POTUS 2024 - Biden vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

They did a coin flip for first choice, Biden won, and he chose podium positioning over choosing order of final statement. He choose the right podium.

Is that a proven thing, like being on the right side is some sort of sign that you're "right" or is positioning preferred by viewers?

It all traces back to The Price Is Right, man.

[albionmoonlight]

OK, candidates, our next question--worth 50 points--how many unregistered nuclear warheads does the CIA estimate Russia currently possesses?

Write down your guess, and the closest to the actual number without going over wins the 50 points.

[albionmoonlight]

We think we live in unprecedented times, but . . .

http://www.sharynemery.com/booker-t-...-indianapolis/

In 1903, a hotel chambermaid was fired for refusing to make Booker T. Washington’s bed because he was black. And she ended up getting fame and money donations as a right-wing hero.

Other than the lack of Sam Alito finding that she has a constitutional right to not do her job, you could write that story today.

[BYU 14]

The sad part about that, is we supposedly moved past that 50+ years ago, when in fact it has just been dormant with a segment of the population, who now feel empowered to show their hate.

[CrimsonFox]

What if they both passed away before November.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

OK, candidates, our next question--worth 50 points--how many unregistered nuclear warheads does the CIA estimate Russia currently possesses?

Write down your guess, and the closest to the actual number without going over wins the 50 points.

Biden should bid a dollar. The ole Price is Right bid never fails

[GrantDawg]

"What if they both passed away before November"

Interesting thought exercise. It is hard to guess what the Republicans would do, but I lean toward the party wanting to keep it in the family. The Trump people have completely taken over the leadership, amd they would want someone as close to Trump as possible. So, Don Jr., what you get if you order DJT on Wish.
I don't have high hopes on the Dem side either. You have to think the party apparatus just couldn't pass up nominating the first black woman nominees, along with the first gay Vice Presidential nominee. Harris and Mayor Pete ticket.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Ksyrup]

At least I'm not the only one who thinks this is an interesting question. From the Bulwark:

An interesting logistical tidbit, per CBS News:

Mr. Biden’s team won a coin toss, CNN reported, which allowed them to determine either who gets to make the closing argument or where the candidates stand on stage. The president’s team chose his position on the stage, selecting the lectern on the right. That decision tees up Trump to cap the night with closing arguments.

This is strategically fascinating! We might have assumed that getting to close out the night would be a higher strategic priority than stage location—but maybe that’s why we’re journalists and not elite political strategists. Is Biden’s right side just his good side? Or is there some baked-in psychological benefit to manning the right podium? (And is that stage right or house right?)

[Ajaxab]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

At least I'm not the only one who thinks this is an interesting question. From the Bulwark:

Fwiw, social semiotics theory (a visual communication theory) suggests that what we see on the left side of an image we generally perceive to be given and/or familiar, whereas what is on the right side of an image we generally perceive as new and/or unfamiliar. One of the reasons for the theory is that we read left to right. What is left is what we have already passed and what is right is what we have to encounter in a sentence. Maybe the Democrats want people to perceive Biden as new/unfamiliar and Trump as old/familiar.

Whether it works would be another question...

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

At least I'm not the only one who thinks this is an interesting question. From the Bulwark:

I read an article that pointed out that nearly every talk show host's desk is to the right (Graham Norton seems to be the exception) because eyes tend to linger more on that side.

[Swaggs]

I just got back from a vacation yesterday, where I spent about 10 hours going down and 10 more coming back up. I know it is only June, but I was expecting to see a lot more Trump signs (based on past trips through the area) than I did this year. In North Carolina, I saw far more Mark Robinson (GOP governor candidate that is his own type of special, too) signs than Trump. This includes a good stretch of area where there are a lot of active duty and former military. I saw one business with a huge sign about election fraud on one side and Trump 2024 on the other and saw a flag below an American flag, but definitely not what it looked like in previous summers (granted 2020 was Covid, but in 2016 there were also a lot out in the open).

It will be interesting to see if there is a larger "Quiet Trump" voter bloc this time around or if people have just had enough of him and are done.

On our way home, we got redirected in a very rural part of WV and I only saw one Trump sign during a 10-12 mile stretch.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

At least I'm not the only one who thinks this is an interesting question. From the Bulwark:

Maybe they think Trump speaking last, going off the rails with any one of his crazy rants, will stay in the mind of viewers and helps them the most with independents? Where if Joe speaks last the night ends "quietly" and Trumps words are forgotten\minimized?

