Free Agency
My initial plan of action is to pursue DE Jimmy Fox and both starting safeties, and then to look for cheap free agents elsewhere. I balk, though, at DE Fox’s demands, and will wait him out to see if he gets more reasonable. He had a career year last season (suddenly becoming our premiers pass rusher by attrition) and now is trying to cash in on those stats. He is a DE mentor, though, and I’d rather not lose that.
I do decide that LB Clarence Frederick, who isn’t seeking big bucks, merits a new deal. On paper, he ought to be a solid pass rusher, but his 6 sacks last year was a career high. The problem with him is that he has eclipsed DT Willie Oliveira as our defensive front leader for the moment, and we had lost of good things clicking around Willie O. If we bring back Frederick, we have a neutral chemistry up front, which I don’t know if we can afford with such a talent drought. We might actually be better off with a lesser player in there.
I like a number of value free agents, and will queue them up for my offers:
MLB Jonathan Upshaw – underused run stuffer from Cinti, quality reserve/possible starter
S Bennie Luker – good backup plan at safety if we need a starter, solid ballhawker
DE Skip Bromley – pure pass rusher, has played well since he left us two seasons ago
DE Jerome Jaramillo – has been very effective as pass rusher for CHI, good value
My first offer will be to LB Upshaw, but I will probably target DE Jaramillo next. One at a time, we’ll try to pick up all these guys, and go from there.
There are a plethora of quarterbacks in the FA market – I’m highly confident we will find a suitable #2 for this season, but I still plan to look for a project QB in the draft, probably in the middle rounds.
Kirk Weed quickly accepts his contract offer, as Eskridge is sitting on his.
We have a few players with pending offers from other teams: WR Van Harmon (I put up a comparable offer to try to keep him), DT Nate Winters (big money, no way), and DT Zach Bailey (huge money, no way). That’s not so bad – nothing unexpected there.
In week two, S Kenneth Eskridge accepts my offer – which is really the first time I have put forth a truly backloaded deal. He’ll be pretty cap-friendly for about three years, and then he will be an anchor. It’s a done deal – he gets $8m in cash up front to tide him over, which isn’t too bad.
After week three, DT Bailey signs with Pittsburgh, and DT Winters signs with Cincinnati – so both of them will remain in the division. How lovely. LB Upshaw signs with us, and I get to target a new free agent. I go after DE Jerome Jaramillo, whom I see starting for us at the right side pass-rusher slot.
WR Van Harmon accepts the offer from Philadelphia over ours – they offered him a voidable year. So, now I need someone to start at split end, return punts, play as our gunner, and be an all-around solid guy. I should have pressed a bit harder to get Harmon back, it seems.
After week six, DE Jaramillo has signed with us – but we’ve lost LB Regalado and P Creighton to other offers. No huge losses, but I am a shade worried about our pass-rushing contingent. LB Curtis Sinclair, not used much last year, might have to step into a somewhat important role this season, as I’m now seeing him as a very viable option for the pass-rushing reserve roles.
I think I have found my replacement for WR Van Harmon – Stanley Burroughs would become our primary kick and punt returner, he’s a natural split end, and might even be a starter for us. We have to outbid Cincinnati, but they aren’t too serious – I like our chances. It takes three weeks, but we land him. I expect he might be jus fine for our offense, and he looks like he’ll be pretty sturdy, which we can appreciate.
We target C Jeff Rowell – ideally, I’d prefer a guard or tackle, but he is very solid and very cheap. And, as it turns out, very willing to sign. He comes aboard quickly.
LB Allen Upshaw has played for five teams over five seasons, and has yet to register a single QB sack. So, what do we have in mind for him? How about a job as a situational pass rusher? What’s he going to do, say no?
I get almost through the 20 stages still feeling very thin on the defensive line, but we don’t have great options right now. I decide to pick up an insurance policy for the DT position, and take DT Grady Ashford, a journeyman run stopper, who might just have to be a starter for us this season. DE Jimmy Fox is still out there – I’m just waiting for his demands to settle down a bit more, but we expect to bring him back.
