The annual Red River Shootout thread

[cartman]

Hello all,

In honor of the topic that got us booted off of the General Discussion board and set us up here, it's time to start the trash talking.

I have my general outline of my breakdown of the game, and I will post my full disseration on Friday. Until then, the gloves are off, let's have at it!

[IMetTrentGreen]

i was going to write something, but who gives a crap

ou 34 - texas 10

[IMetTrentGreen]

well, i'll at least do keys of the game.

for texas:
most important
- get a pass rush (unlikely)
- tackle (unlikely)
2nd most important
- cover well on special teams (likely)
- let vince play all game (no idea)
- hold on to the damn football (unlikely)

for ou:
- show up (likely)
- dont die (likely)
- remember which team you play for (likely)

[Cuckoo]

I'll do a few keys to the game, but I think I agree (for possibly the first time ever) with IMetTrentGreen's score pick. It may end up closer if Texas can play to their potential, but I haven't seen that yet from them so I'm not betting on it. Here are my opinions on important factors:

For Texas:

-Play pass defense. OU won't burn you on the ground, but they will through the air. Try to get pressure, but most of all, take away the deep stuff.

-On offense, spread it out. Yes, OU is quick, we all know that, but they're also vulnerable to big plays. If you can get a few run plays going, work off playaction. Take your shots, find holes in the zone, and pick on the corners if they ever go one-on-one.

-Don't kick the ball to Antonio Perkins. Just don't do it.

For OU:

-Shut down the running game. Force Mock to win with his arm. He is not consistent enough in the passing game to beat you.

-Block up front. Texas has a good defense, and you have to get a push in the middle and be able to run the ball up the gut. Otherwise, you're one dimensional and vulnerable.

-Field position is big. The punting game needs to force Mock to go the length of the field. He can make plays on a short field. Otherwise, he's questionable.

[the_meanstrosity]

IMTG, the big key for Texas is to protect their QB. Their O-Line looked weak against a down year KSU defense. I have a feeling that the Texas QB's are going to be scrambling an awful lot.

Texas needs to start Vincent Young in this game if they hope to have a chance. I can't see Mock doing anything against OU, but at least Young has the scrambling ability to keep OU honest.

I agree with IMTG's score as well. It could get ugly.

[IMetTrentGreen]

ksu is about equal in terms of pass rush with ou. the problem texas has is with running the ball on first down for a yard, then abandoning it to pass the next two downs. teams know this, and predictably tee off on 2nd and 3rd and long

what vince gives us is an ability to beat the rush. we can't beat it up front, so lets let him do it. he is as fast as anyone on ou's defense, and really tough to bring down. if he can move around, and give time for texas' recievers to get downfield (think a&m last year), texas can score points, move the ball, and win

on defense, texas can't tackle. but jones and works aren't exactly hard to bring down, so i don't know what to think about that matchup. jason white is fine when he has 10 seconds to throw, and texas has a good pass rush this year, so i don't know what to think about that either. ou could score anywhere between 0 and 50 points

however, any chance texas has tro win (and believe me, these two teams are not as far apart, on paper anyway, as most people think) will be negated by stupid or lazy mistakes, and ou will roll

[Huckleberry]

I had predicted OU 45, Texas 10 a couple of weeks ago.

However, Lance Mitchell out, Pasha Jackson out, Lynn McGruder out, Wayne Chambers playing injured, and Antonio Perkins playing injured, I will have to change it.

Oklahoma 31
Texas 17

[Vegas Vic]

Originally posted by IMetTrentGreen
what vince gives us is an ability to beat the rush. we can't beat it up front, so lets let him do it. he is as fast as anyone on ou's defense, and really tough to bring down.

Not as fast as Teddy Lehman.

[JeeberD]

Great, the Shootout. Now I-35 is going to be overrun by Okies and it's going to take me forever to get to work...

[the_meanstrosity]

IMTG, KSU's pass rush is not equal to OU's. Normally...yes. But this season KSU's defense has not gotten the pressure on the QB as they historically do. They had very little success against Marshall who was able to pick apart KSU. California was the same way though they did get 4 sacks due to Cal playing catch up.

