NFL Draft Analysis: 1998-2003

[Hammer755]

I came across an article by a writer for a Cleveland Browns site that attempts to rank the draft success by NFL teams over the past six years.

I found it pretty interesting, maybe some others will also.

Six Years of the Draft. Part 1

[Bee]

Must be a mistake...I don't see the Bengals in the top 14...

[Subby]

Thanks Hammer - something to peruse over lunch...

[Syrinx]

Good article!

[sachmo71]

Thanks!

[Swaggs]

Looks interesting.

[Daimyo]

ESPN had a similar article during their draft coverage that gave letter grades for the success over the 5 previous years... I think Indy, Baltimore, and one other team had A grades which seems close to what this says.

Colts used to have terrible draft luck in the early 90's but they've been extremely solid lately... In addition to the players taken from 98-03, they also grabbed Marvin Harrison and Tarik Glenn both in the mid-late 1st.

People thought Rob Morris might was a bust, but he seemed to turn the corner last season with Dungy and now looks very solid.

Wayne is entering his third year at WR which is always the judgement year for that position IMO... time see if he can be a viable compliment to Harrison or another in a string of WR busts for the Colts (Green, Pathon, Ishmael, etc, etc). I think he'll be pretty good... 49/714/4 is pretty solid for a second year WR, especially since he was often the third WR (Harrison put up 73/866/6 in his second season for comparison).

[oykib]

One thing that this article doesn't take into effect is good starters that were taken. The writer give bonus points for All-Pros, but doesn't take off points for lousy starters.

How can the Seahawks rank so high? They haven't made the playoffs in a while. The one year that they did, they got toasted.

[tucker342]

interesting article.

[INDalltheway]

I knew my Colts have had great drafts. Now it is time for those great drafts to formulate into Superbowl victories. Heck I just want an appearance in the big game!

[Noble_Platypus]

Hopefully they sign Peyton long term and have another great draft. You might get your wish soon INDalltheway.

[AgPete]

Cool link. Thanks. I imagine the Cowboys will be one of the worse teams when the second list is released. Jerry Jones really screwed that team up for ten years.

[MIJB#19]

Anyone esle anxiously awaiting the second part of this article?

[Poli]

Yeah, MIJB, I'd like to see the Rams.

[AgPete]

Originally posted by MIJB#19
Anyone esle anxiously awaiting the second part of this article?

LOL Yup!

Just checked it this morning thinking the second part would be up. It says it was updated last Sunday so shouldn't the second one be out by now? I assume there will be a link for the second part on the first section's page?

[MIJB#19]

Bump everybody, part two is here:

http://browns.theinsiders.com/2/114751.html

[revrew]

I can't agree with his ranking system. There has to be more said for the quality of players (granted, that's more subjective) that are "starting". Case in point, the Bears. I'm a bit of a Bear fan, but just because those draft picks are starting doesn't mean they should be. If the Broncos, or Raiders, or Rams, for example, had drafted the players the Bears drafted, those players wouldn't be starting. The only reason they're starting is because the Bears don't do diddly in free agency and the only options they have are the losers they drafted. Seeing the Bears ranked that high just made me laugh.

[MIJB#19]

So the final rankings are as follows?
1. Indianapolis Colts (36 picks, 14 starters, 21 still on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 5 sleepers)
2. San Francisco 49ers (44 picks, 12 starters, 28 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 5 sleepers)
3. Chicago Bears (45 picks, 14 starters, 24 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 3 busts, 5 sleepers)
4. Baltimore Ravens (34 picks, 12 starters, 20 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 0 busts, 3 sleepers)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (45 picks, 10 starters, 25 on team, 4 Pro Bowlers, 3 busts, 3 sleepers)
6. Tennessee Titans (43 picks, 9 starters, 21 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 0 busts, 3 sleepers)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (39 picks, 8 starters, 19 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 2 sleepers)
8. New Orleans Saints (34 picks, 9 starters, 13 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 0 busts, 2 sleepers)
9. Minnesota Vikings (42 picks, 9 starters, 18 on team, 4 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 2 sleepers)
10. Green Bay Packers (44 picks, 10 starters, 21 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 5 sleepers)
11. Washington Redskins (36 picks, 7 starters, 18 on team, 4 Pro Bowlers, 0 busts, 1 sleeper)
12. Buffalo Bills (45 picks, 10 starters, 20 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 2 sleepers)
13. Oakland Raiders (37 picks, 9 starters, 21 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 3 busts, 3 sleepers)
14. Atlanta Falcons (42 picks, 9 starters, 17 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 3 sleepers)
15. Denver Broncos (43 picks, 9 starters, 20 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 3 busts, 4 sleepers)
16. Seattle Seahawks (45 picks, 9 starters, 29 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 2 sleepers)
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (49 picks, 11 starters, 18 on team, 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 2 sleepers)
18. San Diego Chargers (36 picks, 9 starters, 16 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 2 busts, 1 sleeper)
19. Dallas Cowboys (40 picks, 10 starters, 23 on team, 0 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 3 sleepers)
20. St. Louis Rams (39 picks, 9 starters, 18 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 2 busts, 0 sleepers)
21. New England Patriots (44 picks, 5 starters, 16 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 4 busts, 2 sleepers)
22. Cleveland Browns (40 picks, 10 starters, 22 on team, 0 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 2 sleepers)
23. Houston Texans (12 picks, 4 starters, 10 on team, 0 Pro Bowlers, 0 busts, 1 sleeper)
24. Cincinnati Bengals (38 picks, 12 starters, 23 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 4 busts, 1 sleeper)
25. Carolina Panthers (37 picks, 6 starters, 17 on team, 3 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 0 sleepers)
26. Detroit Lions (33 picks, 8 starters, 17 on team, 0 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 1 sleeper)
27. New York Giants (36 picks, 7 starters, 17 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 2 busts, 1 sleeper)
28. New York Jets (38 picks, 7 starters, 16 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 1 bust, 1 sleeper)
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (38 picks, 6 starters, 17 on team, 0 Pro Bowlers, 1 bust, 1 sleeper)
30. Arizona Cardinals (47 picks, 9 starters, 19 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 3 busts, 2 sleepers)
31. Kansas City Chiefs (35 picks, 5 starters, 19 on team, 0 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts, 2 sleepers)
32. Miami Dolphins (38 picks, 6 starters, 13 on team, 1 Pro Bowler, 2 busts, 1 sleeper)

