Locker coming back!

[Bigsmooth]

What the heck, this deserves its own thread.

hxxp://www.gohuskies.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/121409aaa.html

Quite a statement made by Locker, taking the Manning route. Ballsy move, but probably the right one for every reason that doesn't rhyme with money.

[Eaglesfan27]

I hope he sticks by that (I want USC to get another shot at beating him), but I think the tempatation to reconsider might be too strong. There are 2 recent reputable mock drafts out there that have him as the #1 QB if he were to come out this year.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I hope he sticks by that (I want USC to get another shot at beating him), but I think the tempatation to reconsider might be too strong. There are 2 recent reputable mock drafts out there that have him as the #1 QB if he were to come out this year.

I'm only disappointed in this because I wanted to see whether those projections were right or my feelings of lower-1st round after Clausen and Bradford would come true. Good news for the Washington, the college game, and whatever team drafts Locker in 2011.

[QuikSand]

Hope it works out for him.

[Logan]

Crazy if he sticks with it. Anybody know anything about his family's financial situation?

[Bigsmooth]

Originally Posted by Logan

Crazy if he sticks with it. Anybody know anything about his family's financial situation?

He's already received a couple hundred thousand to sign with the Angels last year. In fact, he isn't even on scholarship since he isn't an amatuer athlete. Pays his own tuition. Factor in a monster insurance policy and he'll be rich no matter how this plays out.

[path12]

Did not expect this at all but if it sticks I'll be thrilled as a UW fan.

[RainMaker]

It's great for college football but still dumb for him. Basically taking a risk on $20 million in guaranteed cash.

[DeToxRox]

Eh, Locker also has baseball to fall back on. Could be he doesn't know what he wants to do with his professional career yet.

[RainMaker]

I just think with the way the NFL is structured, you'd have to be dumb not to come out and get your huge payday. He's basically going to get at least $20 million and if he can get a top 3 pick secured, much more. I'm sure college can be an amazing experience, but is one more year worth risking all the money? Ask Sam Bradford.

[kcchief19]

Yeah, I hope it works out for him too but given how many big-name players this year had their seasons implode and probably cost them big money I didn't think any marquee players come back for 2010 if they were a first round pick. I think Bradford, McCoy, Tebow, Jermaine Gresham and Dex Bryant to name a few will all probably go lower than if they were in last year's draft.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I just think with the way the NFL is structured, you'd have to be dumb not to come out and get your huge payday. He's basically going to get at least $20 million and if he can get a top 3 pick secured, much more. I'm sure college can be an amazing experience, but is one more year worth risking all the money? Ask Sam Bradford.

I'm sure he'll take some of that $300,000 bonus he got from the Angels and get an very big insurance policy.

Of course, maybe he isn't thrilled with the idea of playing for the Rams or Bucs?

(On a side note, I didn't know his cousin is a safety with Washington State).

[dawgfan]

He's taking a short-term risk, but he could reap a long-term reward. Yeah, as a top-5 pick he stands to make a lot of money. But consider what good young QB's have been getting on their 2nd contracts, and all of a sudden Locker's decision doesn't look so foolhardy.

Everyone acknowledges that he could really use another year of seasoning at the college level to continue learning to be a pro-style QB, so why not do so and increase his chances of long-term success in the NFL? Sure, it's possible he somehow regresses next year, but that's highly unlikely - he has the vast majority of his offense returning and he's clearly been getting more comfortable in Sark's system as the year progressed.

[RainMaker]

I haven't followed the labor talks much, but is there a chance that when he comes out in 2011 that there could be a rookie salary cap a la the NBA?

[Galaxy]

How good is the rest of the team around him? Is Sark doing a good job recruiting in his first full class this year?

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I haven't followed the labor talks much, but is there a chance that when he comes out in 2011 that there could be a rookie salary cap a la the NBA?

Yes, there is a good chance of that happening which is why I think he will change his mind between now and when he has to finalize his decision.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

How good is the rest of the team around him? Is Sark doing a good job recruiting in his first full class this year?

