs in a career is 81 by Paul Krause (Wash 64-67, Min 68-79)

FWIW.

[oykib]

Originally posted by Wasabiak
I believe the answer to your question is Richard Lane with 14 (1952)

I like how record books list guys by their given names, rather than what the fans know these players as.

[cthomer5000]

Night Train Lane

[Wasabiak]

Originally posted by oykib
I like how record books list guys by their given names, rather than what the fans know these players as.

Actually, i knew him as Dick.

[General Mike]

So where are these record books at? I know profootballreference.com has the offensive records, but where are defensive records tracked?

[hukarez]

Originally posted by General Mike
So where are these record books at? I know profootballreference.com has the offensive records, but where are defensive records tracked?

I've been wanting to know this too; but cthomer stated the NFL doesn't record such things in the 'Jamal Lewis 50 yard' thread.

[ISiddiqui]

Receiving Yards: 2007
Tackles: 199

DAMN! Especially the tackles!

[JAG]

I don't know what the record for tackles is in the NFL, but I know Eugene Lockheart had something like 222 tackles for the 1-15 Cowboys in '89.

[Deattribution]

I don't understand people's gripes with the tackles. In real life it's not that unusual to see a top of the line LB break the 170-180 tackle mark in a prime season. Usually that's also including assist, but still isn't that unreasonable.

[sachmo71]

Rushing yards for a season looks high to me. *Shrug*

[Ben E Lou]

Rushing yards on the whole are high, as I mentioned.

[Ben E Lou]

Doh!

Should have done this from the start. I've uploaded the html report for the league records:
http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...CareerRec.html is the best one.

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/tpf/ folder has several reports in it.

[Easy Mac]

A couple of things:

Is there a way to change the headings within the tables? Having "Value" as a heading just looks weird.

FG length seems a little short and maybe tops out at 53?

Punting length looks to top out at 87?

Overall rushing seems to be a bit high? Are there any injury problems you may have noticed (too few?) that could lead to this?

[Ben E Lou]

Easy:

1. No clue. I just uploaded what the game output.

2. Good observation. That's probably not a "first patch" issue (considering Arlie's trying to release one tomorrow), but a tweak that probably needs to be made.

3. Well, the longest punt was 98 yards, I think, but it rolled. I would agree that 87 is a bit of an odd max number though.

4. I don't have a good feel for injuries yet, but overall, rushing yardage is definitely higher than normal. This can be seen in the spreadsheet, and in the career stats as well. One issue is that it is right now mirroring the 2002 rushing stats, which were higher than ever.


When it comes time for the more subtle stats tweaks, I'll make sure that Arlie sees the comments in this thread.