Biden's Immigration Reform

[JPhillips]

Background checks are done against a known list of those unable to purchase a gun. Determining citizenship is much more complicated. Again, can you prove citizenship if detained? Most people can't.

In terms of your question above, I also would be fine with everyone getting a unicorn pegasus and that's only slightly less likely to happen than deporting 10 million. The other three items you list are all doable in some sense, but there's no way to deport ten million people. It. Can't. Be. Done. The sooner we recognize that the better.

And 62% won't be supporting the policy when there are detention camps, misidentified people, deaths, rapes, and God knows what other horrors showing up every day on the news year after year after year.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Edward- I get what you are saying but the flaw in your thinking is you assume the GOP, who by far are the loudest voices about this, actually want a fix. They very much do not.

This is a fair pushback.

What I believe is the GOP want a fix. They just don't want the fix the Dems want and vice-versa. I'll quote myself from #152

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Biden's Immigration Reform

Originally Posted by Edward64

It is absolutely fair to say the right wing extremists wanted nothing to do with giving legal status or citizenship to illegals. It is also fair to say the far left wanted nothing to do with a bill that did not legalize the illegals. These are 2 line-in-the-sand stances for the Dem/GOP House.

Or let's put it in another way. If the Dems said let's strip out the legalization of illegals from the Dignity Act, and we'll vote on it in a different bill. I'd predict the Dignity Act will pass quickly.

So there needs to be a grand compromise somehow.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yup, some inconvenience.

I'd think it was communicated why (though a change campaign, see my other notes on change management process) and a process can be created, over 62% would be okay with it, including 53% of Hispanics and 58% of 4 year college educated people.




I mean, anyone can go into a gun store and get a background check done in < 30 minutes. There are going to be hiccups for sure, but the foundation is there.

What exactly do we gain by this? The cost of what you've outlined starts at around $500 billion. When you look at the economic impact, the cost to provide for separated families that are now on welfare, the estimated 1.5% drop in GDP, and any other variables that aren't covered in the initial estimates to just deport 10+ million people what are we gaining in the end?

Under your proposal we're swapping a workforce that's already here and filling jobs for guest workers that come and go to fill the same jobs. Is that honesty worth the pain that every single american would feel?

A path to citizenship, immigration reform, border security, and increasing guest workers as needed accomplishes the same with with far less cost, disruption, and doesn't make us look like Nazi Germany.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Background checks are done against a known list of those unable to purchase a gun. Determining citizenship is much more complicated. Again, can you prove citizenship if detained? Most people can't.

The data for background checks exist somewhere. I have to believe SSN or some sort of identifying "key" in the RDBMS exists somewhere. This "key" can be used to search other databases for the info. Let's start with the W-4 or G-4 or IRS database. People not in that databases(s) needs to be examined further for verification.

It is fair to say there is not one consolidated, accurate database somewhere. But then, one should be created anyway. We don't just want the "brown" people south of the border, we want the visa overstays also. And just so you know that this is not a new opinion from me, I'll quote myself from pg 2.

7) Implement a system that can track all immigrants, guest workers, identified illegals, folks that overstayed their visas etc.

In terms of your question above, I also would be fine with everyone getting a unicorn pegasus and that's only slightly less likely to happen than deporting 10 million. The other three items you list are all doable in some sense, but there's no way to deport ten million people. It. Can't. Be. Done. The sooner we recognize that the better.

Okay. I'll take the 3 out of 4. It's a start.

On the 4th item, there are a lot of smarter people than you and me. Have Joe/Trump set the goal/deliverable, fund it, put people in charge, give them infinite money and let's see what they can do. Maybe consider swapping illegal status for limited/temporary guest worker visa. Almost anything is better than giving illegals pathway to citizenship (other than for DACA or some exceptions).

Again, with the approach of it can't be done, we would never have gone to the moon or countless other things.

And 62% won't be supporting the policy when there are detention camps, misidentified people, deaths, rapes, and God knows what other horrors showing up every day on the news year after year after year.

