[SirFozzie]

ESPN actually did a really good job breaking down why this is such a head scratcher

The Falcons made a massive mistake in the first round and have created a mess

The no-question most shocking selection of the first round was the Falcons' pick of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall. And it's not because eighth was a lot sooner than most projections had Penix going.

The reason this pick shocked the NFL was because, just six weeks earlier, the Falcons signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract that includes $100 million in guaranteed money. Dropping the proven Cousins into an offense equipped with young stars at wide receiver, tight end and running back felt like the move of a team intending to contend right away, which would lead a reasonable person to believe that team would use the eighth pick on a player (maybe an edge rusher?) who could help the 2024 roster.

Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, made it clear Thursday night that Cousins was shocked and disappointed by the selection and didn't see it coming. Cousins is the kind of guy who likely will make the best of it, but it still feels like a sudden departure from what the Falcons' plan was six weeks ago. And I think it's fair for Cousins -- and frankly everyone else -- to feel like this could end up being a difficult situation for the Falcons' roster and coaching staff.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Let me be clear right away: The criticism has nothing to do with my, your or the Falcons' evaluation of Penix as a player and prospect. That is irrelevant to this discussion. Penix could turn out to be a star, and frankly, I hope he does. This is about the draft and the Falcons' apparent misunderstanding of its true under-discussed purpose.

In spite of all the time that teams, fans and media spend on scouting the draft, in the end, it is not about scouting. It's about value and resource allocation. In a salary cap league, teams that want to sign and keep their star players as they get more expensive absolutely must get significant contributions from drafted players while they're on their rookie contracts. This is the main reason the Chiefs have continued to win Super Bowls while dishing out huge contracts to Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The Falcons have created a situation in which they cannot possibly get maximum value out of both Cousins' contract and Penix's rookie contract, though.

First off, their combined cash spent on Cousins and Penix in 2024 alone should come out to around $76.8 million when you factor in their respective signing bonuses and salaries. From there, the possible outcomes include the following:

Cousins plays well enough and wins enough to justify the contract the Falcons gave him in free agency. He starts every game in 2024 and 2025. By the end of the 2025 season, Atlanta has paid Cousins $90 million and Penix around $15 million. With only a $10 million 2026 roster bonus left on the guarantees, the Falcons could then release or trade the 37-year-old Cousins and incur a $25 million dead-money charge on their 2026 cap. Penix will be 26 without an NFL start, and the Falcons will get one season to evaluate him as a starter before deciding on his fifth-year option.

Cousins plays the entire 2024 season, but for whatever reason, the Falcons decide next spring that Penix is ready to start in 2025. They could keep Cousins as Penix's backup, but $27.5 million is a lot of money for a backup. Cutting Cousins at this point would result in a $65 million dead-money cap charge. Trading him would cause a $37.5 million dead-money hit. And Atlanta would have paid him $62.5 million for one season.

Cousins gets injured or struggles to come back from his Achilles injury and Penix is thrown into the starter's role after an offseason in which he didn't get starter's reps. This might not be a bad outcome, football-wise, if Penix is pro-ready as his résumé indicates. But if he were to succeed in this situation, it would put the Falcons in a very challenging spot in terms of what to do with Cousins and his contract.

Cousins struggles, leading the fan base (and perhaps the locker room) to want to see the high draft pick play. Whatever the coaching staff decides in this scenario is tough on both of these players (and perhaps, again, the locker room).

Penix could turn out to be great, but that's not the point. The Falcons mismanaged their resources. There's no way for them to get maximum value from both Cousins' deal and Penix's rookie deal. As a result, their roster won't be as good in the coming years as it could have been -- no matter how well or how much either one of them plays.