There's a lot of skill talent on offense. The offensive line is still a question mark, but they only lose one starter. Offense ought to be pretty good.

Recruiting is going well. We're currently ranked 7th overall in the country by Scout.com, though that's more to do with volume than quality. By average star rating, we're 4th in the Pac-10 behind USC, Cal & UCLA.

With Jake returning, expectations are going to be for a bowl game next year at minimum.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Yes, there is a good chance of that happening which is why I think he will change his mind between now and when he has to finalize his decision.

I doubt it. It's no secret that there's a lot of uncertainty about the draft and the possibility of a rookie wage scale coming into effect.

Jake isn't hurting for money, nor is his family. And I think he's been influenced by the studies that show a big improvement in the success rate of NFL QB's that come out after their Sr. year rather than their Jr. year.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I doubt it. It's no secret that there's a lot of uncertainty about the draft and the possibility of a rookie wage scale coming into effect.

Jake isn't hurting for money, nor is his family. And I think he's been influenced by the studies that show a big improvement in the success rate of NFL QB's that come out after their Sr. year rather than their Jr. year.

There is uncertainty, but it is also no secret that it is a high priority item for owners. It should be supported by veterans who will get a larger slice of the pie of each team's salary cap. Players won't give into it easy, as it is a bargaining chip, but they almost certainly will give in on it.

[dawgfan]

My point being, I'm sure Jake is aware that the rookie pay scale is likely to change for the 2011 draft to be lower.

Based off of what Sarkisian said in his press conference this afternoon (Jake is still taking finals and will be talking about his decision next week when he's done with them), one of the big motivations for Jake to return is indeed the success rate in the NFL of Jr. QB's vs. Sr. QB's.

Jake has had multiple opportunities to take the money and run, but he's always opted for playing QB at the UW. Yes, he may be giving up money on his first NFL contract. But he doesn't want to be a draft bust - he wants to be a great QB, and returning for another year of coaching at the college level and getting another year of reps in a pro-style offense give him a better chance of long-term NFL success. That is a big part of what is motivating him.

[Lathum]

Awesome news for us. I am really excited to see how we do next year with another year under our belt and a ton of talent coming back at the skill positions.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

And I think he's been influenced by the studies that show a big improvement in the success rate of NFL QB's that come out after their Sr. year rather than their Jr. year.

I've always wondered if this is because of the extra year to prepare or something else. What if it was as simple as giving NFL scouts (as well as opposing college coaches) an extra year to spot flaws in a player's game? Brian Brohm seems like a good example of this.

Also, I wonder if a higher percent of underclassmen are thrown into the fire as they are most likely higher picks (the reason they came out early). I'd be curious to see if the numbers on this were for all rounds or just first rounders.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I've always wondered if this is because of the extra year to prepare or something else. What if it was as simple as giving NFL scouts (as well as opposing college coaches) an extra year to spot flaws in a player's game? Brian Brohm seems like a good example of this.

Also, I wonder if a higher percent of underclassmen are thrown into the fire as they are most likely higher picks (the reason they came out early). I'd be curious to see if the numbers on this were for all rounds or just first rounders.

I think it's mainly to do with gaining more reps and that much more experience reading defenses. When you consider the limits on practice time and number of practices at the college level, staying another year in college can be a pretty significant increase in the amount of experience a QB gets.

[Noop]

He should go to the NFL... never leave money on the table.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Noop

He should go to the NFL... never leave money on the table.

Maybe by staying, he'll increase his long-term NFL success (for the reasons noted), which will increase his long-term earnings. Being a quarterback isn't like a RB, where you should go early if you can due to pounding your body takes.

Also, he seems like a player that really does enjoy playing college football (like Peyton), college in general, and Washington. It sounds like he also wants to get Washington to a successful season (and maybe make a run for the conference title) in his senior season.

[Schmidty]

I don't care about UW at all, but he's from Bellingham, so I think this is pretty cool. He comes around a lot and does stuff in the community. Nice guy.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Maybe by staying, he'll increase his long-term NFL success (for the reasons noted), which will increase his long-term earnings. Being a quarterback isn't like a RB, where you should go early if you can due to pounding your body takes.

