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Originally Posted by Lathum
Arizona just outlawed abortion through a law that’s 150 years old. I think that drives the young vote and independent women. Trump has also had to have lost some of his 2020 voters through attrition and because of 1/6. Also who are the people that voted Biden in 2020 and are going Trump now. Some people may sit it out but I have to believe when the runner meets the road they will come out and vote against Trump again.
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That law is in place while Biden is President. So it's not like he has much power to change it nor interest in doing anything to help. But I think the issue is that he barely won the state last time and the demographics are shifting away from him.
As for your question about who is shifting from Biden to Trump, Hispanics. Nevada and Arizona especially. Young voters have shifted too and I'm guessing many will just sit this election out.
You're talking about states that were incredibly close in 2020. I don't think there's been a single poll with Biden ahead in Arizona in some time. And a lot of them aren't particularly close.