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Honolulu Blue · 07-05-2005, 03:54 PM

There are lots of prop bets for the WSOP Main Event at the online sin bins. This post is going to get a bit long, so if you want to hit the page down key to get to more dissing of my girl Tilly, I'll understand. For the rest of you, here are some of the highlights:

* Most everywhere you can bet on your favorite to win the whole thing. As expected, the bookies aren't offering the best odds - mostly between 200-1 and 1000-1. If you knew your favorite pro had cut a deal with Harrah's, you might be able to take 1000-1, or even 200-1. Otherwise they're sucker plays.

* A little better are the final table odds. Here the range is generally between 25-1 and 200-1. Shop around because they can vary a lot from book to book. I found Humberto at 150-1 at Stan James, which is almost playable.

* Better still are the in the money odds, which I only found at Stan James. Jesus and Negreanu are at 9-4, along with a few others. Five others are at 5-2. About 100 mostly familiar names are at 3-1, including Dan Harrington, who would be worth a flyer at that price. No, I don't think he's going to make the final table again. The rest of the familiar names are at 4-1, 5-1, and 6-1. Considering that about 10% of the field should cash (9-1 odds), getting 3-1 or so on a world-class pro isn't that bad. It's not, of course, the world-changing score a 500-1 flyer would be.

* The only prop bet I'll repeat in its entirety came from BetRoyal. This is the rank of the final hand:

- Pair +200
- 3 of a kind +300
- 2 pair +450
- Full house +600
- Straight +700
- Flush +900
- High Card +1200
- 4 of a kind +7500
- Straight flush +15000
- Royal flush +25000

In my opinion, the 2 pair hand is the best bet here. The straight & royal flushes are obviously bad bets. Trips & the full house are a bit overrated.

* Bodog has a bunch of head-to-head matchups as to who will finish better. You're giving about 8% to make these bets, but considering the odds on the other WSOP bets, that's pretty good. Here's a few that I thought were good enough to spotlight with some commentary that's worth about what you paid for it:

- Josh Arieh (Even) over Erick Lindgren - Arieh may be a jerk, but he's a jerk who can play. I assume Mr. Lindgren can play a little too; don't know a lot about him.
- Clonie Gowen (Even) over Annie Duke - Annie's pretty good, but I think she's wildly overrated. You'll see a lot of these bets where I took a stand on players who are a little to a lot better values.
- TJ Cloutier (-120) over Todd Brunson - I think Todd would rather be at the cash games, though he's had some good results so far.
- Scott Fischman (-140) over Dutch Boyd - Dutch might be The Crew's founding father, but we know who its real star is.
- Arieh (-120) over David Williams - Williams seems nice enough, but I think another early bustout is in his future.
- Daniel Negreanu (-130) over Duke - Negreanu is at or near the favorite list on nearly every bet you can make. Hasn't done much so far, but I think he'll do good things starting Thursday.
- Howard Lederer (-120) over Duke - I still think The Professor is better than his most famous student.
- Cyndy Violette (-120) over Clonie Gowen - Violette's been sizzling over the past month, and I expect it to continue in the Main Event.
- Chip Reese (-120) over Greg Raymer - Raymer's luck has to run out sooner or later. My pick is sooner.
- Chris Moneymaker (-120) over Robert Varkonyi - The 2003 champion hasn't done much since then, but the 2002 champ has done very, very little.
- Antonio Esfandiari (-120) over D. Williams
- Mike Matusow (-105) over Raymer - I'd take the devil himself if the odds were right.
- Jennifer Harman (Even) over Duke
- Phil Hellmuth (-120) over Duke - This is the best bet I found. It's almost a mortgage-the-house lock, but (a) I can't tell you that, since this is for entertainment purposes only, and (b) poker is a funny game that sometimes rewards the weaker over the stronger.

CYA DISCLAIMER: Bets researched as of yesterday afternoon; lines may have changed in the meantime. And mentioning of any online book is neither an endorsmeent or a statement of its legal status.

