NFL Coach Firing - Formula

21C · 01-02-2006, 06:00 AM

I couldn't find the original thread I posted this in so I'm guessing it got deleted.

Much like my MVP formula, I devised a calculation to work out the likelihood of an NFL head coach getting fired. It doesn't account for outside influences ( Mike Tice or Mike Martz ) or retirements ( Dick Vermeil ) but it's a straight out formula. I started working on it for use with online leagues and it went from there.

Anything below a 40 is firing material unless a coach is in his first or second season. Coaches over 40 aren't safe since one bad season ( Green Bay ) puts a coach at risk.

I've bolded coach firings as reported at end of Monday.

NFL	2005
Denver Broncos	131
Indianapolis Colts	121
Pittsburgh Steelers	119
New England Patriots	109
Philadelphia Eagles	88
St. Louis Rams	79
Green Bay Packers	75
Seattle Seahawks	73
Baltimore Ravens	69
Carolina Panthers	62
Tennessee Oilers	61
Kansas City Chiefs	61
Atlanta Falcons	59
Cincinnati Bengals	59
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	57
Jacksonville Jaguars	54
Miami Dolphins	53
Dallas Cowboys	52
New York Giants	52
San Diego Chargers	50
Minnesota Vikings	49
Washington Redskins	49
Chicago Bears	48
New York Jets	44
Cleveland Browns	44
Buffalo Bills	43
New Orleans Saints	39
San Francisco 49ers	38	(1st season)
Arizona Cardinals	36	(2nd season)
Oakland Raiders	30	(2nd season)
Detroit Lions	29
Houston Texans	18

QuikSand · 01-02-2006, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 21C

Anything below a 40 is firing material unless a coach is in his first or second season. Coaches over 40 aren't safe since one bad season ( Green Bay ) puts a coach at risk.

Any way you can find to put this into the formula?

Seems to me if you know these are relevant factors... rather than caveat the formula, why not try to work them in?

albionmoonlight · 01-02-2006, 08:35 AM

I realize that lists like this are more general guides than exact science.

But I still must comment on the fact that Baltimore's coach seems to be in a much better position than Carolina's.

cougarfreak · 01-02-2006, 09:18 AM

And Cincinnati's isn't in a great position either. I would guess that longevity plays a pretty large role in the formula.

21C · 01-02-2006, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Any way you can find to put this into the formula?

Seems to me if you know these are relevant factors... rather than caveat the formula, why not try to work them in?

I couldn't get it to work right without getting too much of a swing one way or the other. I think that a coach shouldn't be penalized for having one bad year after a strong couple of years. The only problem is that owners and fans can get too wrapped up in one bad year.

For example, Bill Cowher has had records of 7-9 in 1998 and 6-10 in 1999 and 2003 but taken the Steelers to 10+ win seasons in lots of other years.

The same thing with Dick Jauron in Chicago. One 13-3 season shouldn't make up for sub-.500 years every other season.

21C · 01-02-2006, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

And Cincinnati's isn't in a great position either. I would guess that longevity plays a pretty large role in the formula.

Not quite.

The formula is that every coach starts with 50.

Each subsequent season's score is last season's score multiplied by ( 8 + Wins ) / 16.

An 8-8 season means that your score stays the same.
A winning season increases your score.
A losing season drops it.
No score can be bigger than 100 - that means that the DEN, IND, PIT and NE scores above will count as 100 for next season's calculations.

Like albionmoonlight said, it's merely a guide.

QuikSand · 01-02-2006, 11:28 AM

I wonder if such a system, just based on wins and losses, prehaps with a comparison to prior years, could be put to an actual test -- look for what kind of patterns have historically led to actual firings, rather than just showing some measurement of how a given coach has done, overall.

I would have to guess that a team with a coash in his 3rd-6th year, whose win total drops by three games or more might be a "sweet spot" -- independent of what kind of success the team had overall. (Drop from 12-4 to 8-8 would be a red flag, just as a drop from 8-8 to 4-12 would be)

Just a thought, along these lines. Interesting concept.

01-02-2006, 08:35 AM	#3
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	I realize that lists like this are more general guides than exact science. But I still must comment on the fact that Baltimore's coach seems to be in a much better position than Carolina's.

01-02-2006, 09:18 AM	#4
cougarfreak College Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Out of Grad School Hell :)	And Cincinnati's isn't in a great position either. I would guess that longevity plays a pretty large role in the formula.

01-02-2006, 11:28 AM	#7
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	I wonder if such a system, just based on wins and losses, prehaps with a comparison to prior years, could be put to an actual test -- look for what kind of patterns have historically led to actual firings, rather than just showing some measurement of how a given coach has done, overall. I would have to guess that a team with a coash in his 3rd-6th year, whose win total drops by three games or more might be a "sweet spot" -- independent of what kind of success the team had overall. (Drop from 12-4 to 8-8 would be a red flag, just as a drop from 8-8 to 4-12 would be) Just a thought, along these lines. Interesting concept.

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