Betting Strategy Question

[albionmoonlight]

I am in an NFL picks league with some friends. Every week, we pick every game straight up, winner take all.

The tiebreaker is closest to total points for the MNF game, followed by closest to winner's score, then there are other tiebreakers down the line (It's the default Yahoo tiebreakers).

Right now, there are five of us tied with 10 wins going into tonight's game. I have the Panthers to win. But I am thinking that the better value play is to switch to the Colts on the theory that the Colts have a better chance of winning straight up than I would have in a five-way tiebreaker against everyone else (assuming that all of us were to pick the Panthers).

Does that make sense, or am I missing something obvious?

[flere-imsaho]

I have nothing to add (I'm terrible at this stuff compared to others on the board), but your post made me remember this: Ping: Blackjack Players - Front Office Football Central

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I am in an NFL picks league with some friends. Every week, we pick every game straight up, winner take all.

The tiebreaker is closest to total points for the MNF game, followed by closest to winner's score, then there are other tiebreakers down the line (It's the default Yahoo tiebreakers).

Right now, there are five of us tied with 10 wins going into tonight's game. I have the Panthers to win. But I am thinking that the better value play is to switch to the Colts on the theory that the Colts have a better chance of winning straight up than I would have in a five-way tiebreaker against everyone else (assuming that all of us were to pick the Panthers).

Does that make sense, or am I missing something obvious?

I'm in the same type of pool, just on CBS Sports, and it does not let you change your picks after noon on Sunday. Everything gets locked in and you can see the other players picks. Doesn't seem fair to be able to change your pick for the Monday night game after seeing who everyone else picked and how they scored on Sunday.

Having said that, if it does let you switch your pick, you might as well, unless there is a big reward for total score for the season? Also, what is stopping the other guys from switching their picks as well?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Marmel

I'm in the same type of pool, just on CBS Sports, and it does not let you change your picks after noon on Sunday. Everything gets locked in and you can see the other players picks. Doesn't seem fair to be able to change your pick for the Monday night game after seeing who everyone else picked and how they scored on Sunday.

Having said that, if it does let you switch your pick, you might as well, unless there is a big reward for total score for the season? Also, what is stopping the other guys from switching their picks as well?

There is a final season reward, but I'm not really in the running for it barring some amazing luck.

There is also nothing stopping other people from doing it. I just feel that, knowing these guys, most will stick with the Panthers.

I've never had a problem with being able to change games that have not started yet. Let's you make those later picks a bit more strategic if you have ground to make up.

[digamma]

On ESPN's pick center, their models have the Colts at 24-31% to win straight up.

The models place the O/U right on the 46 (the current line). So, the question is, do you think you win the tie breaker more than 1/4 of the time if you put in a score like 27-19 or 26-20?

[panerd]

Best value play is to go with Vegas on everything (winner, total points, total winning team score)

Which I see would be Carolina 26, Indianapolis 20.

The reason I say this is all it takes is one person to employ your strategy of picking the Colts and the whole idea falls apart. And usually one person will have a ridiculous total point amount (60+ or under 30).

[Radii]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

There is also nothing stopping other people from doing it. I just feel that, knowing these guys, most will stick with the Panthers.

Originally Posted by digamma

The models place the O/U right on the 46 (the current line). So, the question is, do you think you win the tie breaker more than 1/4 of the time if you put in a score like 27-19 or 26-20?

These two factors combine to determine the right call I think. If we give the Colts a 28% chance to win, then if you're the only one to switch your pick then you're straight up 28% to take the week.

Those odds start to drop based on how likely it is that you think others might have the same thought and take the Colts. If you think that its possible (even 10% possible I believe) that TWO other people in addition to yourself might make the same move, then you probably need to stay on the Panthers no matter what. If you think that two others + you changing your pick is just not going to happen, then you start looking at your edge in winning the tiebreaker. The higher that edge, the better it is to just stick to Carolina as your pick.

If you think that no more than one other person will be likely to change their pick, and you don't think you have a large edge in the tiebreaker, then I switch to the Colts.

[digamma]

What did you do?

[Toddzilla]

doubled his bet, I hope

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

doubled his bet, I hope

it the only betting strategy that make you money every time

if it not make money for you, maybe football betting not your game

[albionmoonlight]

Thanks for the insight.

I went with the Colts. One other person did as well, so--had I guessed that right--I probably would not have switched. If the Colts had won in overtime, I would have pulled it out based on our point totals.

If, however, I had done this

Best value play is to go with Vegas on everything (winner, total points, total winning team score)

Which I see would be Carolina 26, Indianapolis 20.

The reason I say this is all it takes is one person to employ your strategy of picking the Colts and the whole idea falls apart. And usually one person will have a ridiculous total point amount (60+ or under 30).

, then I would have won. One other person picked my strategy, which made it the bad value play. And the other people had wonky point totals (all went way low, possibly over-accounting for the rain).

So, I liked my overall thinking. But I didn't have a good enough read of the other players, it turns out, to win this.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

it the only betting strategy that make you money every time

if it not make money for you, maybe football betting not your game

I felt you grew a lot as a person in that thread.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I felt you grew a lot as a person in that thread.

Yup.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If, however, I had done this

, then I would have won.

D'oh!