Also, he seems like a player that really does enjoy playing college football (like Peyton), college in general, and Washington. It sounds like he also wants to get Washington to a successful season (and maybe make a run for the conference title) in his senior season.

What if he gets hurt next season... What if his stock drops... What if there is a rookie scale... What if he sucks NFL and never sees a second contract... Too many what ifs.... I am sure Huskie fans are happy but I question the decision. Too each his own I guess...

[Crapshoot]

It seems to me that if you're a top 10 pick, you come out - especially with the cap likely next year. The QB coming out this year in the top 10 is guaranteed 30M (Stafford at 1 got 40+); even if he does improve next year, that no is coming down.

[RainMaker]

Not to mention the fact that as a top pick you get a lot more rope as an NFL QB. A 3rd or 4th round pick may never really get a shot.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Yeah, I hope it works out for him too but given how many big-name players this year had their seasons implode and probably cost them big money I didn't think any marquee players come back for 2010 if they were a first round pick. I think Bradford, McCoy, Tebow, Jermaine Gresham and Dez Bryant to name a few will all probably go lower than if they were in last year's draft.

Tebow's the one that really stands out on that list - projections for him have been so varied I don't think anyone can say one way or the other. I'm also not sure Dez Bryant hurt his stock since it wasn't injury that kept him out (unless you think the Raiders would have over drafted him at 7 instead of Heyward-Bey). And Bradford probably still goes top 10, although not the potential #1 overall of last year. On the flip side, Taylor Mays is another one who's stock fell.

Originally Posted by Noop

What if he gets hurt next season... What if his stock drops... What if there is a rookie scale... What if he sucks NFL and never sees a second contract... Too many what ifs.... I am sure Huskie fans are happy but I question the decision. Too each his own I guess...

His family has money, he has money from the baseball contract and a career to fall back on there if his NFL stock drops. The marginal value of the dollars really starts to fall once you're in the area he's in (300k from baseball, probably at least a $2m insurance policy, and the chances to make 10's of millions on his 2nd+ contracts if he's not a bust.)

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

It seems to me that if you're a top 10 pick, you come out - especially with the cap likely next year. The QB coming out this year in the top 10 is guaranteed 30M (Stafford at 1 got 40+); even if he does improve next year, that no is coming down.

That's the only reason why I would want him to come out to answer that question - I don't think he's a top 10 pick this year. Arguing about it here is useless because QB's can be nearly impossible to predict even on draft day (Quinn, Rodgers falling to the 20's) but I just don't think he would have gone top 10. Certainly no guarantee Locker would be there, as only Suh and maybe Gerald McCoy/Berry/Okung are guaranteed that. I'm pretty sure he's fallen behind Clausen in most mocks and I think Bradford would also likely go ahead of him. Ryan Mallett's another one who might go ahead of him if both came out.

[Karlifornia]

Maybe money isn't everything to him though. If that's how he's looking at it, then I say big respect to him. You're only in college once. Go for it, Jake! Have the time of your fucking life being the BMOC!

[Galaxy]

As I said before, I'm sure he'll have a very nice insurance policy for injuries.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

As I said before, I'm sure he'll have a very nice insurance policy for injuries.

Injuries aren't the only thing that can hurt your draft stock. Just ask Taylor Mays.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, Locker, Luck, Foles, Prince, Barkley, Masoli...that's a pretty solid group of Pac 10 QBs coming back next year. And you just know Oregon State's going to put a good one in there, and Cal will probably get a solid one to replace Riley.

[dawgfan]

Riley is a Jr - he'll be back.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

Injuries aren't the only thing that can hurt your draft stock. Just ask Taylor Mays.

Some scouts still think that Mays will go in the top 10. That being said, I agree with your point in general and I wouldn't be surprised if Mays fell further.

