cartman's FOFC College Football Top 25 poll, Week 3, open for voting

[cartman]

Now that the weekend's games have concluded, time to open up this week's voting. Submissions are due by 6pm Central on Thursday, Sept. 19th.

Here's how last week's poll members fared:

Team			Rec.	Weekend Result
1. Alabama 		2-0	beat #11 Texas A&M 49-42
2. Stanford		2-0	beat Army 34-20
3. Oregon 		3-0	beat Tennessee 59-14
4. Ohio State		3-0	beat California 52-34
5. Clemson		2-0	Bye
6. LSU			3-0	beat Kent State 45-13
7. Louisville		3-0	beat Kentucky 27-13
8. Michigan		3-0	beat Akron 28-24
9. Georgia		1-1	Bye
10. Florida State	2-0	beat Nevada 62-7
T11. Texas A&M		2-1	lost to #1 Alabama 49-42
T11. Oklahoma State	3-0	beat Lamar 59-3
13. Oklahoma		3-0	beat Tulsa 51-20
14. South Carolina	2-1	beat Vanderbilt 35-25
15. Northwestern	3-0	beat Western Michigan 38-17
16. Nebraska		2-1	lost to #17 UCLA 41-21
17. UCLA		2-0	beat #16 Nebraska 41-21
18. Miami, FL		2-0	Bye
19. Washington		2-0	beat Illinois 34-24
20. Baylor		2-0	Bye
21. Wisconsin		2-1	lost to Arizona State 32-20
22. Notre Dame		2-1	beat Purdue 31-24
23. Florida		1-1	Bye
24. Auburn		3-0	beat Mississippi State 24-20
25. Utah State		2-1	beat Weber State 70-6

[gstelmack]

What the heck, I'll give this a go this time around:

Oregon
Ohio State
Stanford
Florida State
Clemson
Alabama
Miami, FL
Louisville
LSU
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
UCLA
Georgia
Washington
Northwestern
Baylor
Auburn
Michigan
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Wisconsin
Florida
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Utah State

[Cuckoo]

1. Alabama (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. Clemson (4)
5. Stanford (5)
6. LSU (7)
7. Louisville (6)
8. Florida State (9)
9. Georgia (8)
10. South Carolina (12)
11. Oklahoma (13)
12. Michigan (10)
13. Oklahoma State (15)
14. Texas A&M (11)
15. Miami (16)
16. UCLA (17)
17. Northwestern (20)
18. Notre Dame (19)
19. Baylor (21)
20. Washington (22)
21. Florida (23)
22. Ole Miss (25)
23. Texas Tech (NR)
24. Arizona State (NR)
25. Wisconsin (18)

Dropped out: Nebraska (14), TCU (24)

[JonInMiddleGA]

1. Alabama (1)
2. Oregon (2)
3. Ohio State (3)
4. Stanford (5)
5. FSU (6)
6. Clemson (7)
7. Louisville (8)
8. LSU (9)
9. Texas A&M (9)
10. Michigan (10)
11. Georgia (11)
12. Oklahoma State (12)
13. Oklahoma (13)
14. Northwestern (15)
15. Miami (16)
16. South Carolina (17)
17. Washington (18)
18. UCLA (19)
19. Ole Miss (24)
20. Notre Dame (20)
21. Florida (21)
22. Baylor (23)
23. Wisconsin (22)
24. Texas Tech (Un)
25. Michigan State (Un)

from Jon's Three Cents | Because two cents worth isn't always enough

Dropped Out This Week: Nebraska (14), TCU (25)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Note to Cartman: I have always removed the (last week) from my posts but if you're able to process it equally well with themthen I'll leave them in going forward. That is the native format I use, but if it makes compiling harder then it's no biggie for me to keep removing them if you prefer.

