Colts vs. Pats

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Then again, Brady hasn't had the offense that the Colts have had. When Dillon came over to the Colts he was in the decline of his career. Edge > Dillon. Harrison, Wayne > Pats receivers.

So in the end, it's just a wash anyhow.

Its a myth that Manning has always had a great running game. James was awesome in 1999 and 2000, but then missed 10 games in 2001, played very poorly in 2002 and was average in 2003. It is true that he was awesome again in 2004 and 2005, but Dillon was even more awesome in 2004.

According to Footballoutsiders stats here is how the two teams running games have fared since 2001: (in terms of % better or worse than average)

Season	Colts	Pats
2006	+1.6	-1.4
2005	+8.0	-9.1
2004	+9.7	+10.5
2003	-5.0	-9.3
2002	-7.6	+3.8
2001	-3.4	-9.8

Meanwhile, over the same time period its pretty obvious which defense has been better: (in terms of % better or worse than average, negative is good this time)

Season	Colts	Pats
2006	+16.7	-3.2
2005	-8.8	+10.5
2004	+3.5	-11.3
2003	-1.3	-22.0
2002	+5.5	+0.3
2001	+15.4	-6.3

Receivers are a different story and its safe to say the Colts have clearly had the better group since at least 2004 when Wayne blossomed. Then again, the Colts actually spend money to keep their wideouts unlike the Pats.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Exactly .

I'm not saying that the Colts haven't had more offensive weapons (although I think it's up for debate how much better), but to use Dillon being on the "decline" of his career when he had his best year (sorry, 1600 yards) with the Patriots doesn't make sense.

I don't buy into either one having a decided advantage surrounding cast wise.

[Tekneek]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

I don't buy into either one having a decided advantage surrounding cast wise.

The Patriots certainly seem to have much more experience in the backfield this season. Colts may have more players, but the Patriots have more real NFL experience back there. The fact that New England had almost three times as many yards rushing reveals how important that difference may have been on the field.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

I don't buy into either one having a decided advantage surrounding cast wise.

I'm pretty much with you on that...

[Chubby]

So who won?

[FrogMan]

Originally Posted by Tekneek

The Patriots certainly seem to have much more experience in the backfield this season. Colts may have more players, but the Patriots have more real NFL experience back there. The fact that New England had almost three times as many yards rushing reveals how important that difference may have been on the field.

err, you do realize that a bit more than half the rushing yards the Pats had came from Laurence Maroney, a rookie. Not sure where the experience came from here...

FM

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by FrogMan

err, you do realize that a bit more than half the rushing yards the Pats had came from Laurence Maroney, a rookie. Not sure where the experience came from here...

FM

don't mock such genius

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by FrogMan

err, you do realize that a bit more than half the rushing yards the Pats had came from Laurence Maroney, a rookie. Not sure where the experience came from here...

FM

Mentoring and Affinity.

[FrogMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Mentoring and Affinity.

oh, sorry, forgot to check the zodiac signs... And by affinity, you mean the Visa ad their o-line did, right?

FM

[FrogMan]

Originally Posted by Tekneek

I think Maroney does better because of having better backs around him than Addai does when he doesn't have anybody else around him to get the job done. Maybe I am overplaying the importance of that, but the Patriots didn't have to take anybody other than Addai seriously out of the backfield and that has to make a big difference with your defensive calling.

then say "the pats had more talent in the backfield", would make more sense to me.

FM

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Tekneek

I think Maroney does better because of having better backs around him than Addai does when he doesn't have anybody else around him to get the job done. Maybe I am overplaying the importance of that, but the Patriots didn't have to take anybody other than Addai seriously out of the backfield and that has to make a big difference with your defensive calling.

stay off the drugs son

[Tekneek]

Originally Posted by FrogMan

then say "the pats had more talent in the backfield", would make more sense to me.

FM

More experience and talent then, to be more accurate.

[Kodos]

I like Maroney a lot more than Ronnie Brown.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Tekneek

Ok. Both the Colts and Patriots have backfields with just the same amount of NFL experience, despite what their rosters would indicate. Or Maroney would do just as well with Rhodes and some nobodies as he does with the guys the Pats do have. I guess that's your point.

