More NFL predictions/strange standings

Easy Mac · 10-21-2003, 11:43 PM

Basically, here is a loose stastical outlook on the the season and where teams should stand as opposed to their actual records, and where they may end up. (Note: % is Pythagorean percent based on points and weird math stuff I don't understand).

Here it is

Supposed playoffs:
AFC: Bye - KC and IN
TN @ Mia
Den @ Bal

NFC: Bye - MN and SL
SF @ Dal.
Sea. @ TB

Cards, Bears and Falcons are fighting it out for the #1 pick. Nothing really shocking.

Edit: Fixed to comply with TroyF statement below.

TroyF · 10-21-2003, 11:46 PM

Actually, it has Denver at 12-4. They'd finish ahead of an 11-5 Tennessee team.

TroyF

TLK · 10-21-2003, 11:47 PM

What exactly is the tie-breaker for the #1 pick because the way my Lions have played this year, they deserve some consideration.....

TLK · 10-21-2003, 11:48 PM

dola.... forget it.... figured it out

The_herd · 10-21-2003, 11:49 PM

Strength of Schedule I believe.

Easy Mac · 10-21-2003, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by TroyF
Actually, it has Denver at 12-4. They'd finish ahead of an 11-5 Tennessee team.

TroyF

oops, tend to forget the broncos as much as possible

That being said, given how the schedules play out, I sincerely doubt these records are possible anyway, just things to think about as trends start to set in for teams (i.e. Carolina's offense showing itself to be a huge liability, its team being too reliant on a D that can't be on every game.)

TroyF · 10-21-2003, 11:54 PM

Just pointing out your flaw.

It actually has the Panthers at 9-7. That's a likely record for them. They'd have to go 4-6 the rest of the way for that to happen? I think it's possible with that defense. I can't see Dallas finishing 12-4 or the Packers winning 10 games though.

TroyF

Easy Mac · 10-22-2003, 12:04 AM

Hey, math is never wrong!

A lot of factors unfortuantely can't completely be taken into account when producing these standings. If I had the time, I'm sure I could figure out a way so that points scored in a blowout (see 49ers v. Bears) wouldn't skew their win percentage. Also, it doesn't factor in schedule strength (I could probably do that within a few hours if I were bored enoguh), so it can't accurately predict how the Cowboys will play against better teams. But oh well, if I am somehow right, I can tout my geniousness, and if not, I can just blame it on the computer.

10-21-2003, 11:49 PM	#5
The_herd College Starter Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Fort Lackland, Texas (San Antonio)	Strength of Schedule I believe. __________________ Oakland Raiders: HFL's 1970 AC West Champs

10-21-2003, 11:46 PM	#2
TroyF Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Actually, it has Denver at 12-4. They'd finish ahead of an 11-5 Tennessee team. TroyF

10-21-2003, 11:47 PM	#3
TLK Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Allen Park, MI	What exactly is the tie-breaker for the #1 pick because the way my Lions have played this year, they deserve some consideration.....

10-21-2003, 11:48 PM	#4
TLK Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Allen Park, MI	dola.... forget it.... figured it out

10-21-2003, 11:54 PM	#7
TroyF Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Just pointing out your flaw. It actually has the Panthers at 9-7. That's a likely record for them. They'd have to go 4-6 the rest of the way for that to happen? I think it's possible with that defense. I can't see Dallas finishing 12-4 or the Packers winning 10 games though. TroyF

10-22-2003, 12:04 AM	#8
Easy Mac Registered User Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Here	Hey, math is never wrong! A lot of factors unfortuantely can't completely be taken into account when producing these standings. If I had the time, I'm sure I could figure out a way so that points scored in a blowout (see 49ers v. Bears) wouldn't skew their win percentage. Also, it doesn't factor in schedule strength (I could probably do that within a few hours if I were bored enoguh), so it can't accurately predict how the Cowboys will play against better teams. But oh well, if I am somehow right, I can tout my geniousness, and if not, I can just blame it on the computer.

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