[HomerSimpson98]

1. Alabama (1)
2. Stanford (2)
3. Ohio State (3)
4. Oregon (6)
5. Clemson (4)
6. LSU (7)
7. Georgia (8)
8. Louisville (9)
9. Florida State (10)
10. Texas A&M (5)
11. Oklahoma State (12)
12. Michigan (11)
13. South Carolina (13)
14. Northwestern (15)
15. Oklahoma (16)
16. Miami (FL) (18)
17. UCLA (24)
18. Florida (19)
19. Baylor (20)
20. Washington (22)
21. Ole Miss (NR)
22. Notre Dame (23)
23. Arizona State (NR)
24. Michigan State (25)
25. UCF (NR)

Dropped Out: Nebraska (14), Wisconsin (17), TCU (21)

[General Mike]

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Stanford
5. Clemson
6. LSU
7. Florida State
8. Texas A&M
9. Michigan
10. UCLA
11. Louisville
12. Georgia
13. Northwestern
14. Oklahoma
15. South Carolina
16. Oklahoma State
17. Miami
18. Baylor
19. Washington
20. Florida
21. Notre Dame
22. UCF
23. Fresno State
24. Wisconsin
25. Ole Miss

[duckman]

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Stanford
7. Louisiana State
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. South Carolina
11. Oklahoma State
12. Texas A&M
13. Northwestern
14. Michigan
15. UCLA
16. Oklahoma
17. Washington
18. Notre Dame
19. Georgia Tech
20. Miami (FL)
21. Wisconsin
22. Baylor
23. Florida
24. Maryland
25. Arizona State

[britrock88]

1. UCLA
2. Florida State
3. Washington
4. Alabama
5. Oregon
6. Auburn
7. Georgia
8. Georgia Tech
9. Texas A&M
10. Clemson
11. Stanford
12. Oklahoma State
13. South Carolina
14. Navy
15. Indiana
16. Louisville
17. Nebraska
18. Louisiana State
19. Oklahoma
20. Miami (FL)
21. Washington State
22. Illinois
23. Arizona
24. Texas Tech
25. Pittsburgh

[Chief Rum]

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Stanford
7. Florida State
8. Georgia
9. Texas A&M
10. UCLA
11. South Carolina
12. Oklahoma
13. Michigan
14. Oklahoma State
15. Washington
16. Louisville
17. Northwestern
18. Baylor
19. Miami FL
20. Wisconsin
21. Nebraska
22. Notre Dame
23. Utah State
24. Florida
25. Arizona State

[Lathum]

so do people try and screw with the poll on purpose?

[HomerSimpson98]

Yeah, it kinda sucks to actually put forth some effort and do a little research only to someone have UCLA and U-Dub in the top 3. I may have to exhibit my all-Texas Top 25 poll next week, with Mizzou being number 1.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by britrock88

1. UCLA

Originally Posted by britrock88

15. Indiana

[cartman]

britrock has explained his formula in the past. He admits it is a bit wonky the first few weeks of the season.

[Chief Rum]

If britrock legitimately believes that, power to him. One of the reasons I submitted a poll today (aside from the fact I always intended to after a few weeks into the season) is that I saw his poll and felt more participation might be needed to water down his submission.

And that comes from a UCLA fan, lol.

[cartman]

Here's the Top 25 from Solecismic's Football Frontier:

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Oklahoma State
4. Alabama
5. UCLA
6. Louisville
7. Arizona
8. Virginia Tech
9. Georgia
10. Clemson
11. Ohio State
12. Auburn
13. Oklahoma
14. Central Florida
15. Miami, FL
16. LSU
17. Tennessee
18. Washington
19. Baylor
20. Mississippi
21. Florida
22. Texas A&M
23. Mississippi State
24. Nebraska
25. Northwestern

My Top 25:
And my Top 25:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Florida State
6. Louisville
7. Stanford
8. Georgia
9. LSU
10. Michigan
11. Oklahoma State
12. South Carolina
13. UCLA
14. Texas A&M
15. Oklahoma
16. Miami(FL)
17. UCLA
19. Northwestern
19. Baylor
20. Florida
21. Michigan State
22. Notre Dame
23. Arizona State
24. Mississippi
25. Nebraska

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cartman

britrock has explained his formula in the past. He admits it is a bit wonky the first few weeks of the season.

