OT- Fantasy Football trade

[mtaystl03]

Im in a high stakes, auction, keeper, league and I am wondering if I should pull the string on this deal...

I get:
QB- Drew Bledsoe ($20) and TE- Jeremy Shockey ($25)
total of $45 cap
I give up:
QB- Aaron Brooks ($37) and TE- Freddie Jones ($6)
total of $43 cap

A little background.
12 team league. Salaries are based on the auction held at the beginning of the year. I ended up paying way too much for Brooks because I knew another owner was in love with his worthless ass and I was trying to get him to overbid by raising the price - he stopped and I got screwed.

Brooks has been bad up to last week but he plays tough defenses. Bledsoe has a lot left in his arm but without Price he isnt what he used to be. Even if Bledsoe doesnt get any better this year I have Pennington ready to take over when he recovers fully (two weeks away).

The kicker is the Tight Ends. While Shockey has only scored one more fantasy point than Jones this year he is a keeper pick.
I think im going to do it - what do you all think. Thanks.

[TroyF]

I'd do the trade.

TroyF

[cthomer5000]

I definitely like that trade. Shockey is THE keeper at tight end.

[ISiddiqui]

I'd do the deal because Bledsoe is better than Brooks. Shockey is also a bit better than Jones, but not that much. He's severely overrated.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by ISiddiqui
I'd do the deal because Bledsoe is better than Brooks. Shockey is also a bit better than Jones, but not that much. He's severely overrated.

I had the same thoughts a few weeks ago. I have to admit Shockey has really impressed me the past few weeks. He isn't dropping the ball as much, is blocking 20X better than last year and is one of the only Giants stepping up and making plays right now. He's been a better fantasy play than Amani Toomer for four consecutive weeks. I think he's certainly a keeper at this point. I've moved him up to #2 in my list. (Heap is the best overall TE in football IMO)

TroyF

[sterlingice]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
I definitely like that trade. Shockey is THE keeper at tight end.

I swear to god, one overrated big mouth jackass and everyone forgets Tony Gonzalez is in the league.

SI

[astralhaze]

RE: the trade, I think you owned him.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by sterlingice
I swear to god, one overrated big mouth jackass and everyone forgets Tony Gonzalez is in the league.

SI

OK, from just a fantasy perspective this season:

Shockey 34 catches, 322 yards, 2 TD's 6 games
TonyG 20 catches, 346 yards, 3 TD's 7 games

Pretty much a dead heat. Last year Shockey had 120 yards more than Tony and played in one less game.

I had Tony Gonzales as the second best TE in the game at the start of the year, because he was a better blocker than Shockey and got into the end zone more. Shockey has improved his blocking this season and has dropped the ball less the past four games. He's younger. I give him the edge now. I still like Heap, though his numbers are down because of the horrible QB he has throwing him the ball. (maybe Boller becomes great in a year, now he's terrible)

From a strict fantasy sense, Tony is almost identical to Jeremy. What's more is that Jeremy was superior his rookie season compared to the second year for Gonzales.

We haven't forgotten Tony G. I'd tell him to make the trade if it was for Tony too. I'd tell him to protect Tony. As much as I hate Jeremy Shockey's antics, however, I can't see how either guy is superior to the other.

TroyF

[sterlingice]

Originally posted by TroyF
OK, from just a fantasy perspective this season:

Shockey 34 catches, 322 yards, 2 TD's 6 games
TonyG 20 catches, 346 yards, 3 TD's 7 games

Pretty much a dead heat. Last year Shockey had 120 yards more than Tony and played in one less game.

I had Tony Gonzales as the second best TE in the game at the start of the year, because he was a better blocker than Shockey and got into the end zone more. Shockey has improved his blocking this season and has dropped the ball less the past four games. He's younger. I give him the edge now. I still like Heap, though his numbers are down because of the horrible QB he has throwing him the ball. (maybe Boller becomes great in a year, now he's terrible)

From a strict fantasy sense, Tony is almost identical to Jeremy. What's more is that Jeremy was superior his rookie season compared to the second year for Gonzales.

We haven't forgotten Tony G. I'd tell him to make the trade if it was for Tony too. I'd tell him to protect Tony. As much as I hate Jeremy Shockey's antics, however, I can't see how either guy is superior to the other.