KSU is having a down year defensively and that's to be expected since they did lose a good chunk of talent off of their defense last year. But don't mistake this year's KSU defense for what OU will bring this Saturday. OU's defense is one of the best in the nation and if Texas had trouble with KSU's defense they are really going to struggle with OU's.

[IMetTrentGreen]

KSU leads the big 12 in sacks, guy. they are good against the pass

marshall's OL is historically an incredible unit. thats no way to measure

[Vegas Vic]

Quite honestly, I think this game is a toss-up. The team that makes the last turnover will probably lose.

Throw the record books out the window in the Red River Shootout. What gives Texas a bit of an edge they've lacked in previous years is the underdog status. I think there's more pressure on OU to win, being the favorite.

Going into the game, I definitely think the QB situation is in much better shape for OU this season. Last year, Nate Hybl threw 4 interceptions in the game, yet the Sooners still won. This year, Jason White (who was widely considered to be the weak link going into the season) is on fire. He's completed 112 out of 166 attempts (67.5 %) for 1472 yards, 16 TD's and only 3 INT's. Add the fact that he's playing behind a massive OL that's only allowed 2 sacks so far, and I think you have to concede that this is a major improvement for OU from last year.

Defensively, the loss of Lance Mitchell is huge. He is OU's best player, and Wayne Chambers (who's not fully healthy himself) is a significant drop-off. On the plus side, OU's DL is using an 8 man rotation, and they're getting much better penetration and heat on the opposing QB's than they did last year. The secondary is outstanding, but they will be pushed to the limit facing probably the best WR corps in the nation.

I'll make a prediction: OU 24, Texas 21 on a last second Trey DiCarlo field goal.

[IMetTrentGreen]

ou's OL is taught to hold. thats why no one can touch jason white. hopefully texas' improved pass rush can get to him

[the_meanstrosity]

IMTG,

"KSU leads the big 12 in sacks, guy. they are good against the pass"

Please tell me you have looked at KSU's schedule before you made this statement.

Troy State 7 sacks.
McNeese State 3 sacks.
UMass 5 sacks.

When you play teams like that, you are going to pressure the QB.

Historically, KSU is very good against the pass. But guess what, this year they are not. Believe me when I tell you that KSU's defense is soft this season. There have been numerous articles written this season about KSU's defense not having plugged the gaps from last season's departures.

If you don't believe me here are 2 articles which talk about KSU's defensive woes:

http://www.kstatecollegian.com/stories/082903/spo_deflead.shtml

http://www.810whb.com/scripts/archives/getStory.asp?article=6061

I just can't make this any clearer. The KSU defense you are thinking of is in the past. This season's version is not nearly as strong.

[IMetTrentGreen]

i agree. they are still good, though

texas moved the ball pretty easily when vince was in, but turned it over or dropped a pass or something stupid along the way

thats why i think texas loses. they have enough talent to win, just aren't a good enough football team to do so

[the_meanstrosity]

IMTG,

And who's job is it to make Texas a good football team? You've got the players. What's the missing ingredient? That's right...coaching. Believe me, I feel your pain. I had to endure 4 years of a horrid coach.

Yes, KSU still has a good defense. But they are not in the league with OU's defense this year as you suggested. Texas needs to tighten up that O-Line before OU comes to town this weekend.

[Noop]

***Attention***

Texas will win this game.

Florida State might win their game

All streaks will end on Oct. 11



noop

[IMetTrentGreen]

"And who's job is it to make Texas a good football team? You've got the players. What's the missing ingredient? That's right...coaching."

we are a good team. we're just not elite yet. we can beat ou. we can beat anybody on in the country. odds are we won't though, because of your circus in the press box. but we are a good team

"But they are not in the league with OU's defense this year as you suggested"

i didn't say that

and i also didnt say what a good post vic had. nice effort, i think you nailed it, mostly

[the_meanstrosity]

IMTG,

Well you have a lot more patience than me. Maybe I'm jaded from having dealt with a similar coach for 4 years though. Like Brown he hired his buddies to be assistants. But I don't think our coach even had a 1/16th the recruiting ability of Brown and his staff. Ugh...those were horrid years.