Maroney is a better player than Addai but that isn't a function of the Pats having Dillon or the Colts having Rhodes.

The Colts not being able to stop the run isn't a function of that either. Nor is the Pats better ability to stop the run.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by wade moore

1,400 yards is the decline of his career?

An anomaly. Here are his stats and although 2003 was a shortened year because he sat out a few games (not due to injury) you can't compare what he did in 2004 for one year compared to what Edgerrin James did for his career in Indy. This doesn't even take into account Edgerrin James' receiving stats.

Year Team                  G GS Att Yds  Avg Lg TD 20+ 1st 
1997 Cincinnati Bengals   16  6 233 1129 4.8 71 10  9 57 
1998 Cincinnati Bengals   15 15 262 1130 4.3 66  4  4 56 
1999 Cincinnati Bengals   15 15 263 1200 4.6 50  5 12 61 
2000 Cincinnati Bengals   16 16 315 1435 4.6 80  7 12 66 
2001 Cincinnati Bengals   16 16 340 1315 3.9 96 10  9 69 
2002 Cincinnati Bengals   16 16 314 1311 4.2 67  7  5 69 
2003 Cincinnati Bengals   13 11 138  541 3.9 39  2  3 24 
2004 New England Patriots 15 14 345 1635 4.7 44 12  8 81 
2005 New England Patriots 12 10 209  733 3.5 29 12  2 49 
2006 New England Patriots  8  7  98  381 3.9 17  6  0 23

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Not to get in the middle of this... but I wonder what Manning's record would be with Brady's defense. Just like Montana and Marino, if you took Dan Marino and put him with Roger Craig, Jerry Rice, Ronnie Lott, etc, I think he wins a few Super Bowls.

Amen!

Marino over Montana, P. Manning over Brady!

Actually, for me it breaks down like this:

Marino > Montana > P. Manning > Brady

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

An anomaly. Here are his stats and although 2003 was a shortened year because he sat out a few games (not due to injury) you can't compare what he did in 2004 for one year compared to what Edgerrin James did for his career in Indy. This doesn't even take into account Edgerrin James' receiving stats.

Year Team                  G GS Att Yds  Avg Lg TD 20+ 1st 
1997 Cincinnati Bengals   16  6 233 1129 4.8 71 10  9 57 
1998 Cincinnati Bengals   15 15 262 1130 4.3 66  4  4 56 
1999 Cincinnati Bengals   15 15 263 1200 4.6 50  5 12 61 
2000 Cincinnati Bengals   16 16 315 1435 4.6 80  7 12 66 
2001 Cincinnati Bengals   16 16 340 1315 3.9 96 10  9 69 
2002 Cincinnati Bengals   16 16 314 1311 4.2 67  7  5 69 
2003 Cincinnati Bengals   13 11 138  541 3.9 39  2  3 24 
2004 New England Patriots 15 14 345 1635 4.7 44 12  8 81 
2005 New England Patriots 12 10 209  733 3.5 29 12  2 49 
2006 New England Patriots  8  7  98  381 3.9 17  6  0 23

I know it's fun to compare apples to oranges, but it's not very useful...

We are talking about Dillon with the Patriots. And at the SAME TIME Edge with the Colts. So, all you can really compare is the 2004/2005 season. He had an amazing (on par for his career) 2004 season. Then he had a shortened season again in 2005. The claim was made that edge gave a huge benefit while Dillon was on the decline of his career. the stats just don't back that up. I see no point where Dillon's production, while on the field, is on a major decline with the Patriots. He had injury problems last year, and they have a new young stud back that they are mixing him with, but his performance has not been on some downfall.

[jeff061]

The playcalling, ugh, that bastard Belichick made me agree with Madden. I shall not forget this.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Maroney is a better player than Addai but that isn't a function of the Pats having Dillon or the Colts having Rhodes.

The Colts not being able to stop the run isn't a function of that either. Nor is the Pats better ability to stop the run.

Say what?

How many Colts games have you watched to make this claim? So lets do the math since Maroney is clearly the better back and eliminate the Colts vs. Pats game since as you said, one team can't stop the run while the other can.