Obviously starters for the Ciefs defense and on the Buccaneers defense don't compare well to eachother, put one has to set a line somewhere, no?
What I personally miss in the rankings is the value of important backups like the #3 wide receiver, backup QB, backup RB, nickelback, 6th offensive lineman, "rotation system" pass rushers.

[mckerney]

He's doing commentary all the way back from '98, but he doesn't even seem to remember last years draft:

As far as this years draft was concerned, I thought the Vikings did very well despite embarrassing themselves by letting the time run out on their 1st round pick AGAIN!

Uh, Cowboys last year buddy.

[vex]

This makes me want to play some Madden now.

[tucker342]

he should have breakin it down more, but it was still a good article...

[NYFAN]

I think these rankings would be a lot more effective, if he was able to somehow incorporate the amount of picks each team had in each round. Teams are built not only through the draft, but players they get for picks.

~Ray

[RawIsDan]

Originally posted by mckerney
Uh, Cowboys last year buddy.

The Cowboys didn't let the clock run out on them last year.

[oykib]

This is a bad list. His numbers are screwy. Have you noticed how many successful teams that he has way down on the list?

A few of us heve made the point that you've got a number of crap teams near the top. Well, with crappy teams it's easier to break into the starting lineup. Also crappy teams pick higher in every round.

You've got the Giants, Jets, Buccs, and Dolphins at 27, 28, 29, and 32, respectively. None of those teams has had major free agent acquisitions over the past few years. All of those teams have either been in the playoffs or within a game of the playoffs every year since he started keeping track. There's a disconnect in there somewhere. If you are not picking up bunches of impact players in free acency, how can you maintain that level of consistent success without successfully using your draft picks?

[mckerney]

Originally posted by RawIsDan
The Cowboys didn't let the clock run out on them last year.

Yes, they did. They worked out a trade with the Chiefs, though it came after the clock ran out. The Vikings got a card in before the trade was in, but the league allowed it and the Chiefs too Ryan Sims. Now there's the truth, so what's your version of what happened?

[RawIsDan]

Originally posted by mckerney
Now there's the truth, so what's your version of what happened?

LOL...Dallas drafted Roy Williams as their #1 pick last year so if they had let the clock run out that probably wouldn't have happened would it ?

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by RawIsDan
LOL...Dallas drafted Roy Williams as their #1 pick last year so if they had let the clock run out that probably wouldn't have happened would it ?

Dallas let the clock run out. The Vikings were the next team up, and couldn't get the card in fast enough to select Ryan Sims. (Or the league let the trade come through late, only they know for sure).

Anyone who watched that draft knows DALLAS had the clock expire on them. The Vikings drew the heat for not jumping in fast enough to get Sims.

[RawIsDan]

How could they pick Williams if the clock ran out ?

[Travis]

Once the clock runs out, the team that had time expire on them can hand in their pick at any time. Only hitch for them is that the next team is also free to hand their pick in, and once they do, the next team down the line and so on.

As was the case this year, the Vikings had the clock run out, then two other teams got their pick in before the Vikings finally made their choice.

Of course the Seahawks still handed their card in nice and quick seeing as how Trufant was still on the board, but they really didn't have to

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by RawIsDan
How could they pick Williams if the clock ran out ?

here was the scenario. The next 3 picks were:

(forgive me if the actual selection numbers are wrong)

5. Dallas
6. Minnesota
7. Kansas City

The time ran out on Dallas while they were finishing a deal with K.C. For about 20 seconds, Minnesota had a chance to jump in and select whatever player they wanted, ahead of Dallas. But, Dallas could pick at any time. Before Minnesota could get their selection in (they wanted Ryan Sims), Dallas finished their trade with K.C., and the Chiefs traded up to the slot ahead of Minnesota to take Ryan Sims.

so now things looked like this:

5. Kansas City - Ryan Sims
6. Minnesota
7. Dallas


Minnesota had no interest in Roy Williams, so they took Bryant McKinnie. With the next selection, Dallas took Williams.

So the clock really ran out on DALLAS, but Minnesota got beat up by the press because they were not ready to hand in a selection and get the player they wanted. They were not prepared for this scenario and blew it. There is some debate as to whether Minnesota actually did get their selection in before Kansas City, but it doesnt matter now since the league gave Ryan Sims to the Chiefs.


That is the story of how the clock ran out on Dallas, and everybody remembered it incorrectly.

[pjstp20]

The reason this ranking system makes no sense is the players in it haven't had a chance to prove themselves. The only players you can truly call sleepers or busts were those taken in the first three years. Those taken in '01-'03, the verdict is still out.

The Dolphins, who were last, drafted 3 pro bowlers that I know of, two later than the 4th round, before 98. If the sample was from 95-00 it would be easier to judge a teams drafting success.

[tucker342]

I completely agree with you

[mckerney]

I was a little disturbed to see he had already branded Derrick Gibson as a bust. In his 2nd year he had 53 tackles, and although he's not pro bowl level yet, that ain't bad for a 2nd year guy, especially playing on the defense that he did