[Airhog]

I think texas has a chance if OU takes a wrong turn on the way, and winds up in Austin. Other then that, I look for a good ballgame, but I think OU prevails and wins 35-14

[HornedFrog Purple]

Texas 27 OU 24 Now before you start laughing uncontrollably...

Texas can't stop the run that much is evident, but OU hasn't been able to run the ball effectively either. I don't think what happened last year with OU all of a sudden running like a Switzer team is going to happen this year.

My keys:

How much Jason White has actually improved. I said a while ago the best thing to happen to him was getting hurt as his mobility is now next to nothing. He is forced to throw the ball now and looks better doing it so far. If Texas can get pressure with the front-4 and not be forced to blitz very much, Texas can make some plays in the secondary because White still has scary mental lapses and has gotten away with some near misses thus far.

Where Texas is in trouble is their MLB, someone is going to have to have the game of their career to stop the dinks and dumps White will try to do when there is nothing downfield. Underneath coverage is beyond essential.

Texas shouldn't be able to run much on OU but they have to and not give up. The key to beating OU's defense is avoid their 3rd down nickel and dime packages, thats where they kill teams. So keep it 3rd and reasonable and they have a chance.

There is no doubt in my mind Young should get a majority of the series for Texas. OU's defense will bust up a lot of plays and Young will have to be a difference maker with his feet.

Get Roy Williams the ball... I don't care how you do it, don't use him as a decoy... do it and do it early. Take at least 8 shots down the field.

Finally Coach February if you get beat again, don't blame a 5 mph wind ok? please?

[TroyF]

With the talent Texas has, it shouldn't surprise ANYONE for them to win ANY game.

I like the 'Horns chances in this game, but there are three reasons I don't think they'll win:

1) coaching. OU is better, they make adjustments better.
2) The 'Horns sticking with the run. I don't think they will.
3) Young throwing the ball. Don't get me wrong, I think Young is an absolute stud. He's going to be a terrific QB there. Still, he's a young (no pun intended) QB going against a nasty defense. Odds are, they'll force him into mistakes.

Texas, IMO, needs to start out agressive. As HFP said, throw the ball downfield to Williams. Get caught in a 3rd and 12 at the 50? Send Roy on a deep pattern and throw a jump ball. It's like a punt, you don't lose anything. You give yourself a chance to make great plays. Don't sit back and let OU dictate what they are going to do offensively. I'd have Johnson within 2 yards of the line on almost every play. Don't have him making tackles 7 yards down the field on trap plays (like they did against Arkansas). Get him up to the line and let him destroy a couple of people.

Lastly, if the Texas coaches are SURE they know what's going to happen. . . call timeout and get ready for the surprise. OU loves to set you up. Expect the bomb on third and half a yard. Things like that.

Oh yeah, one last thing that may very well decide the game. . . tell your damned defensive lineman not to jump offsides. OU simply kills people when they do that. I can't even count how many long TD passes OU has thrown the past 4 years when a team jumps offsides. Texas did that a few times against Arkansas. They do it against Oklahoma, it may cost them 7 points.

I think OU wins the game because of the coaching. It'll be a fun one to watch though.

TroyF

[Huckleberry]

The OU coaches have, today, been sending out serious feelers trying to get the accurate scoop on VY's injury. Basically they didn't believe the original spin that VY was fine and would play. They're asking for first-hand info. Ha.

Sounds like the Stoopses made an assumption that he was badly hurt and haven't been prepping for him this week. With this development, my prediction of only a 14 point Texas loss is looking better and better.

[Vegas Vic]

I'll make this short and sweet.

The Red River Shootout is NO place for a freshman quarterback, I don't care how talented he is. There is no amount of practice or advice that can prepare him for the spectacle in the Cotton Bowl. Watch him pucker up on Saturday.

That's all for now.

[Huckleberry]

Yep, just like James Brown did. And Peter Gardere.