Through 7 games

Running

Addai 87 carries 447 yards 1td 5.14ypc
Maroney 94 carries 395 yards 3td 4.2 ypc

Recieving

Addai 19 catches 144 yards 1td
Maroney 9 catches 110 yards 0td

Clearly Maroney is the better back. It is pretty clear to me atleast. Now lets see the difference they make from the main back they split carries with running the ball wise. Ofcourse, since the defenses in question last night were so clearly different, I will factor out the Colts-Pats game once again.

Rhodes 95 carries 299 yards 3td 3.15ypc

Here Addai is good for nearly 2 full ypc more than the man he splits carries with. Clearly, even if you have not seen Addai play, that the defenses clearly don't just lay down when he gets in the game. He is doing something to get two extra yards a carry.

Dillon 85 carries 333 yards 4tds 3.9ypc

Again, Maroney is clearly more effective than the man he splits time with, but it is not as pronounced. He is getting 0.3 more ypc than Dillon, which is huge in the NFL.

I think in the end, anyone who says Maroney is clearly the better back has not watched the two play. I have not watched nearly enough Maroney to make a call, but I will say I'd be very happy to have Addai on any team that I rooted for in the NFL.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Say what?

How many Colts games have you watched to make this claim? So lets do the math since Maroney is clearly the better back and eliminate the Colts vs. Pats game since as you said, one team can't stop the run while the other can.

Through 7 games

Running

Addai 87 carries 447 yards 1td 5.14ypc
Maroney 94 carries 395 yards 3td 4.2 ypc

Recieving

Addai 19 catches 144 yards 1td
Maroney 9 catches 110 yards 0td

Clearly Maroney is the better back. It is pretty clear to me atleast. Now lets see the difference they make from the main back they split carries with running the ball wise. Ofcourse, since the defenses in question last night were so clearly different, I will factor out the Colts-Pats game once again.

Rhodes 95 carries 299 yards 3td 3.15ypc

Here Addai is good for nearly 2 full ypc more than the man he splits carries with. Clearly, even if you have not seen Addai play, that the defenses clearly don't just lay down when he gets in the game. He is doing something to get two extra yards a carry.

Dillon 85 carries 333 yards 4tds 3.9ypc

Again, Maroney is clearly more effective than the man he splits time with, but it is not as pronounced. He is getting 0.3 more ypc than Dillon, which is huge in the NFL.

I think in the end, anyone who says Maroney is clearly the better back has not watched the two play. I have not watched nearly enough Maroney to make a call, but I will say I'd be very happy to have Addai on any team that I rooted for in the NFL.

If you can't watch both and conclude that Maroney is a better player than you need additional assistance.

If you want to rely on the raw numbers feel free but how many gms would take maroney over addai right now? 90% or more?

Even the Colts would.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

If you can't watch both and conclude that Maroney is a better player than you need additional assistance.

If you want to rely on the raw numbers feel free but how many gms would take maroney over addai right now? 90% or more?

Even the Colts would.

I still find a hard time figuring out what you base this on. The teams have two common foes so far this season.

NYJ

Addai 20 carries 84 yards 1 td 3 catches 15 yards
Maroney 16 carries 65 yards 1 td 0 catches

Denver

Addai 17 rushes 93 yards 5 catches 37 yards
Maroney 12 rushes 18 yards 5 catches 61 yards

Unless you personally know 90% of NFL gms I am calling bullshit. You have seen Addai, what, once in the NFL? And it was last night? Was your information from the east coast media?

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I still find a hard time figuring out what you base this on. The teams have two common foes so far this season.

NYJ

Addai 20 carries 84 yards 1 td 3 catches 15 yards
Maroney 16 carries 65 yards 1 td 0 catches

Denver

Addai 17 rushes 93 yards 5 catches 37 yards
Maroney 12 rushes 18 yards 5 catches 61 yards

Unless you personally know 90% of NFL gms I am calling bullshit. You have seen Addai, what, once in the NFL? And it was last night? Was your information from the east coast media?

Please stop. Common opponent...lol.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Please stop. Common opponent...lol.

OK then. I will bow out to your personal friendship with 90% of the NFL gms.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Please stop. Common opponent...lol.

What do you think the evil Patriots back is better than the good Colts back?

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by dubb93

OK then. I will bow out to your personal friendship with 90% of the NFL gms.