I assume you mean if Trump wins. Well, lets make sure Joe wins and he makes this a top 3 domestic priority (which he hasn't yet).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

What exactly do we gain by this? The cost of what you've outlined starts at around $500 billion. When you look at the economic impact, the cost to provide for separated families that are now on welfare, the estimated 1.5% drop in GDP, and any other variables that aren't covered in the initial estimates to just deport 10+ million people what are we gaining in the end?

I don't know where you are getting your figures, but let's assume they are true, those nos. are "current state, current assumption" numbers.

I'm saying, set the goal or vision to get it done, hire a bunch of smarter people than you and me, give them a bunch of $ and backing, and let them figure it out.

Under your proposal we're swapping a workforce that's already here and filling jobs for guest workers that come and go to fill the same jobs. Is that honesty worth the pain that every single american would feel?

Continuing to my answer above, the smarter people may say, 100% removal can't be done without causing too much damage to the economy. Or they may say 100% swap-to-guest-worker can't be done. Whatever it is.

But I'm pretty sure they'll move the dial some. Using the 80-20 rule, I'll be happy with 80% done (e.g. don't let perfection get in the way of good enough).

A path to citizenship, immigration reform, border security, and increasing guest workers as needed accomplishes the same with with far less cost, disruption, and doesn't make us look like Nazi Germany.

If pathway to citizenship (and all that it entails with logistics, identification etc.) can be done, then changing illegals to "guest workers" can also be done (for the most part).

I don't see why we need to grant citizenship when temporary/extended guest worker (non-citizenship) can be provided instead.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't know where you are getting your figures, but let's assume they are true, those nos. are "current state, current assumption" numbers.

I'm saying, set the goal or vision to get it done, hire a bunch of smarter people than you and me, give them a bunch of $ and backing, and let them figure it out.


Continuing to my answer above, the smarter people may say, 100% removal can't be done without causing too much damage to the economy. Or they may say 100% swap-to-guest-worker can't be done. Whatever it is.

But I'm pretty sure they'll move the dial some. Using the 80-20 rule, I'll be happy with 80% done (e.g. don't let perfection get in the way of good enough).


If pathway to citizenship (and all that it entails with logistics, identification etc.) can be done, then changing illegals to "guest workers" can also be done (for the most part).

I don't see why we need to grant citizenship when temporary/extended guest worker (non-citizenship) can be provided instead.

The Budgetary and Economic Costs of Addressing Unauthorized Immigration: Alternative Strategies - AAF

I'm going to trust the guy that was director of the CBO's group when it comes to numbers. And their number of $500 billion-ish is a decade old now. So probably close to a trillion now just to start.

Page not found - The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS).

Some more numbers in the link above. We'd suddenly have a $6 billion shortfall in income taxes and we'd lose $12 billion of social security funding annually from people that don't take anything from it.

Also:

In addition, the United States is facing a severe workforce shortage, with workers needed in a variety of industries. Mass deportations would only exacerbate these shortages. Moreover, cumulative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be reduced by 2.6 percent, or nearly $5 trillion over ten years if the 8.1 million undocumented workers were deported. If the undocumented population was legalized, however, the GDP would rise by $1.5 trillion over the next ten years. Finally, the nation’s housing market would be jeopardized because a high percentage of the 1.3 million mortgages held by households with undocumented immigrants would be in peril.

The GDP number here is higher than other numbers I've seen. But on the low end we'd be looking at a 1.5% drop in GDP.


To be honest, your seem to be for this without thinking of the impact and the solution of "get smart people together to figure something out" is on par with wave a magic wand and make things happen. The same with "there has to be a database" and if not then we need one. Knowing that the same people that are largely pushing for this tend to be on the right, how do you think putting their names and information in a federal database is going to go over?

There may be majority support now, but this would become massively unpopular in a hurry as soon as the real cost and impact hit people who shit themselves when gas prices go up a dime.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The cost of what you've outlined starts at around $500 billion.