Trump is more than capable of ignoring any talking points his handlers give him and go off on his own digging a WTF hole. Sure his minions won't be bothered and may love what they hear, but independents?

Maybe Joe has a preplanned jibe he can throw at Trump in his closing hoping to trigger Trump into a off the cuff response?

Just my speculations.

[Swaggs]

Another factor is that the debates are so long and dry, I would imagine that a lot of people tune out by the end, anyway. And the people that don't are probably not swing voters.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ajaxab

Fwiw, social semiotics theory (a visual communication theory) suggests that what we see on the left side of an image we generally perceive to be given and/or familiar, whereas what is on the right side of an image we generally perceive as new and/or unfamiliar. One of the reasons for the theory is that we read left to right. What is left is what we have already passed and what is right is what we have to encounter in a sentence. Maybe the Democrats want people to perceive Biden as new/unfamiliar and Trump as old/familiar.

Whether it works would be another question...

So that suggests stage right, as opposed to right side of the viewing screen, I guess?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

"What if they both passed away before November"

Interesting thought exercise. It is hard to guess what the Republicans would do, but I lean toward the party wanting to keep it in the family. The Trump people have completely taken over the leadership, amd they would want someone as close to Trump as possible. So, Don Jr., what you get if you order DJT on Wish.
I don't have high hopes on the Dem side either. You have to think the party apparatus just couldn't pass up nominating the first black woman nominees, along with the first gay Vice Presidential nominee. Harris and Mayor Pete ticket.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Dems is easy. It'll be Kamala Harris. It's "her turn" after all.

Republicans are tricky. DJT is incredibly dumb and has a coke habit. I don't even think his Dad trusts him to do shit. Eric seems to be the smarter but has the lowest profile. Ivanka would make most sense but she's seen as a moderate among Republicans and is a woman.

I think when Trump is gone, that's it. People will use his name for a long time like they did Reagan but it won't be the same. You can't duplicate that style and charisma. My guess is it would be messy as all hell and they'd compromise on someone like Burgum or Rubio.

[Ksyrup]

There would be a free for all until the GOP establishment saw that Don Jr gets most of the same strong support his dad got, then they'd fall in line behind him and (hopefully) get their asses handed to them.

[Ajaxab]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So that suggests stage right, as opposed to right side of the viewing screen, I guess?

The theory operates from a viewer's point of view. I guess stage right would be different than the viewer's perspective? I'm not sure. I think we'd need JPhillips to tell us if stage right is from the actor's or the audience's perspective.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

There would be a free for all until the GOP establishment saw that Don Jr gets most of the same strong support his dad got, then they'd fall in line behind him and (hopefully) get their asses handed to them.

I really don't think he would get that kind of support. But I might be in the minority who just thinks Trump is a unique figure that you can't replicate.

Don Jr would of course hang around and end up schilling fake gold coins of his Dad and shit, but I think the more people see him talk, the more people would realize he is not his Dad.

[cuervo72]

Well, what would be the mechanism for choosing a candidate? If it's before the convention, would the delegates have to select another candidate? If these were DJT's delegates, they might be apt to support Junior. If it's after the convention, is it just determined by the RNC? And isn't that controlled by Trump's family? I don't know to what extent things will revert to "normal."

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I really don't think he would get that kind of support. But I might be in the minority who just thinks Trump is a unique figure that you can't replicate.

Don Jr would of course hang around and end up schilling fake gold coins of his Dad and shit, but I think the more people see him talk, the more people would realize he is not his Dad.

If we've learned one thing from the Trump phenomenon, it's that politics (and specifically as played out, the GOP over the past 9 years) are a bunch of followers, not leaders. The name of the game is turnout, so they follow motivated voters. Just like after January 6, when a bunch of mainstream GOPers went out on a limb to blame/condemn Trump for his actions/inactions and then pulled it back in a matter of weeks when they saw the pee fly back in their faces, I believe the same thing would happen here.

If we're talking about 2 to 4 years lead-up to an election (say, 2028), then yes, I agree - Don Jr falls by the wayside. But the scenario we're discussing is a 1-4 month timeframe prior to the 2024 election in which Trump dies. His supporters are more likely, IMO, to latch onto Don Jr in that scenario. They expected another 4 to 8 years of Trump in office. His death cuts that off at the knees.