2017 Rookie Draft
As we head into the draft, my ideal situation would be to land two potential contributors on the defensive line with our top two picks – but I’m also open to seeing and grabbing a playmaking wide receiver if one falls to our pick at #32 (or near enough to be worth a trade up).
WR Lorenzo Zimmerman looks
very nice – a great fit for us, I suspect. But I don’t see how we can afford to deal up from #32 to #14, where we are as I write. If he falls to about #18 or 20, I think I’ll make an effort to advance and grab him. I push the envelope just a bit too far, and Baltimore takes WR Zimmerman at #20 – just after I click to stop the draft action. Drat!
Defensive tackles go with three of the five picks leading up to us – that really hurt. We end up taking DT Bryce Kaufman from Auburn, and hope that we’re getting a guy who will rise to the same level as Zach Bailey – he’s the same style of player, with good potential as a pass rusher as well as an inside run presence. He may, however, end up being moved outside – as he has the ideal size to play defensive end for us, and we may need him there even more.
I can’t decide from among several decent receivers available at our round two pick, so I stick with the original plan, and grab another defensive lineman. DT Omar Farquhar should develop into a solid inside presence, and will probably let us slide Kaufman to the outside.
Only two of the four receivers I was coveting are taken in round three, so we land a guy who might help us. WR Ted Pendleton is the fastest player left in the draft, and my goal is to groom him for the split end job, if he pans out.
Code:
Amateur Draft Report:
Rnd 1 - Bryce Kauffman, DE, Auburn
Rnd 2 - Omar Farquhar, DT, Virginia
Rnd 3 - Ted Pendleton, WR, Tennessee - Martin
Rnd 4 - Cary Wright, QB, Oregon State
Rnd 5 - John Cole, T, Louisville
Rnd 6 - Pat Haber, S, Oklahoma
Rnd 7 - Devin Albright, DE, Kansas State
QB Cary Wright is the fastest and smartest guy in the QB crop – both things that help separate him from a crop of mediocre signal callers. Project, nonetheless. T John Cole is a very powerful player, strongest lineman available, and he gets along with our OL leader – pretty decent match for a reserve player.
Late Free Agency
Okay, we hit the late staged with all but our first round rookie signed – and that means we have 49 players under contract with one pending, and a full $15 million to spend under our salary cap. In retrospect, I was to stingy with the money this year – I shouldn’t have backloaded the deal with S Kenneth Eskridge, and probably could have afforded to re-sign one more quality player, like maybe DT Zach Bailey. Alas.
DE Jimmy Fox is still thinking big money – and I’m still thinking otherwise. I’m sure we will work it out, but I don’t know for how long a deal – if his sticks to his guns, the best he’ll get from us is one year at about $2.5 million.
In addition to a number of fill-in rookies, I pursue DE Seth Hartman, who is injured badly for this year, but if he can pull through will be a huge steal for next season. Worth the modest risk, I think – he has dropped his demands to just a bit over minsal.
We then pursue an old friend – LB Ricky DiGiacomo. He has been felled by injuries, but looks like he can still play a bit. He’ll be cheap, and might add some veteran leadership to our defensive front – I’m glad to invite him back into the fold for us.
I had planned to wait out QB James Houston and snag him in this process, but New England beats me to the punch, and inks a three-year deal with him.
As expected, we work out a new deal with CB Zach Callens, and I have every intention of starting him again this season. Tough to defend on paper, but his performance year in and year out does the job.
I end up signing DE Jimmy Fox to a one year deal for $2.4 million – about what I had expected it would be. He was stubborn, and missed out on what could have been a multi-year offer. I doubt he will ever have the stats-based bargaining power he did this year, and still nobody met his demands.
And, to my surprise, C Ellis Pond is talking about a new, affordable deal. I’m glad to re-sign him for only $1 million a year, as he has been very effective for us providing needed depth all over the line.
