https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-...-changing.html
Along with weighting, pollsters are paying more attention to survey respondents they used to discount.
“Some people will start a poll, they’ll tell you who they’re going to vote for and then they say, ‘I’m done. I don’t want to talk to you anymore. Goodbye,’” Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, which helps conduct polls for the New York Times, told CNBC. “In 2020 and 2022, we didn’t count those people.”
But this time around, Levy says they are counting the “drop-offs.”
They found that if they had counted those impatient respondents in 2020 and 2022, their poll results would have moved “about a point and a quarter in the Trump direction,” Levy said, eliminating roughly 40% of their error.
Levy added that SCRI is also taking an extra step to target Trump voters by modeling their sample to include a higher survey quota for people who are considered “high-probability Trump voters in rural areas.”
“If you think of them as M&Ms, let’s say the Trump M&M vote is red,” Levy said. “We have a few extra red M&Ms in the jar.”
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Seems like whatever you thought of previous polling accuracy doesn't even matter, because they've attempted to course-correct this election and these 2024 presidential polls don't necessarily correspond to previous polling methods (or even to any other election's polls).
The folks who fucked up the math in 2016 and 2020, have done some reactionary math, the results of which are entirely out-of-whack with down-ballot polling? Why
shouldn't I question that?