Knowing that there is some reason behind his logic makes me feel better about his poll, but I am still glad I submitted my poll in response.

Of course, I put UCLA at #10, so it's not like I am doing much to counter his (and in my biased opinion, UCLA will finish the season in the Top 10 anyway).

[cartman]

As a point of reference, there are quite a few computer polls that have UCLA ranked high:

College Football Ranking Composite

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's the Top 25 from Solecismic's Football Frontier:

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Oklahoma State
4. Alabama
5. UCLA
6. Louisville
7. Arizona
8. Virginia Tech
9. Georgia
10. Clemson
11. Ohio State
12. Auburn
13. Oklahoma
14. Central Florida
15. Miami, FL
16. LSU
17. Tennessee
18. Washington
19. Baylor
20. Mississippi
21. Florida
22. Texas A&M
23. Mississippi State
24. Nebraska
25. Northwestern

Bruin love!

The books are giving NMSU 42.5 points to take a bet against UCLA this Saturday. That's the biggest line versus UCLA in aeons.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If britrock legitimately believes that, power to him. One of the reasons I submitted a poll today (aside from the fact I always intended to after a few weeks into the season) is that I saw his poll and felt more participation might be needed to water down his submission.

And that comes from a UCLA fan, lol.

Yeah, most know I am huge UW fan but would never have them ranked 3rd. Maybe an argument for top 10, maybe.

I honestly don't see how anyone doesn't have Alabama as number one.

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's the Top 25 from Solecismic's Football Frontier:

Wholly fuckballs, that one is somehow worse.

[Solecismic]

You need both an eye test (i.e. Alabama deserves to be #1 because they look incredible and they have the reputation) and a computer element to compare data.

Unfortunately, early in the season the computer element struggles to find enough common data to connect teams. That's why many computer polls begin with week 7 or 8. I could tell you which results are causing UCLA to skyrocket in computer polls, but it'll even itself out down the road.

What's interesting to me is why a "bad" win doesn't knock teams down more in human polls. Michigan was borderline top ten after beating Notre Dame. The result against Akron Saturday was an indication that Michigan may not be top 25 at all. So the human polls drop them 3-4 spots, which seems silly, because a very lucky survival win at home against a team that hasn't won on the road in five years deserves a stronger response. Computer ratings like mine, which factor in score and statistics, drop Michigan out of the top 25. And computer polls like the ones the BCS used to require don't penalize Michigan at all, because they're only allowed to use wins and losses. I think human polls are too obsessed with "perfect" records.

[tarcone]

1. Alabama
2. Ohio St.
3. Clemson
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. Florida St.
7. LSU
8. Louisville
9. Michigan
10. Georgia
11. Oklahoma St.
12. South Carolina
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas A&M
15. Miami, FL
16. Northwestern
17. Baylor
18. Northern Illinois
19. Washington
20. Wisconsin
21. UCLA
22. Ole Miss
23. Florida
24. Michigan St.
25. Arkansas

[tarcone]

Just so you know, I use the eye test. No computers. I just watch games and use my knowledge.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

You need both an eye test (i.e. Alabama deserves to be #1 because they look incredible and they have the reputation) and a computer element to compare data.

Unfortunately, early in the season the computer element struggles to find enough common data to connect teams. That's why many computer polls begin with week 7 or 8. I could tell you which results are causing UCLA to skyrocket in computer polls, but it'll even itself out down the road.

What's interesting to me is why a "bad" win doesn't knock teams down more in human polls. Michigan was borderline top ten after beating Notre Dame. The result against Akron Saturday was an indication that Michigan may not be top 25 at all. So the human polls drop them 3-4 spots, which seems silly, because a very lucky survival win at home against a team that hasn't won on the road in five years deserves a stronger response. Computer ratings like mine, which factor in score and statistics, drop Michigan out of the top 25. And computer polls like the ones the BCS used to require don't penalize Michigan at all, because they're only allowed to use wins and losses. I think human polls are too obsessed with "perfect" records.

