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Originally Posted by GoldenEagle
A few things:
!) The water temperature here I think is critical. If it is warm it will continue strengthen. I think it lost a little organization but the water is warm enough it will it will get back organized.
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The water temperatures are near or above 90 degrees F. There is little in the upper levels available to disturb the hurricane. In actuallity this is one of the best organized storms I can remember. It's just rare for a storm to maintain such a high wind speed. In actuality even though the storm's wind speeds are lower, the circulation itself is more potent as evidenced by the extremely low pressure.
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Originally Posted by GoldenEagle
2) The winds have to stay below 200 MPH. At this time, it does not look like it will do that. The Superdome, which will have nearly 100,000 people in it, can take winds up to 200 MPH. Anything more than that could cause a huge number of casualties.
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This is highly likely IMO. The system is so large it's unlikely that it will have sustained winds above 200 MPH. However, it would not be surprising for there to be a few gusts over 200, particularly several stories above street level.
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Originally Posted by GoldenEagle
3) In my brief experience watching these storms, one they get to a certain point, they pretty much bare down and do not change direction. I think the land probably prevents it from changing but I am no expert. It is getting very close to that point.
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The upper level steering is likely to have the storm bear down. But there is nothing inherent to hurricanes or the land that prevents it from turning. There have been storms that make sudden 90 degree turns (think Charley last year). Hurricanes more or less are stuck going in whatever direction the prevailing upper winds blow.
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Originally Posted by GoldenEagle
4) Camille went straight up the Mississippi River and did not change directions. It also sent the water in the Mississippi the other direction (it moved north). This has so many of the same characteristics of Camille and I think it will be very similar. IF it goes up the river, it will maintain some its strengthen and be a hurricane all the way to Memphis.
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Following the river would not in and of itself extend the lenght of time that the storm maintains hurricane strength. The friction of the land tends to tear the circulation apart. The bigger determinant is a) the strength the hurricane hits with (the stronger it is the longer to weaken) and b) the speed it is moving (the faster it is, the further inland it can maintain hurricane strength).
Current forecasts take it through Jackson, Mississippi, as a tropical storm before weakening to a depression in Tennessee and the Ohio Valley.