We carry over one trade "allowance" from last year that we didn't use (rules refresher - we can only carry over one, even if there's more than one left. In this case, there was just one left) but let's take a look at what kind of RNG luck we have for this season:
Hint: the luck is not with us. We "roll" a 1 and a 0. That means we'll head into this offseason with one free agent signing of a 45+ rated player allowed, and one trade (from the one we carried over).
That's...not great. We could really use a few free agents to start building up the major league talent. But it's what we've got.
Obviously...let me say it again...obviously, we really need help on offense, so I think this free agent signing is going to have to be a bat of some kind. Maybe we can find a 1B who can mash in the bargain bin. The only real place of "depth" we have is in the bullpen, and I don't think that's going to net us back a hitter worth too much.
We officially enter the offseason and I'll add one quick note here as another rule I think I forgot to mention. If we re-sign any of our pre-arb or arb players to a multi-year deal, that counts against our free agent allowance. Same thing for any pending free agents, for now. Agreeing to a deal to avoid arbitration does not count against us.
Speaking of arbitration, we have eight players eligible. I won't go too in-depth here yet as my whole team is basically going to be a revolving door for a couple years, but we avoid arbitration with our three of our four position players, all outfielders, and non-tender the other. I'd like to find a power hitter who can be our 4th or 5th outfielder, maybe even one who's relatively low-rated that doesn't count against our allowance.
SP Juan Garcia, who is in first year of arbitration eligibility, actually had a fantastic year. I said this about him when we took him:
Quote:
I go back-to-back SP with our next pick, adding Juan Garcia, 24. He's a side-arming lefty that may end up in the pen but has four great pitches and elite stuff that'll just get better in the pen. We'll let him have his shot in a starting role to kick things off, and he's under team control for four years.
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He ended up starting 25 games, and finished with a 2.82 ERA. As expected the walk numbers were a little high, but he struck out over 31% of hitters. We agree with him and the other three pitchers, as well.
There's a potential trade I'm considering to add some juice to our lineup but it does come with some caveats. RP Steve Antill had a great year in our bullpen (2.79 ERA) but his SIERA makes me think he's due for some regression. K% was a little light as well, and he's 34 with $10M owed to him in '13.
There's a bat available from the Philadelphia Patriots, 1B David Casey, who is 29 and just finished a 35 HR campaign. The walk rate is light but all-in-all he had a 114 wRC+ and I feel like that would be very helpful for us. The downside? He's due $31M per year for the next four years.
We do some negotiating and end up making this deal. Philly will eat 10% of the salary moving forward and we added a throw-in all-defense SS to seal the deal.
New allowances:
1 FA
0 Trades
Our owner wants to see about $20M in profit this year. Right now to achieve that it looks like we only have about $8M to work with. We can flex up a bit if we can get the right player, but I don't want to give the owner a reason to fire me.
3B is our ideal target - 3B Matt Cooper's 70 wRC+ is the real weak link as far as full-time players go and there's nothing internal that's any more exciting.
I will take this opportunity to highlight an available free agent, 3B Brad Linderman. This guy is 38 years old, slashed .326/.406/.488 last season and had 75 stolen bases to go with it! He's looking for a 5-year, $182M deal. At that age I'm curious if teams will go for it, and also wondering if they don't, how low the price will go if we wait it out?
The next best 3B available is 37 years old himself, and coming off a labrum surgery.
We decide to slow play the market and see if anything shakes out with Linderman, but the New York Knights swoop in and offer him a higher AAV over two years - $30.5M per year, with a "games played" vesting option for the third year. Good for you, old man.
Taking a deeper look, the guy we picked up at the deadline last year, OF Mario Aragon, is certainly better as a corner OF but could play 3B if we went out used our free agent signing on an OF...hmmm.
Our outfield is pretty RHB heavy, so we go out on the market and look for a LHB OF. We find a guy we like, OF Alex Toler, a lefty bat who destroyed RHP, but he gets signed by Baltimore as we waited for his price to come down a bit.
We do have a back up plan in OF Cortez Moralez. He's not quite the power threat that Toler was, but did have 18 HR in the prior season. His calling card is his eye, and has the highest grade in that area from our scout.
We make him an offer of $25M over three years, the final of which is a team option. He signs in the middle of January, and that's all we're allowed to do. No more transactions (outside of 40 or below rated players) this year. Yikes. International FA starts now as well (need to get used to that) and we miss out and most of the high-end targets. We add some lower-level depth and one decent OF, but nothing worth mentioning, really.
But then some good news - we ended up with the #1 pick in the draft lottery. Just taking a very quick look at the draft pool, there's a very solid-looking college SP, Danny Gonzales, available. He's a groundball pitcher who generates weak contact with 7 movement, but is also a 6 stuff and control to go with it. A lefty, as well, so I am definitely thinking about him for the top spot.
Additionally, there's CF Tom Moore, a high-school bat that'll need to move to a corner but has 6's across the board and speed to go with it.
1B Mark Parent looks like a future slugger, with 7 contact and 7 power, but the swing and miss is an issue (rated 3 in Avoid K's) and the personality is a little concerning.
3B Gordie Warren and 3B Andy Stoner, a college and high-school bat, respectively, are also available. But our pick of 3B Steve Bell makes me at least hesitate to take another corner infielder. That said, Bell does have the risk of needing to move to 1B, and Warren looks like more of a definitive 3B.
Finally, last but not least, OF Chris Shaker could stay in CF but would be an absolutely elite corner OF. The eye is a 4 so there's something to be desired there, but a 7 contact and 6 power could easily make up for the lack of discipline.
That wraps up our off-season. We get through spring training with an 8-17 record and cut down to 26 with relative ease.