Letterman Beating Tonight Show for First Time Since '98

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

If you don't like him, fine. Why do you feel it necessary to insult people who do? There are obviously many funny, intelligent people who think he's great--so any argument that positions you as "above" it is just laughable.

Uh... sorry. Why do you feel the need to get all defensive? RendeR just said he didn't find Conan funny and all of a sudden people are jumping on him left and right and therefore HE is insulting people?

Get over yourself.

[sovereignstar]

FOFC: I Like X But You Like Y, Part 1,324,249

[Kodos]

X sux. And so do you.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Uh... sorry. Why do you feel the need to get all defensive? RendeR just said he didn't find Conan funny and all of a sudden people are jumping on him left and right and therefore HE is insulting people?

Get over yourself.

What people are jumping on him left and right? I see one - ThunderingHerd. Just saying.

[Fidatelo]

WHY THE FUCK ARE PEOPLE JUMPING ALL OVER ISiddiqui?! RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT... THEN LEFT AGAIN!

[kcchief19]

The real X factor in the race the last few weeks has been Nightline. Michael Jackson provided Nightline with a real ratings surge the last few weeks. That will dissipate at some point but where did those viewers come from and where do they go from here?

Letterman has built his audience about 10-15% since Conan come to Tonight but the real story is that Conan has lost about 40% of Leno's Tonight audience already. The only thing Conan has going for him at this point are the demo numbers, but those are narrowing. I thought Dave would start beating Conan regularly in total viewers but didn't think it would happen quite a fast and thoroughly.

The next few months will be interesting. It's adults 18-25 saving Conan. Dave is competitive with women overall and Letterman leads all women demos 25-plus. Conan only leads in women demos that go down to 18. I still don't think Conan's audience has stabilized, because the ratings keep slipping. He lost last week by 800k viewers. If he stabilizes down 1 million viewers and only wins 18-34 he's in trouble. If Letterman starts winning 18-49 despite Conan's lead among 18-25, cue Leno. Leno was regularly beating Letterman by about 1 million viewers. If in six months Conan loses 2 million viewers and loses in the key demo, there's no way he makes it without Hugh Grant coming on and doing a lap dance with a tranny.

Speaking of Nightline earlier, I imagine Ted Koppel has to be sick. I saw Terry Moran try to articulate the journalistic integrity of going all Michael Jackson, all the time and got diced up by Howard Kurtz. Not exactly the Iran hostage crisis. Those Nightline numbers are soft. Granted, it hasn't been a huge surge but I would expect Nightline to settle in at a very solidsecond over the next few months, maybe even winning one out of four weeks or so.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Those Nightline numbers are soft. Granted, it hasn't been a huge surge but I would expect Nightline to settle in at a very solidsecond over the next few months, maybe even winning one out of four weeks or so.

While the recent surge propelled them into the spotlight more, Nightline has very slowly but steadily gained audience ever since the makeover. In some major & mid-major markets it was already #2 with A25-54 on a fairly regular basis and was winning some nights occasionally.

Although I can't say I thought about it specifically in advance, really the boost it got from Leno's departure was fairly predictable. It's the next most comfortable position for the older half of the main adult demo, even moreso than Letterman who still has a turn-off factor for some viewers from his early days.

[boberot]

I'm surprised that anybody remotely youthful finds Leno funny.

To me, if Tonight Show material was funny, it was usually despite Leno's buffoonery.

Conan, I think, has the ability to take sometimes mediocre material and actually *make* it funny through his antics and improvisation.

Fallon is truly just painful to watch. I'm sure he'll grow into the role [there's obviously a steep learning curve in such a gig], but he comes across way too nervous and awkward for me to this point.

[Karlifornia]

THE TV SHOW HOST YOU LIKE SUCKS

[MrBug708]

I never understood the popularity of Conan or even Letterman. I guess Leno is more my style. To each their own

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by King of New York

The really shocking news is: Jimmy Fallon: 1.269 million.

I assume that nearly every one of those poor b*stards was tied to a chair and forced to watch. Otherwise, I do not think that Fallon could get 1,269 viewers.

Originally Posted by Pyser

have you checked it out? or are you just saying that based on nothing?

his sketches are funny, they play to his strengths as much as possible

Problem is that the man has very few strengths when it comes to comedy.

Originally Posted by King of New York

Some of the sketches are alright, but for someone who used to do stand-up comedy, he struggles imo to a surprising degree with his monologues--they can be painful, and I do not see him getting much better (unlike Conan, who was awkward initially but got the hang of it after a while).

The Roots make a cool house band.

And this pretty much sums it up for me. He struggles mightily with the monologues and just doesn't have a comedian's sense of timing or delivery. I would have thought that execs would have noticed this with Weekend Update since it's a similar style and he did that for quite a while (arguably without getting any better).