My final decision in the late free agency process, then, is to sign a backup quarterback. There are several guys available, and I have some money to spend, so it won’t be too tough. Mostly a matter of finding the right match. And, you know my inclinations – I like to go with guys I know already. So, since James Houston bolted (ruling out plan A) I go to my second idea – and we sign QB Tyrone Glover to a one year deal. He has spent 4 of his 13 years with us already, and has earned a Superbowl MVP honor playing against us for San Francisco. We’ll bring him back as our insurance policy for starter Deion Brock – and we know that in past years, these “insurance policies” all came into effect, it seems.
Training Camp
With a number of young players being counted on for significant contributions this year (especially our two young DL) this is a critical training camp.
Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp CE FE CE FE ChgC ChgF
Glover, Tyrone 1 QB 14 54 54 54 54 0 0
Brock, Deion 2 QB 5 49 52 52 52 3 0
Hayes, Jeff 18 QB 2 12 40 13 40 1 0
Scott, Jared 13 QB 1 9 38 12 35 3 -3
Wright, Cary 10 QB 1 5 44 7 41 2 -3
Stewart, Gus 39 RB 4 83 83 83 83 0 0
Baker, Joe 36 RB 3 38 50 39 50 1 0
Frederickson, Renaldo 28 RB 2 35 47 37 47 2 0
Aguilera, Danny 30 RB 7 29 29 29 29 0 0
Goodwin, Ian 23 FB 9 40 40 40 40 0 0
Brandon, Dean 45 FB 3 26 60 29 60 3 0
Sellers, Karl 80 TE 2 49 78 54 78 5 0
Chambliss, Todd 85 TE 4 41 50 42 50 1 0
Newsome, Joey 87 FL 6 56 56 56 56 0 0
Tilton, Cornelius 83 FL 5 38 38 38 38 0 0
Garcia, Alex 88 FL 14 30 31 30 31 0 0
Burroughs, Stanley 84 SE 5 42 42 42 42 0 0
Lesky, Omar 32 SE 2 29 46 30 46 1 0
Haass, Austin 81 SE 1 23 35 27 41 4 6
Pendleton, Ted 82 SE 1 23 45 26 46 3 1
Badalyan, Matt 31 SE 2 22 43 24 43 2 0
Nunley, Monty 54 C 7 85 85 85 85 0 0
Pond, Ellis 57 C 7 57 62 57 62 0 0
Rowell, Jeff 51 C 4 40 57 42 57 2 0
Thornton, Mickey 53 LG 7 56 56 56 56 0 0
Wells, Joseph 77 LG 2 19 28 19 28 0 0
Gruber, Lincoln 63 RG 13 44 44 44 44 0 0
Palmer, Nathan 61 RG 1 15 21 16 23 1 2
Heinlein, Bennie 71 LT 13 54 55 54 55 0 0
Cole, John 68 LT 1 18 25 20 27 2 2
Gaines, Cris 75 LT 2 13 30 16 30 3 0
Glaspie, Nathan 78 RT 5 38 38 38 38 0 0
Crain, Mo 15 K 4 97 97 97 97 0 0
**Hartman, Seth 67 LDE 5 65 84 68 84 3 0
Fox, Jimmy 93 LDE 11 47 48 47 48 0 0
Lane, Blake 70 LDE 3 22 30 23 30 1 0
Albright, Devin 74 LDE 1 15 30 16 26 1 -4
Jaramillo, Jerome 95 RDE 4 41 43 44 44 3 1
Eldridge, Wendell 65 RDE 2 26 29 27 29 1 0
Prescott, Wendell 56 RDE 2 14 35 15 35 1 0
Kauffman, Bryce 96 RDE 1 13 54 13 50 0 -4
Brooks, Bucky 73 RDE 1 10 26 11 24 1 -2
**Cascadden, Gary 72 LDT 11 69 69 69 69 0 0
Ashford, Grady 92 LDT 7 40 45 42 45 2 0
Oliveira, Willie 76 LDT 13 40 41 40 41 0 0
Fitzgerald, Shawn 79 RDT 1 15 26 15 25 0 -1
Farquhar, Omar 98 RDT 1 14 48 15 43 1 -5
Blackwell, C.J. 97 MLB 6 62 73 65 73 3 0
Upshaw, Jonathan 50 MLB 7 55 57 59 59 4 2
Davis, Curtis 55 MLB 12 58 58 58 58 0 0
Dodge, Kurt 91 SLB 7 60 60 60 60 0 0
Upshaw, Allen 52 SLB 6 33 49 35 49 2 0
Sinclair, Curtis 94 SLB 4 26 50 30 50 4 0
Stuff, Blake 49 WLB 4 35 44 36 44 1 0