Quite simply, Don Jr is an emotional response and obvious answer to losing their savior and preserves some semblance of a second Trump revenge administration they were promised until God called Trumpus home to the Pearly Gates for whatever higher calling the televangelists cook up. I'm sure there would be multiple avenues to derail him, and maybe they would succeed in the same way the party machine was able to eliminate a guy like Madison Cawthorn, but I think it would be very difficult if a few polls among likely voters in swing states suggested higher turnout/favorability for Don Jr.

[RainMaker]

I could see them nominating him but he would get walloped. I'm just going off how other Trump adjacent politicians have done (Kari Lake, Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker, etc). They like Trump, just not his lackeys.

[Ksyrup]

Right. But he's a Trump, not Trump-adjacent, and in this scenario they have maybe a few weeks to coalesce behind someone they think people will be motivated to vote for.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Well, what would be the mechanism for choosing a candidate? If it's before the convention, would the delegates have to select another candidate? If these were DJT's delegates, they might be apt to support Junior. If it's after the convention, is it just determined by the RNC? And isn't that controlled by Trump's family? I don't know to what extent things will revert to "normal."

It would be decided at convention by the delegates. Don Jr. would have an edge, considering the leadership are all Trumpian considering Eric's wife is the co-chair. They cleaned house of all non-loyalist. My guess is the only challenge would be if Eric wants it, but I think Don Jr. has been more upfront.


As for after the convention, for the RNC makes the selection. They do have an option to reconvene the nominating convention, but don't have to. The DNC just allows the leadership to make the decision outright, though they have to consult Democratic governors first. Most likely the VP candidate would be selected, but it is not mandatory by party rules.


After the election, it would most likely be the VP that becomes President, but there are some legal wranglings that suggest that isn't completely clear-cut. If it were before the Electoral College vote, and enough free electors decide not to vote with their party, it could become a mess.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Right. But he's a Trump, not Trump-adjacent, and in this scenario they have maybe a few weeks to coalesce behind someone they think people will be motivated to vote for.

This. I wouldn't predict Don Jr. as the shoe in candidate to follow his dad in 4 years (or whenever). I don't think he will stand up to the spot-light as well as his dad. His only hope would be his dad campaigning for him, basically. If his dad is not in the picture, or unwilling to expend the energy, then there is a good chance someone might outshine him.


I do think he and/or Eric will try. Then again, it might even be Lara Trump that tries. At one time I thought it would be Ivanka as she was way more popular than either, but I get the feeling she wants none of it.

[Swaggs]

I think post-Trump, in 2028, will be a lot like 2016. There will be some establishment favorites, some peripheral-types that have some appeal, and some oddballs, but if they don't clear the way, it only takes 30-40% to win and then anything can happen in the general election.

WV governors race has worked out this year. They had four front running candidates. One that was a nut job car dealership owner, two that were old fashioned establishment GOPers, and the carpetbagging AG that no one seems to like. The AG won with like 34% of the vote because neither of the establishment guys would drop out.

[RainMaker]

If Democrats passed a law that allowed car manufacturers to sell direct to customers, they'd wipe out like half the GOP mega donors.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think post-Trump, in 2028 ...

If Trump loses (or wins), fair chance he'll still be around in 2028.

Physically, he looks healthy to me ... or maybe it's the contrast with Joe that makes it so.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If Trump loses (or wins), fair chance he'll still be around in 2028.

Physically, he looks healthy to me ... or maybe it's the contrast with Joe that makes it so.

An odd thing to say. Trump is obese and sounds like he has dementia. If my grandpa says the shit he does, straight to a home for him.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

An odd thing to say. Trump is obese and sounds like he has dementia. If my grandpa says the shit he does, straight to a home for him.

It is funny, isn't it? The most exercise Trump gets is swinging at a golf ball and riding a golf cart. Meanwhile, Joe still rides a freaking bike. Could you imagine that fat orange om-pa-lompa riding a bike? Biden is physically in better shape than Trump, and even if he has mentally lost some edge, he started so far ahead of Trump he still laps him. Joe has to slow process every once in awhile, meanwhile Trump has never processed anything a day in his life.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

An odd thing to say. Trump is obese and sounds like he has dementia. If my grandpa says the shit he does, straight to a home for him.