I think that's on the extreme low end. You're talking hundreds of billions, maybe trillions just to do the enforcement part. The massive loss of GDP, tax revenue, and inflation would be really destructive to the economy.

There's a reason politicians talk about this but don't actually want to do it. It plays well to racists but their donors would kill them.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think that's on the extreme low end. You're talking hundreds of billions, maybe trillions just to do the enforcement part. The massive loss of GDP, tax revenue, and inflation would be really destructive to the economy.

There's a reason politicians talk about this but don't actually want to do it. It plays well to racists but their donors would kill them.

The $500 billion was just the estimated cost to physically remove all illegal immigrants. And as I mentioned, that was a study from a decade ago. Just that part is probably topping a trillion now.

The 10 year cost/impact would be in the several trillions of dollars.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

To be honest, your seem to be for this without thinking of the impact and the solution of "get smart people together to figure something out" is on par with wave a magic wand and make things happen.

This is fair. But here's my rationale.

I've been asked questions and I've answered them. Then there are more "whatabouts" and drilldowns. Let me say this is perfectly fair (I'm guilty of it myself) but I think we can agree that I'll never be able to answer all the questions to everyone's satisfaction.

And I don't claim to have all the detailed answers or solutions. I have the high-level guard rails that I want (but am willing to compromise in with a grand bargain, I believe in compromise).

So yeah, being a consultant myself, it is absolutely normal for big corporations or government entities to identify a problem, send out a competitive RFP, review the responses and select a partner to help solve the problem. They understand trying to solve the problem in-house will be problematic, they need professionals.

I've been there. It's not "waving the magic wand". I know it needs to go through a planning-analysis-design phase to answer all the questions that people here have.

And I do know you can't solve a problem by saying it's impossible to fix/do. There are always options, it may not get to the 100% but there'll be 80% solutions.

In other words, I don’t think you can start with ‘can’t do this because of x, y, z’. It’s start with the agreed on goals and figure out how to do it.

[JPhillips]

We know Venezuela won't take anyone back, so what's the plan? Are we going to go to war to enforce deportation?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We know Venezuela won't take anyone back, so what's the plan? Are we going to go to war to enforce deportation?

Hell I don't even know how we go about proving where everyone is from to get to the deportation stage.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We know Venezuela won't take anyone back, so what's the plan? Are we going to go to war to enforce deportation?

In consulting, a very common refrain when trying to come up with a plan/approach is

Hmmm, can we get creative?

Another "whatabout", see my answer to Atocep immediately above.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The $500 billion was just the estimated cost to physically remove all illegal immigrants. And as I mentioned, that was a study from a decade ago. Just that part is probably topping a trillion now.

The 10 year cost/impact would be in the several trillions of dollars.

Have you thought about the benefits though? You can pay twice as much for your produce and get on a 6-month waiting list to fix a hole in your roof. And think of all the empty buildings you can explore in your neighborhood when businesses can't find enough service workers.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So yeah, being a consultant myself, it is absolutely normal for big corporations or government entities to identify a problem, send out a competitive RFP, review the responses and select a partner to help solve the problem.

We should do the same thing to cure cancer. Just call up some professionals and let them deal with it. Why has no one thought of this?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

We should do the same thing to cure cancer. Just call up some professionals and let them deal with it. Why has no one thought of this?

I think they have called up medical professionals, experts and consultants to help researchers. I mean great progress has been made in the fight against cancer? Or do you think we are still back in the 80sand at a standstill?

BTW I was on the periphery of the IBM Watson AI team working with a medical system on cancer stuff

[RainMaker]

I'm sure with trillions of dollars, someone could figure out the logistics of investigating, arresting, detaining, trying, and deporting millions of people on top of preventing them from coming back. It'd be a massive undertaking, but with enough money, you can likely make it happen.

The issue isn't that we aren't asking "professionals", it's that most experts on the topic have said that doing so would destroy the economy. Price inflation, supply shortages, lack of service workers just to start. The trickle down effects of food shortages and the gutting of the construction industry would be devastating to every American. Not to mention the national security concerns you have with a country unable to provide affordable food or care for its citizens as the national debt skyrockets while the economy and tax revenues shrink.