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

While the recent surge propelled them into the spotlight more, Nightline has very slowly but steadily gained audience ever since the makeover. In some major & mid-major markets it was already #2 with A25-54 on a fairly regular basis and was winning some nights occasionally.

Although I can't say I thought about it specifically in advance, really the boost it got from Leno's departure was fairly predictable. It's the next most comfortable position for the older half of the main adult demo, even moreso than Letterman who still has a turn-off factor for some viewers from his early days.

Dare I ask- what is Nightline's makeover? I haven't watched it in forever since it was, you know, news. From the sounds of it, did it take on some Entertainment Tonight tabloid "news magazine" format or something?

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Honestly, I really do feel as though anybody over the age of about 22 that isn't high to the point that pretty much anything is funny and yet still finds Conan funny in more than a couple of minutes watching-a-trainwreck-in-motion sort of way could be from another planet or else has some serious maturity issues.

Sure, there are people over 40 who think Pauly Shore is high comedy too but they aren't make them immune to criticism or outright mockery either.

I think you might be selling Conan a little short- a little. Sure, lots of adolescent idiocy that is good for surface laughs and the college stoner crowd. However, he does tend to mix it up from time to time with some more witty and high brow material. (...and then will have a segment with a masturbating bear or something similar to make sure you remembered what you were watching)

That said, on the whole, it's mostly more "immature" than Leno and the ratings are reflecting that. I know quite a few people who watched Letterman and then Conan and now those people are being forced to choose.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Dare I ask- what is Nightline's makeover?

This article probably summarizes it better than I could have
The show's recent hot streak is due in large part to some hot topics and better interaction with viewers.

Thursday’s episode focused on the so-called celebrity diet wars, exploring the strategies of weight loss powerhouses Nutrisystem, Jenny Craig and others by using star spokespeople like Marie Osmond and Valerie Bertinelli.

Tuesday’s episode focused on how technology and the internet are shaping people’s sex lives, from erotic service ads on Craigslist to a site dedicated specifically to married folks looking to cheat.

These topics reflect how “Nightline” has changed in recent years to attract younger viewers. Under former anchor Ted Koppel, the show was much more staid and often politically oriented, focusing on just one topic per show. Now "Nightline" explores a main topic but also has secondary ones, making it more of a traditional newsmagazine.

[rowech]

I think Conan's problem is his monolouge (sp?) is horrible...I mean really bad. When he's interacting with guests, he's much better.

I've watched some the last couple of weeks...I think he's starting to feel pressure...you can see it in the way he asks questions, delievers jokes, etc. Every time one bombs, his face says oh crap.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by rowech

I think Conan's problem is his monolouge (sp?) is horrible...I mean really bad. When he's interacting with guests, he's much better.

I've watched some the last couple of weeks...I think he's starting to feel pressure...you can see it in the way he asks questions, delievers jokes, etc. Every time one bombs, his face says oh crap.

The thing is, it doesn't matter what they think. Well, sort of. He could do amazing with his studio audience but that doesn't help if he's not hitting some other demographics from people watching at home. And that was always the risk of this move: Can he start building on his Tonight Show audience once he solidifies it or is he just going to fall back to having the numbers he had at 11:30 (CT) plus a few local news stragglers?

SI

[rowech]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

The thing is, it doesn't matter what they think. Well, sort of. He could do amazing with his studio audience but that doesn't help if he's not hitting some other demographics from people watching at home. And that was always the risk of this move: Can he start building on his Tonight Show audience once he solidifies it or is he just going to fall back to having the numbers he had at 11:30 (CT) plus a few local news stragglers?

SI

I don't think there was ever a chance of him retaining parts of Leno's audience. However, I don't think Letterman would keep them either.

[kcchief19]

Late Night TV Ratings

Another win by Letterman of 800k total viewers, and this time he beat Nightline as well. The Michael Jackson boost is wearing off for them, and Letterman doesn't seem to have slipped too much from the McCartney boost.

Interestingly, the CBS press release says they tied among adults 25-54 and NBC says Conan won 25-54 but neither reported the numbers for that demo. Somebody's fibbin'.

Two scary numbers for NBC and Conan: Letterman was up 14% in households and 16% in viewers from the same week last year while Conan is down from . And while Conan is touted as having the better demographics among younger viewers, he's beating Letterman by smaller margins than Leno was and the lead is continuing to shrink week-to-week.