Good call.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
Yep, just like James Brown did. And Peter Gardere.

Good call.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Gardere beat an OU team which finished 7-4 his freshmen season? I know Brown beat a 6-6 OU team his freshmen year.

I think this OU team might be a little different, don't you think? I'm not saying Young couldn't explode and win the game with a terrific performence. I just don't think the odds are in his favor. I know McNeal put up one hell of a performence to beat them last year, so it certainly could happen. I just think OU will be ready and will confuse the kid just enough to force him into a couple of mistakes. I think OU will win the turnover battle and win the game.

TroyF

[Huckleberry]

If you've never been to the OU/Texas game, I assure you that the records of the teams does not take away from the atmosphere. Besides, the statement was that the OU/Texas spectacle makes it impossible for a freshman QB to fare well. That is patently false and has been disproven multiple times.

OU will win the game alright. I don't take exception to that prediction. But the prediction that VY will "pucker up" based on the atmosphere is 100% ridiculous.

By the way, that 7-4 team was a good freakin' OU team. Colorado and Nebraska were salty that year. Texas upset them. They lost @ Arizona. A very good team. Easily better than the Texas team of that year by at least the same margin, and in my opinion much more, than this year's OU team is better than this year's Texas team.

[Vegas Vic]

I actually hope V. Young gets most of the snaps. He's a phenomenal athlete, great scrambler, and I'm sure he'll have some long runs. However, when the time comes that he's forced to throw (and mark my words, it will on numerous occasions during the game), he'll be exposed as a below average passer.

Don’t get me wrong – He’s destined to be a great one. I just don’t believe he’s ready for a game of this magnitude – yet.

[Airhog]

I think if young gets most of the snaps, it will be interesting. I dont think the kid has thrown the ball all year long really. This would be his first test, and im not sure how well he will handle the pressure.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
If you've never been to the OU/Texas game, I assure you that the records of the teams does not take away from the atmosphere. Besides, the statement was that the OU/Texas spectacle makes it impossible for a freshman QB to fare well. That is patently false and has been disproven multiple times.

OU will win the game alright. I don't take exception to that prediction. But the prediction that VY will "pucker up" based on the atmosphere is 100% ridiculous.

By the way, that 7-4 team was a good freakin' OU team. Colorado and Nebraska were salty that year. Texas upset them. They lost @ Arizona. A very good team. Easily better than the Texas team of that year by at least the same margin, and in my opinion much more, than this year's OU team is better than this year's Texas team.

I know all about the OU/Texas game. I love rivalries.

You are right, that 7-4 OU team was good. Of course, it had Gibbs coaching them too, so you have to take that into acount.

I don't think VY will pucker up based off of the atmosphere, I think he'll pucker up based on the OU defense.

I think I remember seeing some stat a couple of years ago that in the Miam/FSU games the past decade, a first time starter in the game hadn't won. I could easily see the OU/Texas series having that type of stat the next 10 years. (provided the Texas coaching improves)

TroyF

[Huckleberry]

The one pass VY already throws great is the deep ball. The only change that needs to be made is he needs to be coached to let it go earlier. He's had two long passes this year that looked underthrown, and were, only because he waited too long. They both went over 60 yards in the air.

So VY may pucker up, but I disagree that it will have to do with the OU defense. If he does, it will have to do with both the OU defense and the Texas offense.

[IMetTrentGreen]

the notion that vince young is a bad passer will be disproved fairly quickly

the guy is a great passer who happens to be a phenomenal athlete. once he gets a full fgrip on the offense, look out

reggie mcneal beat ou as a fish, and brad smith came close. texas is a better team that them, and vince is a better qb. i still think ou wins, but vince is our obiw wan, out only hope

[IMetTrentGreen]

is disproved a word?

[vex]

Originally posted by IMetTrentGreen
the notion that vince young is a bad passer will be disproved fairly quickly

the guy is a great passer who happens to be a phenomenal athlete. once he gets a full fgrip on the offense, look out

reggie mcneal beat ou as a fish, and brad smith came close. texas is a better team that them, and vince is a better qb. i still think ou wins, but vince is our obiw wan, out only hope

Seneca Wallace.

