Forbes 10 sports franchises most likely to move

[Young Drachma]

The 10 Sports Franchises Most Likely To Move - Forbes.com

What do the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Islanders and basketball's New Orleans Hornets all have in common?

Dreary stadiums they don't own and stalling businesses eager to rake in more cash. In other words, they're all ripe for a move. And that means city or state governments around the country can expect them to come calling for help financing a new venue.

Based on franchise valuations, revenue and attendance trends over the past few years, the most stagnant team businesses--those with the greatest likelihoods of hitting the road at some point--are those stuck in outdated arenas and stadiums. While market size drives local sponsorship deals and TV money, souped-up venues that drive revenue through high ticket prices, luxury suites and corporate packages are the order of the day. You don't have that, you're not in the game.

"The single biggest factor is ticket revenue, and a new venue is going to drive high-end ticket sales," says Bernie Mullin, who runs the Atlanta-based Aspire Group, an industry consultant.

Not that many clubs are likely to pull up the stakes anytime soon. The tough economic environment should, at least in the short term, curtail the ability of sports franchises to play one market against another in search of a sweet stadium deal. The consumer appetite for muni bonds and taxpayer subsidies in support of sports venues may take awhile to bounce back.

"Owners may not be able to shop their franchises around as much for awhile," says Shawn McBride, a vice president with Ketchum Sports Marketing.

But ultimately, these things have a way of coming back around. Desirable landing places for struggling teams, Mullin believes, include Las Vegas and Orange County, Calif., (which has the goods for a state-of-the-art facility and enough people for a strong fan base despite the plethora of teams up the road in Los Angeles). He also thinks Kansas City, Mo., despite its modest size, is ripe for an NHL or NBA club.

Other cities that experts expect to see in the market for new teams are Orlando, Fla., (already a secondary market for baseball's Rays) and Austin, Texas.

For the NFL in particular, market size doesn't much matter. How else to explain a thriving franchise in Green Bay, Wis., while Los Angeles sits empty? Almost any city can fill a 60,000-seat football stadium for eight home games a year, while league-controlled TV millions are doled out to all 32 teams equally. Yet the league has witnessed five franchise shifts since 1984.

For football owners in particular, the stadium deal is the big differentiator, and it's the only thing a local owner can really control. Lure a city into subsidizing a stadium complete with luxury box riches and the lion's share of revenues, and you've got yourself a more profitable place to play. That's what spurred the profitable Los Angeles Rams to bolt for St. Louis in 1995 and the Cleveland Browns to Baltimore a year later.

Major League Baseball, a world of local TV deals and 81 annual games that make market size much more important, has had just one franchise move since 1970--that being the excursion of the struggling Montreal Expos to Washington, D.C., three years ago.

If any club is going to break that spell, expect it to come from Florida, a seemingly natural baseball market that hasn't lived up to expectations. Both the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays have been at or near the bottom of the league in attendance for a decade, thanks in part to the dreary stadiums they call home. Sports marketing experts call the Marlins' Dolphin Stadium and the Rays' Tropicana Field "major impediments" to success. Even a Rays World Series title this year, which is entirely possible, is unlikely to keep the franchise from bolting if voters don't approve the team's public-private offer for a new waterfront home in St. Petersburg.

Other struggling small-market franchises like the Kansas City Royals, who have extensively renovated Kauffman Stadium, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, who got their dream playground, PNC Park, in 2001, don't seem to be headed anywhere.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles sits open as the big vacuum for the NFL, a good thing for owners of the league's struggling franchises. The economy may slow the flow of window shopping across state lines for awhile, but a potential jewel like L.A. always stands out.

"That's the carrot that owners hold over their cities' heads," says McBride.

[Young Drachma]

It's not a ranked list, but:

Florida Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays
Buffalo Bills
Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers
New York Islanders
Phoenix Coyotes
Nashville Predators
New Orleans Hornets
Charlotte Bobcats

are the teams they mentioned.

[bob]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

It's not a ranked list, but:

Florida Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays
Buffalo Bills
Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers
New York Islanders
Phoenix Coyotes
Nashville Predators
New Orleans Hornets
Charlotte Bobcats

are the teams they mentioned.

No Thrashers? The seven loyal fans will be happy to hear that.

[Young Drachma]

I think Forbes was looking at team stadium situations and finances of the club, not really "fan interest." Because I doubt seriously the Vikings would ever go anywhere and the Niners wouldn't go outside the region, if they did move.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think Forbes was looking at team stadium situations and finances of the club, not really "fan interest." Because I doubt seriously the Vikings would ever go anywhere and the Niners wouldn't go outside the region, if they did move.

I think Cleveland Brown fans might have something to say.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

New York Islanders
Phoenix Coyotes
Nashville Predators

Doesn't "move" imply that there's another city that would want you?

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

It's not a ranked list, but:

Florida Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays
Buffalo Bills
Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers
New York Islanders
Phoenix Coyotes
Nashville Predators
New Orleans Hornets
Charlotte Bobcats

are the teams they mentioned.

The owner is expected to lose $30M this year, and reach $200M losses total since purchasing the team in 2001...for $120M. OUCH.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think Forbes was looking at team stadium situations and finances of the club, not really "fan interest." Because I doubt seriously the Vikings would ever go anywhere and the Niners wouldn't go outside the region, if they did move.