You'll thank me. I've seen them both. My initial impression of Addai in the preseason is he sucked. Danced in the hole. Real undecisive and played small. I'll say he's better but nothing all that special. Right now fairly average but benefitting from the Colts scheme. I know that's very hard for you to grasp.

Maroney has superior physical tools and balance. Look up some runs. Runs where you say that players aren't supposed to do that. Look up his kick returns. Just look at him run. He plays big and makes plays.

Right now Addai takes what is there where Maroney has to potential to go 70 yards every play.

Stats will bear it out differently because this is football.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

You'll thank me. I've seen them both. My initial impression of Addai in the preseason is he sucked. Danced in the hole. Real undecisive and played small. I'll say he's better but nothing all that special. Right now fairly average but benefitting from the Colts scheme. I know that's very hard for you to grasp.

Maroney has superior physical tools and balance. Look up some runs. Runs where you say that players aren't supposed to do that. Look up his kick returns. Just look at him run. He plays big and makes plays.

Right now Addai takes what is there where Maroney has to potential to go 70 yards every play.

Stats will bear it out differently because this is football.

FWIW, as a Colts fan, I agree that Maroney is a better runner right now.

That being said - I think that Addai is going to be a very good back for the Colts and has proven a little more as a receiver than Maroney has.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

You'll thank me. I've seen them both. My initial impression of Addai in the preseason is he sucked. Danced in the hole. Real undecisive and played small. I'll say he's better but nothing all that special. Right now fairly average but benefitting from the Colts scheme. I know that's very hard for you to grasp.

Maroney has superior physical tools and balance. Look up some runs. Runs where you say that players aren't supposed to do that. Look up his kick returns. Just look at him run. He plays big and makes plays.

Right now Addai takes what is there where Maroney has to potential to go 70 yards every play.

Stats will bear it out differently because this is football.

This makes it sound like Addai gets the ball and falls down. He has carried tacklers as well as made something from nothing on runs so far this year. They are both rookies, you can't clearly say one is better than the other.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by wade moore

FWIW, as a Colts fan, I agree that Maroney is a better runner right now.

That being said - I think that Addai is going to be a very good back for the Colts and has proven a little more as a receiver than Maroney has.

For the Colts Addai is a fine fit. I think Addai can be what they need but I think Maroney can be special. We'll see what happens but from a tools standpoint I think Maroney has shown more and made more plays.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

For the Colts Addai is a fine fit. I think Addai can be what they need but I think Maroney can be special. We'll see what happens but from a tools standpoint I think Maroney has shown more and made more plays.

Totally agreed. My only "criticism" of Maroney would be that he hasn't shown me much as a pass-catcher - but that's what they have Faulk for (most recent game ignored).

Addai runs really well when he has holes. I have seen very few times (and I've watched at least 4 of the Colts games) where Addai makes a hole for himself or turns a nothing run into something.

Maroney, in the 2 or 3 games I've seen him, hsa done it many times that I've seen him. And as you said, his returns show some of the skills he has.

[Daimyo]

I wanted the Colts to draft Maroney and was very disappointed when the Pats grabbed him. I thought he would be the best RB in the class.

However, outside of having a magical crystal ball I'm not sure how you can look at the two right now and conclude that Maroney is better or will be the better back... every stat points to Addai having a much better year. In addition to the raw numbers here is how they rank according to footballoutsiders stats which are context dependent: (not including last night's game - hasn't been updated yet)

Rushing:
Player	DPAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	Success Rate	Rank
Addai	13.7	5th	+16.3%	7th	71%	1st
Maroney	4.0	34th	+0.0%	25th	45%	25th
Receiving:
Player	DPAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank
Addai	3.3	11th	+14.4%	12th
Maroney	-0.1	Doesn't Qualify	-1.2%	Doesn't Qualify

In addition, Addai is on pace to have the highest ever success rate for a RB (going back to 1999) with 71%. Success rate is the percentage of a RB's carries that "succeed" with success being defined as follows:

* In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
* If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
* If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

[dime]

Originally Posted by Izulde

Amen!

Actually, for me it breaks down like this:

Elway > Marino > Montana > P. Manning > Brady

fixed.

[k0ruptr]

Corey Dillon is a lock for first ballot HOF