I appreciate the point you make here, certainly. Michigan fell from something like 7th out of my poll (which is simply the SRS these days, to save time) as a result of the Akron game.

For those more interested in the specifics of the SRS, it's the sum of a team's average MOV (capped) and its SOS, which is, in turn, the average of its opponents' average MOV.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

You need both an eye test (i.e. Alabama deserves to be #1 because they look incredible and they have the reputation) and a computer element to compare data.

Unfortunately, early in the season the computer element struggles to find enough common data to connect teams. That's why many computer polls begin with week 7 or 8. I could tell you which results are causing UCLA to skyrocket in computer polls, but it'll even itself out down the road.

What's interesting to me is why a "bad" win doesn't knock teams down more in human polls. Michigan was borderline top ten after beating Notre Dame. The result against Akron Saturday was an indication that Michigan may not be top 25 at all. So the human polls drop them 3-4 spots, which seems silly, because a very lucky survival win at home against a team that hasn't won on the road in five years deserves a stronger response. Computer ratings like mine, which factor in score and statistics, drop Michigan out of the top 25. And computer polls like the ones the BCS used to require don't penalize Michigan at all, because they're only allowed to use wins and losses. I think human polls are too obsessed with "perfect" records.

Clemson beat Uga head to head....and Uga beat sc.....

Yet Uga is ranked higher.
Shrug.
It'll work out.

[britrock88]

Clemson won by 3 points at home, no? That's a tie, for all intents and purposes, once you take home-field advantage into account.

[tarcone]

So a win is a tie? GO COMPUTERS!!!!

[Butter]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Clemson won by 3 points at home, no? That's a tie, for all intents and purposes, once you take home-field advantage into account.

This is why using margin of victory is problematic. That was a 10 point game where Clemson essentially let Georgia march down the field in service of running the clock out. There are so many fewer data points in football than there are in any other sport, I really think head-to-head should be valued a bit more than what we are seeing in many of the computer polls (not just yours or Jim's, judging by the composite list given).

[Solecismic]

I know computer rankings are an easy target. There's always something that doesn't pass the smell test. I've put a lot of work into my rankings. Fundamentally, a win/loss is the most important piece. But I've looked into how statistics correlate with results, and used different assessments of margin of victory. I think the computer can point out where the eye test doesn't work as well - often in smoothing out major differences in strength of schedule.

It did well with Clemson/Georgia this week. It had Clemson a 14-point favorite at N.C. State, and they won by 12. It had Georgia a 26-point favorite at home with North Texas, and they won by 24. And that's without massaging the numbers with an eye test, which you'd do if you were making predictions. And I think its assessment that Michigan was 37th rather than the 15th that the polls use is much more accurate. Of course, one could also point out wide misses, like Virginia Tech, which I thought would have an easy time with Marshall.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I know computer rankings are an easy target. There's always something that doesn't pass the smell test. I've put a lot of work into my rankings. Fundamentally, a win/loss is the most important piece. But I've looked into how statistics correlate with results, and used different assessments of margin of victory. I think the computer can point out where the eye test doesn't work as well - often in smoothing out major differences in strength of schedule.

It did well with Clemson/Georgia this week. It had Clemson a 14-point favorite at N.C. State, and they won by 12. It had Georgia a 26-point favorite at home with North Texas, and they won by 24. And that's without massaging the numbers with an eye test, which you'd do if you were making predictions. And I think its assessment that Michigan was 37th rather than the 15th that the polls use is much more accurate. Of course, one could also point out wide misses, like Virginia Tech, which I thought would have an easy time with Marshall.

I think the problem with statistical projections in college football is the varying philosophies of coaches when playing over matched opponents. You can skew averages several SD points simply by approach and neither has any indication of your ability to play a competitive game.