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Originally Posted by Craptacular
According to the latest NHC discussion, there are some data sources that are showing slightly lower winds. Also, there are signs of eyewall replacement, where the area of storms immediately outside the eyewall contracts, and basically sucks the moisture out of the inner eyewall. The hurricane is usually weakening during the replacement. HOWEVER, once the outer eyewall completely replaces the inner eyewall and contracts, the storm is often as strong (or even stronger) than it was beforehand. This happened in Andrew, and the storm stengthened right at landfall. If the eyewall in Katrina is replaced, the question is, how long will it take? It could really suck if it completes the cycle right before landfall.
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This would be the grimmest of scenarios, but given the amount of time left before landfall, I don't think there's enough time for Katrina to replace the eyewall. At worst, she'll keep present strength or perhaps reach 165, but typically storms do weaken a little before landfall, particularly in the Gulf. I think it's more likely she'll back down to 155 or even 150, though. Then again at this sort of strength, we're talking "many houses and other structures damaged or destroyed", rather than "most houses and other structures damaged or destroyed". It just ain't gonna make much difference.