Sorry, I should have said he looks healthier to me than Joe.

Unless a lot of those are fake pics, it looks like he has lost a lot of weight. And he doesn't walk as gingerly (?) as Joe.

re: dementia, that's why I said "physically"

[JPhillips]

Biden has a documented issue with his feet.

But I'd put whatever you want to bet on the proposition that he could ride a bike further than Trump.

[Lathum]

Rapid weight loss isn't always a good sign.

As for if Trump died the GOP would be stupid not to give Haley the nomination. It may piss of MAGA but in this scenario I think a lot of MAGA drops out anyway as this is sport for them and if their team isn't involved they lose interest.

Haley would bring back virtually all the never Trumpers and give independents an off ramp from holding their noses and voting Biden.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I really don't think he would get that kind of support. But I might be in the minority who just thinks Trump is a unique figure that you can't replicate.

.

This is where I am at. There just hasn't been anyone who has come even close to matching the Trump "aura" Guys like DeSantis and Vivek have tried and failed miserably.

[RainMaker]

Trump's future health is going to be like any other 80 year old. Could be fine and chugging away with some slight slowing down or he could fall off a cliff quickly. It's usually not an age you typically age gracefully at. An illness, stroke, cognitive decline can jump up quick.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Rapid weight loss isn't always a good sign.

As for if Trump died the GOP would be stupid not to give Noem the nomination. It may piss of MAGA but in this scenario I think a lot of MAGA drops out anyway as this is sport for them and if their team isn't involved they lose interest.

Noem would bring back virtually all the never Trumpers and give indipendants an off ramp from holding their noses and voting Biden.

The dog killer has no political future. Haley and VR aren't white enough for the base.

At least Gavin Newsome would give the Democratic Party a viable candidate. The GOP has no one.

[RainMaker]

Pritzker or Whitmer are the Dems best hopes for the future. Gavin is too California to get the rust belt voters.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

The dog killer has no political future. Haley and VR aren't white enough for the base.

At least Gavin Newsome would give the Democratic Party a viable candidate. The GOP has no one.

Shit- I meant Haley....fixed that

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Pritzker or Whitmer are the Dems best hopes for the future. Gavin is too California to get the rust belt voters.

I think Shapiro could do well also.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think Shapiro could do well also.

Agree. For some reason I thought he was older but I'm thinking of Evers in Wisconsin.

[Ksyrup]

I also think Andy Beshear from KY is going to at least give it a try. I don't know if he will translate beyond KY, but he's successfully bridged the gap in a red state to comfortably beat Trump's own pick (although it was a black guy, so maybe one bias overrode the other).

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Pritzker or Whitmer are the Dems best hopes for the future. Gavin is too California to get the rust belt voters.

Reps hate Whitmer tho. With a Hillary type of hate. That type of hate seeps into yhe undecideds. Th ey just don't like women in power.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Pritzker or Whitmer are the Dems best hopes for the future. Gavin is too California to get the rust belt voters.

J.D. Vance is a white trash Ohioan turned California venture capitalist. All Gavin needs is a straw hat and some keystone light standing around spewing dog whistle slurs and he'll have a shot. He can go back to CA and go, "how about that Ohio" all while winking.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Biden has a documented issue with his feet.

But I'd put whatever you want to bet on the proposition that he could ride a bike further than Trump.

Hah.

But only fair if we also bet on who wins at golf.

[thesloppy]

I guess it's still believed that enough 'moderates and independents' are grossed out by the gays that Buttigieg isn't considered a viable option? He's a vet, 'business friendly', unlike most Democrats he seems to be great at messaging & debating, and he's a christian white male. You think he'd be a moderate's dream, but...

[Edward64]

I lean towards not liking the Assange plea deal but Joe, did you really have to make that deal now? Would waiting another 5 months been too much?

I don't see how this helps you at all, but I can see how this potentially can hurt you.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I guess it's still believed that enough 'moderates and independents' are grossed out by the gays that Buttigieg isn't considered a viable option? He's a vet, 'business friendly', unlike most Democrats he seems to be great at messaging & debating, and he's a christian white male. You think he'd be a moderate's dream, but...

His opposition is not from moderates, but from liberals and minorities. He hasn't figured out how to appeal to either of those groups, and nobody gets the Dem nomination without the latter group.