TroyF

One of the reasons I like fantasy baseball more than football is that it's easier to analyze and find an edge because statistical anomalies are not as common due to a much larger sample size.

True, Shockey and Gonzalez have very similar numbers this year, but so do Shannon Sharpe and Alge Crumpler and no one is hyping them up as the best TEs in the league. Sharpe is considered past his prime and Alge a second tier guy. The last 2 years, Gonzalez has had what most consider "down" years with only 6 and 7 TDs but it still beats Shockey's 2 last year. As for yardage, he's got 917 and 773 to 894 for Shockey. The yardage numbers are really close while the TDs are quite different.

They have similar stats this year, but I'll take the guy with sustained production over a possible one year wonder any day.

SI

[TroyF]

Originally posted by sterlingice
One of the reasons I like fantasy baseball more than football is that it's easier to analyze and find an edge because statistical anomalies are not as common due to a much larger sample size.

True, Shockey and Gonzalez have very similar numbers this year, but so do Shannon Sharpe and Alge Crumpler and no one is hyping them up as the best TEs in the league. Sharpe is considered past his prime and Alge a second tier guy. The last 2 years, Gonzalez has had what most consider "down" years with only 6 and 7 TDs but it still beats Shockey's 2 last year. As for yardage, he's got 917 and 773 to 894 for Shockey. The yardage numbers are really close while the TDs are quite different.

They have similar stats this year, but I'll take the guy with sustained production over a possible one year wonder any day.

SI

Your problem is twofold:

1) TD's are often a result of opportunity, not skill.

2) Shocky had a better rookie season did Gonzales. Again, his rookie season was actually better than Tony G's second season.

------------------------------------------------------

Now, as far as TD's go, what is more likely:

The Chiefs throw to Gonzales in the end zone or run Priest Holmes inside the 5.

The Giants are going to throw to Shocky or run Tiki Barber or Dorsey Levens inside the 5.

Easy call. Odds are, Shocky's TD numbers will start to climb. Gonzales will stay steady. Jeremy is the younger guy. Jeremy is bettering Tony's yards as it is and he has upside. In a keeper league upside rules the day when you are talking about two close players. Jeremy has more. He's already playing at the same level Tony is and Tony's been in the league 7 seasons.

You can do a search and find MANY instances where I've bashed the Shock man. I hate his attitude. I thought it was funny beyond belief when he dropped the TD pass against San Fran last year.

Give me a choice between him and Tony in fantasy football, I take Jeremy. In real life? I take Heap. Heap outblocks both of the other guys and can still catch the ball.

TroyF

[Archer219]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
I definitely like that trade. Shockey is THE keeper at tight end.

If we are talking for the long term (3-4 years), THE keeper at tight end is Tood Heap, IMHO.

[Travis]

Personally, give me Crumpler over Shockey on my team any day, be it fantasy football, or if I was somehow find myself in command of a 'real' team. Ditto for Tony G and Heap.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Travis
Personally, give me Crumpler over Shockey on my team any day, be it fantasy football, or if I was somehow find myself in command of a 'real' team. Ditto for Tony G and Heap.

I love Crumpler and actually have him on a couple of fantasy teams (including a keeper league)

I have Shockey on zero fantasy teams. If someone offered me Shockey for Crumpler today, I'd take it and wouldn't look back.

As much as I like Crumpler, he isn't as fluid in and out of his breaks as Shockey is. He has great straight ahead speed, but not great power or make you miss moves. Shockey has both.

TroyF

[TroyF]

DOLA,

I can't believe I've spent the night defending a guy I can't stand. I wish I could put the actual player abilities outside of my mind and pretend that Crumpler is a better TE than Shockey is. I like Algae. I like North Carolina more than I like Miami. I like the Falcons more than I like the Giants. I'll cheer for Algae his entire career, I'll never cheer for Shockey.

I think we're at the backlash stage though. When a player emerges, fans and media write about him like he's the second coming. Then the hype starts to die down a little bit and the bashers come around. (I was one of the leaders of the bashing last year and early this season)

Some people are left behind at both points. Some still feel that Shockey is the greatest TE in the history of the game. Some feel Shockey is a worthless player who has no talent. You'll never convince either side to give some leeway and go toward the middle. (again, I've done it with players, I have my own biases on occasion, something I try and prevent)

I think the reality is that Shockey is clearly one of the top three TE in the game of football in only his second year. You can make an arguement for both Gonzales and Heap. Strictly basing things off of numbers, Shockey is already their equal in terms of year to year production. There isn't anything as of yet to indicate he won't continue to do that and get even better.

