[Arles]

I've always loved this thread, but I have a legit question. I haven't really looked at the numbers and am assuming I'm not counting - but I've always been fascinated with the 16 v 10 decision.

On first glance, the most common result would be a 16 vs a 20 - in which case only one card will get you the win (5). The dealer can't have an Ace (or he would have had blackjack). So, here's the total set of options. Since most people don't hit after 17, I'm not counting a situation where you get an Ace and then hit to get a 4.

1. 16 vs. 20: only a 4 or 5 helps, almost certain loser.
2. 16 vs. 19: 3, 4 or 5 helps, still long odds.
3. 16 vs. 18: 2-5 helps, slightly better chance.
4. 16 vs. 17: A-5 helps, certainly worth taking a card here.
5-9. 16 vs 12-16: dealer has a decent to high chance of busting.

Again, without looking at the actual data (which I think it close to 50-50), it always feels like staying on 16 vs a 10 is a solid play. Out of the 9 potential situations, 5 involve a better chance on staying. The most common (20) gives you a very slim chance of winning with a hit. So, if you hit, you are really banking on situations 17-19 and getting a small card - again long odds. Now, the dealer could get the same small card you need if he has a 12-16 - in which case stay would be worse even if he pulls a 14. Just curious on what you guys think?