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They're kinda guessing at the intensity because Katrina isn't fitting the model they normally use. I imagine they'll get better info overnight to firm up whether she is indeed weakening in any meaningful way. They have for the moment dropped her to a very powerful Cat 4 at landfall, scheduled for just after 8 AM EDT (7 PM CDT) tomorrow morning.
Unfortunately, the latest track is putting Katrina on a course to do the worst lakeside flooding from Pontchartrain into New Orleans, which is a path just east of the city. Gulf water will be forced into the lake and then as Katrina moves past, the wind will drive lake water into the city. There's a lot more water in the lake than the Mississippi. I don't know how devastating it'll be (I have to hope that the news is exaggerating somewhat to get eyeballs watching), but this will not be a pretty sight come Tuesday when the storm is finally out of the area and they can get up in the air to see what's left.
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