TroyF

[Glengoyne]

I am gonna pile on and say "Do the trade".

I also wanna add that I believe Troy has broken down the Shockey situation pretty accurately. The only thing I think Gonzales, is now better at is possession type receiving, and possibly catching the ball in space over the middle(He gets open in the middle of the field). Shockey is nearly as good, and will only get better.

I consider myself a connisseur of fine tight ends, not that that has anything to do with this thread.


Edited to clarify a cloudy sentence

[sooner333]

Considering that I would trade Brooks for Bledsoe straight up, I'd pull the trade. Shockey as the bonus in the trade is terrific. No-brainer.

[Radii]

I would do this trade also.

As for the side discussions coming up, I love Crumpler. I think he has the potential to be a very good weapon if we ever get to see a solid offense that contains Michael Vick, TJ Duckett, Peerless Price, and Crumpler.

[mtaystl03]

Thanks for the input.
I guess the guy I was looking to trade with was reading this tread. He took it off the table before I could pull the trigger.

Now the question is Brooks for Bledsoe strait up.

I saw one person mention they would do it. Its a keeper league and I dont think I would hold on to Brooks next year b/c of his inflated salary ($37 - to Bledsoe's $20). I really dont know if I would keep either player though so is it worth it this year?

Any thoughts?
Thanks.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally posted by mtaystl03
I guess the guy I was looking to trade with was reading this tread. He took it off the table before I could pull the trigger.
Now the question is Brooks for Bledsoe strait up.

If there was an offer on the table that he pulled and then downgraded, I'd refuse the new offer just on principle.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by sterlingice
I swear to god, one overrated big mouth jackass and everyone forgets Tony Gonzalez is in the league.

SI

Please take a look at Tony Gonzalez's production, and his role in the Cheifs offense. Can you really argue that from a FANTASY FOOTBALL perspective, that he is the better tight end?

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Maple Leafs
If there was an offer on the table that he pulled and then downgraded, I'd refuse the new offer just on principle.

I would agree with this 100%

[cincyreds]

That is crazy for giving up Shockey....

[Samdari]

I would do anything you could to get Brooks off the team. Getting a passable QB and one of only 3 TEs that matter is a bonus.

[sterlingice]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
Please take a look at Tony Gonzalez's production, and his role in the Cheifs offense. Can you really argue that from a FANTASY FOOTBALL perspective, that he is the better tight end?

Gonzalez has other weapons around him, especially Priest Holmes, which detract from his production. However, he's in a much more high-powered offense than the Giants. Not only that, but he's the safety valve for Trent Green. Right now, if we're drafting only tight ends in fantasy football and I had the first pick, yes, I'd take Tony Gonzalez- you know you're going to get top tier production from him because he's done it for quite a few years whereas Shockey has not.

SI

[TroyF]

I don't want to drag this out any futher than it has to, but how far back do you think the Giants were from the Chiefs last year in offensive production?

This year, the Giants average 6 more yards a game than the Chiefs do. Last year the Chiefs were better by about 11 yards. Both of these offenses have weapons surrounding the TE's. I would advise you not to get too caught up in the "he hasn't proven it over a period of years" arguement. We are 1/3 of the way through the season. If he was going to have a nasty SO. slump, there would already be indications of that. The opposite is happening. He caught 74 passes last year. He's on pace for 91 this year.

As was said by others, Shockey is already drawing enough respect to have CB's or talented safeties put on him. Who would you rather have now: Chad Johnson or Keyshawn Johnson. Don't laugh. Keyshawn has put up 70+ catches for seven consecutive seasons. Chad has never had a 70 catch season. While Chad had a few more yards last year, Keyshawn had more TD's.

This is the NFL. There are a lot of one year wonders at the QB or DE positions. There aren't many in other positions. If a running back can gain yards, he usually continues gaining yards. If a WR/TE makes catches and racks up yardage, provided he has a stable QB situation he'll continue to accumulate the nearly the same stats.

In the NFL, the odds are FAR higher that Gonzales will lose a step and see his numbers start to drop after year 7 or 8 than they are that Shockey will fall off the face of the planet.

TroyF