[Huckleberry]

The fact that you think Seneca Wallace is on the same level as Vince Young (or Reggie McNeal, for that matter) is comical.

He might have been almost as good as Brad Smith. But I don't think so. Seneca was a good runner that really couldn't throw the ball. Reggie McNeal and Vince Young could outhrow Seneca Wallace using their left hands. And it didn't help Seneca that he was playing with Division III offensive teammates.

Try again.

[HornedFrog Purple]

Robert Brewer.

Obiwan got wacked in the first movie.

[vex]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
The fact that you think Seneca Wallace is on the same level as Vince Young (or Reggie McNeal, for that matter) is comical.

He might have been almost as good as Brad Smith. But I don't think so. Seneca was a good runner that really couldn't throw the ball. Reggie McNeal and Vince Young could outhrow Seneca Wallace using their left hands. And it didn't help Seneca that he was playing with Division III offensive teammates.

Try again.

The fact that you think Vince Young is on the same level that Seneca Wallace was is what's comical. You are honestly going to try to tell me that you think a freshman with 19 career passes is as good as a former Heisman candidate? That's ludicrous.

[digamma]

1. I'll be there. Two OK buddies of mine organized a guy trip about a year ago. Can't wait--I'm leaving for the airport in a couple of hours.

2. This is what makes college football so great. I'm going to a game that I have no allegience to and am so fired up, you wouldn't believe it.

3. Vincent Young hasn't earned the Vince namesake a la Mike Vick yet. He has a lot of potential, but he's played limited minutes. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. He throws the ball a long way, but the bomb that was caught against KSU last week was a 500 ball thrown in back yards across America (albeit not as far as VY's throw). He throws the ball too high. From what I've heard the Texas coaches like the flight of his deep ball, and if that's the case, more power to him and them, but as of now, he puts the ball up for grabs--not to his receivers.

4. I think the game sets up very well for Texas. The expectations are lowered. Oklahoma has been playing lights out. My Sooner buddies are predicting 3 and 4 touchdown victories. I just don't think it will be that easy, but I do think Oklahoma finds a way to win late. Sooners 28-24.

[TroyF]

I have no doubt Vince Young will be able to throw the ball well in the future. I have doubts that he'll be able to throw the ball well NOW.

As great as McNeil played against OU last year, he still finished with around a 53% completion rate for the year. Brad Smith also came in around the 53% mark.

It's funny you should mention Brad Smith IMTG. He's the perfect example of what I'm talking about when it comes to the OU defense. Yeah, he played a great game in the loss. He rushed for 213 yards. Passing the ball, he was 19-39 with 3 INT's. In the final three drives of the game, Smith went 2-9 for 9 yards with 2 INT's. As the season progressed and teams saw more of him, he never had a day close to the one he had against OU. Heck, he even rushed for less than 50 yards against the vauned Colorado defense.

I can easily see the same scenario with Young. He may have a great game. (I don't think he's rushing for over 200 yards though). He'll make some unbelievable individual plays. I don't think he'll do it when it counts. I don't think that is a function of the Texas offense. I think that is a function of his youth. The guy has thrown, what, 19 career passes? Now he gets an OU defense that is getting 2INT's a game? Sorry, I give the advantage to the OU D.

TroyF

[Huckleberry]

Seneca Wallace played well against one good and one really good defense last year. FSU and Iowa. That's it.

He finished with 15 TDs and 18 INTs on the season. 55.1% passing. He finished the season by going 32-of-82 for 323 yards and 4 INTs with 1 TD against Connecticut and Boise State.

He ran for the grand total of 437 yards on the season. He had a QB rating of 119.7, which ranked him 7th in the Big XII. Do I think Vince Young, at this point in his career, could have produced as well with last year's ISU team against last year's ISU schedule? Yes. It's not as far-fetched as you'd like to believe.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
Seneca Wallace played well against one good and one really good defense last year. FSU and Iowa. That's it.