DiGiacomo, Ricky 59 WLB 10 34 34 34 34 0 0
Diaz, Monty 40 LCB 6 50 50 50 50 0 0
Turner, Leland 27 LCB 2 19 46 23 46 4 0
Haber, Pat 48 LCB 1 16 39 17 35 1 -4
Caston, Adam 46 RCB 12 47 47 47 47 0 0
Callens, Zack 34 RCB 14 30 30 30 30 0 0
Foreman, Thurman 26 RCB 2 27 46 29 46 2 0
Raymond, Vernon 42 RCB 1 11 26 13 26 2 0
Weed, Kirk 24 SS 9 55 55 55 55 0 0
Arnold, Jason 47 SS 6 54 54 54 54 0 0
Eskridge, Kenneth 20 FS 6 77 77 77 77 0 0
Well, our defensive linemen both look pretty underwhelming, but we have little choice but to use them right away.
WR Ted Pendleton looks okay, but the big news is undrafted rookie free agent receiver Austin Haass. He had a great camp, leaping forward in the eyes of our scouts, and he gets along great with WR mentor Alex Garcia. Good things might be in store for this young man – he’ll get a pretty serious look. Gaining 6 points of potential in his first camp makes quite an impression.
I’ve got a few trade offers to consider – two of which are real head-scratchers. Seattle (8-8 last year) is offering their 1st round pick next year for MLB C.J. Blackwell. I probably wouldn’t even consider this deal, but Blackwell has a conflict with my defensive front leader, and it’s the worst conflict on the whole team. I also just signed MLB Jonathan Upshaw, who would be a solid starter at MLB for us. Tough decision. I decide that this season is just too important, and I decline the solid offer.
We are also offered a 2nd rounder for WR Joey Newsome – but I decide that he’s still our most polished weapon in the passing game, and despite his injury tendency, we’ll keep him around.
Finally, we get a modest offer – a 5th round pick for WR Matt Badalyan. We can do this one – he might not have made the team anyway.
Season Analysis
Tumult along our defensive line, and we come into this season even weaker there than last year (where this was my top worry). We have an excellent LB corps behind them, and we may need them.
I’m pretty comfortable with the offense – the line is very stable, I am fine with our WR group (though we still lack a true star, I know, I know), and I’m fine with our RB group (would have liked a better #2, but we’ll be okay).
This season, we’d like to see TE Karl Sellers step forward, and put up some numbers. He certainly seems to have the talent. I’m thinking about 600 yards for the season, and 6 TDs – that would please me. On defense, I want to see one of my corners have a good year – Monty Diaz is slated to start again, but I need some better play than he delivered last season.
But overall, I believe it comes down to the defensive front. If we can again stop the run, then we should be in good shape. If we are vulnerable there, I really feel like this team could be a house of cards.
Cohesion remains very high: 83/100(80)/100(75)/100(94) – in the top four in each area. Our roster rating, though, has dropped to a 78 – seventh best, far behind Tennessee and the Jets.
The twice-defending champions have no choice but to be aiming for the top again. We’ll head into the season with a bullseye on our backs, and a tough road ahead, I think.