So it's not a logistics issue as much as there is not enough political capital to push that on to Americans so that you don't have to be burdened hearing a line cook speak Spanish at Chipotle.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So it's not a logistics issue as much as there is not enough political capital to push that on to Americans so that you don't have to be burdened hearing a line cook speak Spanish at Chipotle.

This is the part that always gets me. I get it that right wing media loves to politicize every violent crime committed by a migrant, but can one person here or anywhere claim how illegals have tangibly made their lives worse?

[JonInMiddleGA]

[QUOTE ] so that you don't have to be burdened by the most vile sort of criminal possible at Chipotle.[/quote]

Fixed that utter and complete horseshit you posted for you.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Hell I don't even know how we go about proving where everyone is from to get to the deportation stage.

I guess we just get creative.

[cuervo72]

Does Rwanda have any more room?

/s

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Fixed that utter and complete horseshit you posted for you.

You're voting for a lifelong conman and criminal who just got convicted of 34 felonies with another 70 or so indictments under his belt (not to mention all the civil violations over his criminal career). The law and order schtick isn't going to work.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This is the part that always gets me. I get it that right wing media loves to politicize every violent crime committed by a migrant, but can one person here or anywhere claim how illegals have tangibly made their lives worse?

The irony is that the violent crime rate actually goes up if you were to deport every undocumented immigrant.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I guess we just get creative.

That’s very good. Basic consulting 101. Do a bunch of brainstorming with the team (and others) to come up with ideas to analyze further.

Remember, never approach a problem by saying it’s impossible to fix. There’s always options with differing assumptions, risks, success rate etc. it’s typically a function of time, money, resources and leadership (or in this case, political will)

[JPhillips]

And how many innocent lives you're willing to fuck up in order to win.

[Edward64]

Another good consulting question. You’re getting it now.

Your question needs to be factored into the analysis. One key deliverable from the change management process is something we call ‘change impact analysis’ for positive and negative impacts, and then figuring out how to mitigate/remediate.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

You're voting for a lifelong conman and criminal who just got convicted of 34 felonies with another 70 or so indictments under his belt (not to mention all the civil violations over his criminal career). The law and order schtick isn't going to work.

But it's quite obvious he's in total agreement with the "shithole countries" (and by implication, people) schtick so that's all that matters. Nevermind how disgusting it is to suggest that every non-American born fast food worker is a "vile criminal." Jesus.

[JPhillips]

The GA GOP just based a platform that includes repealing a bunch of laws allowing legal immigration and creating "voluntary" program that will encourage blacks to go back to Africa.

The cruelty is the point and no Rand consultant or blue-ribbon commission is going to make this work.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Another good consulting question. You’re getting it now.

Your question needs to be factored into the analysis. One key deliverable from the change management process is something we call ‘change impact analysis’ for positive and negative impacts, and then figuring out how to mitigate/remediate.

Ben Franklin says hello...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The GA GOP just based a platform that includes repealing a bunch of laws allowing legal immigration and creating "voluntary" program that will encourage blacks to go back to Africa.

The cruelty is the point and no Rand consultant or blue-ribbon commission is going to make this work.

Exactly. Just like child separation.

They have been programmed for decades that brown people are bad and no amount of money, consulting, brainstorming, etc....is going to change that.

You can change policy, you can not change xenophobia and bigotry thats been reinforced over a lifetime.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Nevermind how disgusting it is to suggest that every non-American born fast food worker is a "vile criminal."

I know damned well you can read better than that. And you know damned well you can read better than that, so you should be ashamed of yourself. You wanna go at me, you can find legit opportunities well enough, but don't stoop to this sort of stuff in order to ... what? ingratiate yourself with the worst of the worst FOFC has to offer.

The vile criminal act is illegally violating the sanctity of the border.
And you knew damned well that's what I meant.