[Passacaglia]

Putting aside the chance of injury, I wonder how much his stock can really drop. Sure, he can go out there and *really* stink it up, but what was Washington's record this season? It's not like he needs to win the national championship, or a Heisman, or even the Pac Ten, in order to keep his stock as high as it is now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Putting aside the chance of injury, I wonder how much his stock can really drop. Sure, he can go out there and *really* stink it up, but what was Washington's record this season? It's not like he needs to win the national championship, or a Heisman, or even the Pac Ten, in order to keep his stock as high as it is now.

One response to that: Leinart.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Riley is a Jr - he'll be back.

Man, feels like he's been around forever.

Heh...I actually think Cal would be better if he left. He never struck me as all too special.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

One response to that: Leinart.

My point is that Locker is not at all like Leinart. Leinart won the BCS National Championship and a Heisman before deciding to come back. Locker went 5-7 and won Honorable Mention All Pac 10. If that's all Locker has accomplished so far, how can his stock drop?

[jbergey22]

I hope it works out for him. Personally Id rather being making 7-10 million per year on a bad team than $0 so hopefully Washington can continue their progress as well.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My point is that Locker is not at all like Leinart. Leinart won the BCS National Championship and a Heisman before deciding to come back. Locker went 5-7 and won Honorable Mention All Pac 10. If that's all Locker has accomplished so far, how can his stock drop?

He could get hurt. He could get in problems with the law. He could do what college kids do and get caught at a party doing something that looks bad.

I dont know his character so maybe only 1 of them is a realistic possibility.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

He could get hurt. He could get in problems with the law. He could do what college kids do and get caught at a party doing something that looks bad.

I dont know his character so maybe only 1 of them is a realistic possibility.

Yes. I did say "putting aside the chance of injury" -- I guess I should have specified that I was talking about his performance on the football field only, but I figured that what I said was sufficient to get to my point.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I hope it works out for him. Personally Id rather being making 7-10 million per year on a bad team than $0 so hopefully Washington can continue their progress as well.

Jake grew up in Wa and has wanted to be UW's QB forever. When he was drafted by the Angels he told them they would have to wait. If all he cared about was money he would be playing baseball in in the Angels system right now. He is the kind of id that wants to get the job done and sees a chance to do that. We were 5-7 this year but were right there in all but a few games and I think he sees a chance to finish what he started. Had we gone 2-10 and not had a shot in most games I think maybe he goes pro.

Originally Posted by jbergey22

He could get hurt. He could get in problems with the law. He could do what college kids do and get caught at a party doing something that looks bad.

I dont know his character so maybe only 1 of them is a realistic possibility.

Recent history has told us never say never, but I would be VERY surprised if Jake got in any trouble.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes. I did say "putting aside the chance of injury" -- I guess I should have specified that I was talking about his performance on the football field only, but I figured that what I said was sufficient to get to my point.

Sorry I skimmed through and missed that.

IMO if he was ever wanting to go out when his stock was at his highest this would have been the time. This years QB crop put up some great college numbers but I dont feel any of them would have been drafted higher than Locker.

Waiting until next year I could see that Arkansas QB(Mallet) passing him and you just never know who else will step their game up next year with so many great teams losing thier QBs this year.

Locker seems like a winner and its nice to see a player like that pass up money to try and accomplish his goals every once in awhile so I shouldnt be so critical of his decision.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My point is that Locker is not at all like Leinart. Leinart won the BCS National Championship and a Heisman before deciding to come back. Locker went 5-7 and won Honorable Mention All Pac 10. If that's all Locker has accomplished so far, how can his stock drop?

I don't recall Mel Kiper and his ilk caring too much about that stuff. They're about measurables, potential, upside. Right now, every mock I have seen has Locker in the Top 5, usually the first QB taken, often #1 overall.

There's only one direction from that point.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't recall Mel Kiper and his ilk caring too much about that stuff. They're about measurables, potential, upside. Right now, every mock I have seen has Locker in the Top 5, usually the first QB taken, often #1 overall.

There's only one direction from that point.

The thing is, every evaluator also notes that Jake isn't a finished product yet by a long shot and would be well served to return for another year. Jake's draft projections were all about potential rather than current skill level.

