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Originally Posted by Klinglerware
Peak oil is an interesting and alarming idea--it's an extreme prediction, but if true, terrorism will be the least of our problems as much of our civilization would fail without petroleum or petroleum-based products. Again, a worst-case prediction, but it is a wake-up call that we better get the timing of the transation away from fossil fuels just right, or there will be chaos.
Also, if true, the Middle East won't matter to the west in 75-100 years. However, the implication for the next 50 years is that there will be a scarcity of resources that will not make cooperation with our economic rivals very easy. Conflict with ascendant powers such as China is beginning to happen now--witness China's attempts to secure oil resources to fuel it's economic development and the outcry caused by CNOOC's bid for UNOCAL last year.
I tend to think that the next large war, if it were to happen, would be over competition for natural resources and not ideology. In fact, I have heard some analysts say that the next war in the middle east would not be over religion or oil, but a tip in the balance regarding rights over scarce water supplies.
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Peak oil may not be as extreme an idea as you might think. I myself had a hard time getting used to the numbers used in the book so I've been doing some searching on the internet. Wikipedia and other sites with information regarding oil, natural gas, and coal reserves. Even the highest estimates I could find for oil reserves allows about 40 years assuming no growth in demand. China's demand for oil is growing at a very fast clip, upwards of 40% increase per year now. Even if every other nation in the world could level off consumption, with China's voracious appetite growing as it is, there is only enough oil reserves to last a decade or two.
Once again, with oil becoming such a scarce commodity, and the Middle East having two-thirds of the world's estimated reserves, and the West's and now China's appetite for oil increasing, I see no resolution to the West/Islam clash.