And in the category of things that I think are speculation and will never happen, here comes a claim that NBC may consider moving Leno to 10:30 ET and moving late local news to 10 p.m. so Leno can lead-in to Conan. I don't think there is anyway NBC forces its affiliates to move late local news -- unless your decision is that if Leno doesn't work, you're going the Fox route and only offering two hours of primetime per night. But why would you upend the entire network because Letterman is beating Conan?
http://www.newser.com/story/65692/de...-bbc-exec.html

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

here comes a claim that NBC may consider moving Leno to 10:30 ET and moving late local news to 10 p.m. so Leno can lead-in to Conan. I don't think there is anyway NBC forces its affiliates to move late local news
http://www.newser.com/story/65692/de...-bbc-exec.html

I can't see that one happening in the large majority of markets either unless, as you say, they simply abandon 10 pm onward. And if that happens, they'll have to deal with a significant number of defections in markets where affiliates have expiring contracts at the same time other affiliates have expiring contracts.

edit to add

Interestingly, the CBS press release says they tied among adults 25-54 and NBC says Conan won 25-54 but neither reported the numbers for that demo. Somebody's fibbin'.

No idea whether it's the case in this instance or not but you'll see that happen once in a while when two programs are in a virtual tie near a rounding point. One of them will round off and say "we're tied" while the other will round/extend the decimal and say "we won".

[kcchief19]

A tangent to this conversation but certainly Leno related ...

They've posted the July sweeps numbers for KC and our NBC affiliate soared from the basement to No. 2 in news, by passing the if-it-bleeds-it-leads CBS affiliate behind only the ABC affiliate, which in 2 of the last 3 sweeps as been the top-rated ABC affiliate in the nation.

What's surprising to me about this was this nugget in terms of how the NBC station's 10 pm news did -- lead-in ratings for their 10 pm news are up 59% from July 2008. Now, I don't know how or why, other than NBC's summer lineup last year was an abomination and it's only slightly less so this year. I don't know if NBC is feeling a ratings surge, but it definitely underscores the importance of a lead-in.

Which brings us to Leno leading into local news. In discussions of this the general conclusion has been that NBC is going this route knowing ratings will be low but the programming is cheaper than say ER. But can NBC affiliates survive with a profitable but poorly rated lead-in to late local news?

We know Leno isn't going to draw Mentalist-size audiences. And in turn, will the bad Leno lead-in be followed by lower NBC affiliate ratings and in turn lower Conan ratings. I'm further intrigued because I was watching the CBS local news last night (which I never do) and was struck by the anchors introducing promos for Letterman. They don't want people to check out what's on Conan.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

A tangent to this conversation but certainly Leno related ...

They've posted the July sweeps numbers for KC and our NBC affiliate soared from the basement to No. 2 in news, by passing the if-it-bleeds-it-leads CBS affiliate behind only the ABC affiliate, which in 2 of the last 3 sweeps as been the top-rated ABC affiliate in the nation.

What's surprising to me about this was this nugget in terms of how the NBC station's 10 pm news did -- lead-in ratings for their 10 pm news are up 59% from July 2008. Now, I don't know how or why, other than NBC's summer lineup last year was an abomination and it's only slightly less so this year. I don't know if NBC is feeling a ratings surge, but it definitely underscores the importance of a lead-in.

Which brings us to Leno leading into local news. In discussions of this the general conclusion has been that NBC is going this route knowing ratings will be low but the programming is cheaper than say ER. But can NBC affiliates survive with a profitable but poorly rated lead-in to late local news?

We know Leno isn't going to draw Mentalist-size audiences. And in turn, will the bad Leno lead-in be followed by lower NBC affiliate ratings and in turn lower Conan ratings. I'm further intrigued because I was watching the CBS local news last night (which I never do) and was struck by the anchors introducing promos for Letterman. They don't want people to check out what's on Conan.

Yeah, I made this point in one of the other threads. I have no doubt that going cheaper with Leno will make them profitable, but it also makes them smaller. That could cause a trigger effect across the entire network and through their affiliates. This is a network that is already hurting from the mess Ben Silverman left them in.

NBC was no doubt losing money on the $13 million/hr they were spending on ER, or the even more expensive Friends ($6 million per half hour just for the cast), but both shows were holding up others shows across the networks. One thing that started to hurt Letterman in the 90s was CBS's downfall and NBC's resurgence. Letterman had absolutely no chance on Thursday nights. At least 3 times as many people knew who was on Leno.

[RedKingGold]

Bronson Arroyo might have used steroids or might be gay.

[Izulde]

I've never found Conan funny. Nor Jimmy Fallon for that matter. Letterman's not bad, but Leno's been the most amusing to me.

[larrymcg421]

And now Letterman repeats are beating new Conan episodes:

Late-Night Ratings: Letterman Repeats Top Conan Originals - 2009-08-13 13:57:20 EDT | Broadcasting & Cable