I think Forbes is also overlooking Jacksonville, which is one of the teams I have heard being mentioned the most over the last year or so.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Doesn't "move" imply that there's another city that would want you?

Nashville would probably be on its way to Kansas City if part-owner Boots Del Biaggio wasn't a fraud; they had an arena deal already worked out with the city. And if Jim Balsillie was allowed to buy the Predator franchise, they'd be in Hamilton.

[Wolfpack]

At least as far as the Bobcats are concerned, all the wounds are mostly self-inflicted. The city, after all, decided to build the NBA an arena after George Shinn followed through on his threat to move the Hornets if he didn't get a new arena. However, the whole Shinn mess really soured the area on the NBA in general, so the new team did start a bit behind the eight-ball. Even so, the new ownership has been nothing short of a disaster. Everything that Bob Johnson has touched related to the team has turned to shoddy aluminum, from the incredibly dumb idea that Charlotte merited its own sports network that died a quick, painful death in just a year to hiring the greatest athlete/second-worst front office man in league history, himself mostly absentee, and then bitterly complaining when the city didn't turn out for such a poorly run team. Because the TV network died, the team found itself on a local news network station for its over-the-air games, which severely cramped its exposure in most parts of the Carolinas. If you didn't have TWC, you couldn't see the team--a fact that only changed last year when Time Warner got the Bobcats to give them naming rights to the arena in exchange for Time Warner giving up the rights to TV games to FSN. Of course, the Bobcats have been cutting staff this year and even wanted to drop radio broadcasts (further eroding what little exposure they've got) until the NBA basically told them they couldn't.

It's hard to say whether it was unfortunate the league opted for Johnson to be the owner because the alternative was a group that prominently featured Larry Bird. Given how Bird hasn't exactly lit things up in Indiana, this may have been a no-win situation for Charlotte.

It's all pretty unfortunate, because Charlotte did prove for about a decade that it could support both colleges and the NBA with resounding success. Without that success, the Panthers don't come to Charlotte in 1995 and possibly the Hurricanes don't move to Raleigh in the late 1990s.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Doesn't "move" imply that there's another city that would want you?

Winnipeg is not too proud to welcome the Coyotes back home.

[stevew]

I predict an imminent move to Kansas city for any nhl or NBA team on this list

Its true I tell ya!

[kcchief19]

Kansas City will take a team, no questions asked. We have got to have a permanent tenant in our new arena. We've already crossed the line where we don't care if it's a good, bad or expansion team and we really don't care if it's NHL or NBA. We'd take both although I don't think we can support both.

The Chiefs and Royals have new leases tied to the renovations that will keep them here for a while. The real question mark in Missouri is the Rams. Their deal in St. Louis will likely allow them to shop around in 2015 if the city doesn't build a new stadium and the thing is only 20 years old.

But the magic question is who wants and can afford an NFL team? San Antonio seems to be the only place with an empty building but it's 15 years old and not exactly state of the art anymore either. Los Angeles doesn't seem to have anyone willing and able to make it happen. Toronto stealing or sharing the Bills with Buffalo seems plausible. Other than that, where?

The article mentions a truth which is that you really don't need to be a major city to sell out 16 NFL games. If some crazy billionaire wanted to look at a football-crazy market like somewhere in Oklahoma, you might be able to pull it off.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Forbes.com

What do the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Islanders and basketball's New Orleans Hornets all have in common?

Dreary stadiums they don't own and stalling businesses eager to rake in more cash. In other words, they're all ripe for a move. And that means city or state governments around the country can expect them to come calling for help financing a new venue.

The Hornets' arena is hardly dreary. There are no stadium issues here, and the team is doing very well, with full houses, or very close to it, almost every night. Much of the national media continues to pretend it's not happening. Am unclear why.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Kansas City will take a team, no questions asked. We have got to have a permanent tenant in our new arena. We've already crossed the line where we don't care if it's a good, bad or expansion team and we really don't care if it's NHL or NBA. We'd take both although I don't think we can support both.

The Chiefs and Royals have new leases tied to the renovations that will keep them here for a while. The real question mark in Missouri is the Rams. Their deal in St. Louis will likely allow them to shop around in 2015 if the city doesn't build a new stadium and the thing is only 20 years old.

But the magic question is who wants and can afford an NFL team? San Antonio seems to be the only place with an empty building but it's 15 years old and not exactly state of the art anymore either. Los Angeles doesn't seem to have anyone willing and able to make it happen. Toronto stealing or sharing the Bills with Buffalo seems plausible. Other than that, where?

The article mentions a truth which is that you really don't need to be a major city to sell out 16 NFL games. If some crazy billionaire wanted to look at a football-crazy market like somewhere in Oklahoma, you might be able to pull it off.

I think you weren't around much when the unofficial KC mouthpiece was spouting daily crap about how the Pens to KC was such a done deal.

And an NFL level team could survive pretty much anywhere with a good stadium and matt millen or Al Davis not running the show

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Los Angeles doesn't seem to have anyone willing and able to make it happen.

Considering there is more or less a promise to build a stadium if a team comes available in the City of Industry, and given the Rams' past history in LA, I think this is the one team LA would find a way to get past its political squabbles to bring back.

And since the Wicked Witch is gone, I would welcome that as an old Rams fan. I really doubt it happens, though.