Jake's always had the measurables. What caused his stock to soar this year was evidence that he not only has the measurables, but the capacity to tap into that potential with good coaching and the right system. Scouts were excited to see the notable progress he made this year.

Coming back means he has the chance to show that his development will continue and he can reach his considerable potential. The risk is if his performance doesn't improve next year - all of a sudden, it will look like he's reached a plateau. Thus far, his career has been an upward trajectory, and scouts will want to see that continue.

All indications are that he will indeed continue to improve, and he should be able to put up better numbers next year, and if he does so, he goes from being a top-5 pick based mainly on potential to a #1 overall pick on both ability and performance.

He's taking a risk, no doubt, but it's a calculated one that should improve his chances of succeeding in the NFL and thus making more money long-term.

Jake hasn't ever been motivated primarily about money - for him, it's all about the fun of playing QB, and this path gives him a better chance of having a long, successful career in the NFL which is his highest priority.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

The thing is, every evaluator also notes that Jake isn't a finished product yet by a long shot and would be well served to return for another year. Jake's draft projections were all about potential rather than current skill level.

Jake's always had the measurables. What caused his stock to soar this year was evidence that he not only has the measurables, but the capacity to tap into that potential with good coaching and the right system. Scouts were excited to see the notable progress he made this year.

Coming back means he has the chance to show that his development will continue and he can reach his considerable potential. The risk is if his performance doesn't improve next year - all of a sudden, it will look like he's reached a plateau. Thus far, his career has been an upward trajectory, and scouts will want to see that continue.

All indications are that he will indeed continue to improve, and he should be able to put up better numbers next year, and if he does so, he goes from being a top-5 pick based mainly on potential to a #1 overall pick on both ability and performance.

He's taking a risk, no doubt, but it's a calculated one that should improve his chances of succeeding in the NFL and thus making more money long-term.

Jake hasn't ever been motivated primarily about money - for him, it's all about the fun of playing QB, and this path gives him a better chance of having a long, successful career in the NFL which is his highest priority.

Yeah, I can see the argument for why he's staying; I just don't think it's a smart decision. From what I have seen of professional opinion, he doesn't need to throw even one more pass to be the first quarterback taken in the draft, which will almost certainly be #1 or #2 at worst. He has a lot to lose in this situation, and only a vague promise of dividends well down the line in his professional career if he comes back. And he is likely coming back to a much reduced rookie contract under a new rookie cap structure, even if he maintains his draft level from this year to next.

Look, the college football fan in me says, yeah, good for college football. The pragmatist and businessman in me says, "Damn, what a stupid move."

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, I can see the argument for why he's staying; I just don't think it's a smart decision. From what I have seen of professional opinion, he doesn't need to throw even one more pass to be the first quarterback taken in the draft, which will almost certainly be #1 or #2 at worst. He has a lot to lose in this situation, and only a vague promise of dividends well down the line in his professional career if he comes back. And he is likely coming back to a much reduced rookie contract under a new rookie cap structure, even if he maintains his draft level from this year to next.

Look, the college football fan in me says, yeah, good for college football. The pragmatist and businessman in me says, "Damn, what a stupid move."

It's scary to see myself in such complete agreement with you

Seriously, he would almost certainly get 30-40 million up front if he came out this year. Depending upon how much the PA compromises, he may only get 1/10th of that in his 1st year if he comes out next year. Even if they don't give in that much, he is going to make less next year than he would make this year, even if he improves his draft stock which is hard to do when there are multiple analysts saying he has a legitimate shot to be the #1 player taken overall this year and certainly in the top 10 as multiple teams with bad records need a QB.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Right now, every mock I have seen has Locker in the Top 5, usually the first QB taken, often #1 overall.

Well, you're not looking too hard then since the consensus seemed to be leaning Clausen - http://walterfootball.com/draftdata.php . Locker was the (better version of) Jevan Snead. People love seizing a thing like that and hyping it up, but once the scouts actually started paying close attention and picking apart his flaws he would have fallen drastically. Potential like his would be enough to go #1 many drafts, but not when you have more polished (and high-potential) QB's like Clausen, Bradford and possibly Mallett coming out.