He finished with 15 TDs and 18 INTs on the season. 55.1% passing. He finished the season by going 32-of-82 for 323 yards and 4 INTs with 1 TD against Connecticut and Boise State.

He ran for the grand total of 437 yards on the season. He had a QB rating of 119.7, which ranked him 7th in the Big XII. Do I think Vince Young, at this point in his career, could have produced as well with last year's ISU team against last year's ISU schedule? Yes. It's not as far-fetched as you'd like to believe.

Vince Young is every bit the QB Seneca was as a senior right now. He's certainly a better runner. (outside of the few Seneca scrambles that made highlight reels, he didn't scare everybody nearly as much as his publicity indicated)

Young also has a much better arm than Seneca ever thought of having.

TroyF

[IMetTrentGreen]

i wouldn't be surprised if vince ran for 213 yards, but i would be surprised if he threw 3 int's, simply because i don't see him throwing more than about 10 passes at most anyway, instead of the 40 smtih launched up

also, brad smith, on a scale from 1-10, factoring in everything, is about a 3 when it comes to passing. his teammates are a 5 at best. vince right now is a 7, with points lost for occasionally underthrowing intermediate routes and not having a total grasp of the offense yet, which leads to late throws, which leads to "underthrown" deep balls that travel 60 yards in the air (btw, his two deep balls have both been completed for about 120 yards and a td). his teammates are an 8 (10 for skill, 6 for OL)

comparisions are usually a stupid waste of time, but i think vince comes out on top in that one

the only thing seneca had going for him was his accuracy, especially on the run. against ou last year, that one thing dissapeared. i think he was so intimidated he never got untracked, but it could have just been a bad game

ps- all this is academic anyway, since mock will do squat and get the majority of the snaps anyway

[Huckleberry]

See, Troy, every once in a while you're right.

[IMetTrentGreen]

i just remembered a thrid deep ball on a post to roy williams, which hit him in stride, about 10 inches from being perfect, that roy dropped. it would have been about 60-70 more yards and another td

but he dropped it. kind of a microcosm of texas' program

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
See, Troy, every once in a while you're right.

I know Huck, I'm only right when I agree with you guys, right?

TroyF

[TroyF]

Originally posted by IMetTrentGreen
i just remembered a thrid deep ball on a post to roy williams, which hit him in stride, about 10 inches from being perfect, that roy dropped. it would have been about 60-70 more yards and another td

but he dropped it. kind of a microcosm of texas' program

Wasn't there a defender right there on the play? I thought he would have been tackled had Roy not dropped the pass. It was a damned pretty pass.

TroyF

[Huckleberry]

Now you're starting to get it. Within a couple of years, you'll be a genius.

[Huckleberry]

As for that pass to Roy, it was between two defenders and an excellent pass. But Roy is simply fantastic after the catch when he catches the ball on the run. He's not so good after the catch when he's stationary when the ball gets there.

Which makes our passing offense all the more maddening.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
As for that pass to Roy, it was between two defenders and an excellent pass. But Roy is simply fantastic after the catch when he catches the ball on the run. He's not so good after the catch when he's stationary when the ball gets there.

Which makes our passing offense all the more maddening.

Oh, I know how good Roy is on the run. I just remembered a guy being right there for the tackle, I thought the play might be big in the game because he would have caught the ball in field goal range. I didn't think to myself "sure TD" I'm just going off of memory there, maybe he does score on the play.

As for your offense, I remember screaming about the same things with the Denver Broncos when Elway was QB. Outside of 1987 (when Shanahan was OC and called all of the plays) the Denver offense revolved around curl routes, out routes to the sidelines and circle routes by the running backs. Almost everytime a Denver WR caught the ball, he was stationary. Considering all the Denver WR were smurfs who were good at running after the catch, it was maddening. Not surprisingly, Elway had his best year under Reeves in 1987, when he won the MVP. He didn't start putting up great passing numbers again until Dan hit the road.

TroyF

[IMetTrentGreen]

actually it was in the middle of a double team sandwich, but he would have outrun both guys, according to my primitive memory