07-05-2005, 03:54 PM	#29
Honolulu Blue Dynasty Boy Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Michigan	There are lots of prop bets for the WSOP Main Event at the online sin bins. This post is going to get a bit long, so if you want to hit the page down key to get to more dissing of my girl Tilly, I'll understand. For the rest of you, here are some of the highlights: * Most everywhere you can bet on your favorite to win the whole thing. As expected, the bookies aren't offering the best odds - mostly between 200-1 and 1000-1. If you knew your favorite pro had cut a deal with Harrah's, you might be able to take 1000-1, or even 200-1. Otherwise they're sucker plays. * A little better are the final table odds. Here the range is generally between 25-1 and 200-1. Shop around because they can vary a lot from book to book. I found Humberto at 150-1 at Stan James, which is almost playable. * Better still are the in the money odds, which I only found at Stan James. Jesus and Negreanu are at 9-4, along with a few others. Five others are at 5-2. About 100 mostly familiar names are at 3-1, including Dan Harrington, who would be worth a flyer at that price. No, I don't think he's going to make the final table again. The rest of the familiar names are at 4-1, 5-1, and 6-1. Considering that about 10% of the field should cash (9-1 odds), getting 3-1 or so on a world-class pro isn't that bad. It's not, of course, the world-changing score a 500-1 flyer would be. * The only prop bet I'll repeat in its entirety came from BetRoyal. This is the rank of the final hand: - Pair +200 - 3 of a kind +300 - 2 pair +450 - Full house +600 - Straight +700 - Flush +900 - High Card +1200 - 4 of a kind +7500 - Straight flush +15000 - Royal flush +25000 In my opinion, the 2 pair hand is the best bet here. The straight & royal flushes are obviously bad bets. Trips & the full house are a bit overrated. * Bodog has a bunch of head-to-head matchups as to who will finish better. You're giving about 8% to make these bets, but considering the odds on the other WSOP bets, that's pretty good. Here's a few that I thought were good enough to spotlight with some commentary that's worth about what you paid for it: - Josh Arieh (Even) over Erick Lindgren - Arieh may be a jerk, but he's a jerk who can play. I assume Mr. Lindgren can play a little too; don't know a lot about him. - Clonie Gowen (Even) over Annie Duke - Annie's pretty good, but I think she's wildly overrated. You'll see a lot of these bets where I took a stand on players who are a little to a lot better values. - TJ Cloutier (-120) over Todd Brunson - I think Todd would rather be at the cash games, though he's had some good results so far. - Scott Fischman (-140) over Dutch Boyd - Dutch might be The Crew's founding father, but we know who its real star is. - Arieh (-120) over David Williams - Williams seems nice enough, but I think another early bustout is in his future. - Daniel Negreanu (-130) over Duke - Negreanu is at or near the favorite list on nearly every bet you can make. Hasn't done much so far, but I think he'll do good things starting Thursday. - Howard Lederer (-120) over Duke - I still think The Professor is better than his most famous student. - Cyndy Violette (-120) over Clonie Gowen - Violette's been sizzling over the past month, and I expect it to continue in the Main Event. - Chip Reese (-120) over Greg Raymer - Raymer's luck has to run out sooner or later. My pick is sooner. - Chris Moneymaker (-120) over Robert Varkonyi - The 2003 champion hasn't done much since then, but the 2002 champ has done very, very little. - Antonio Esfandiari (-120) over D. Williams - Mike Matusow (-105) over Raymer - I'd take the devil himself if the odds were right. - Jennifer Harman (Even) over Duke - Phil Hellmuth (-120) over Duke - This is the best bet I found. It's almost a mortgage-the-house lock, but (a) I can't tell you that, since this is for entertainment purposes only, and (b) poker is a funny game that sometimes rewards the weaker over the stronger. CYA DISCLAIMER: Bets researched as of yesterday afternoon; lines may have changed in the meantime. And mentioning of any online book is neither an endorsmeent or a statement of its legal status.