Going back to the first page, you have to get to Tier 6, 11 QBs deep (and that didn't include Rodgers), before you get to a QB not on the team that drafted him, which sort of supports the idea of gambling wildly in the draft.
Quote:
Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
Tier 1: Brady-esque ability to win regardless of how much his team handicaps him, excels at finding the best plays against the defense and winning consistently without needing to blow other teams away: Mahomes
Tier 2: Peyton Manning-esque ability to take over games and bully opposing teams into submission, while also, like Manning, curiously coming undone against specific defenses or running out of steam when the rest of his team can't hold up their end of the bargain: Allen, Jackson
Tier 3: Could be Tier 1 or 2 but two seasons with ill-timed injuries contribute to a small sample size: Burrow
Tier 4: Probably going to be Tier 1 or Tier 2 but we don't know yet because either a) they've had less than a season or b) they've been playing for the Chargers or c) whatever they hell we think has gone on with Jacksonville: Herbert, Love, Stroud, Richardson, Lawrence
Tier 5: Really good with key offensive weapons: Hurts, Prescott
Tier 6: Really good with key offensive weapons and an offensive guru at HC or OC: Purdy, Stafford, Tagovailoa, Goff
Tier 7: Good with key offensive weapons and no longer actively detrimental to your team's chance to win: Cousins
Tier 8: Adequate. You're not going to make the playoffs due to them, but you're also not going to effectively tank with them: Minshew, G. Smith, Carr, Mayfield
Tier 9: Who the fuck knows: Watson, Murray
Tier 10: You're kidding yourself, start tanking: Dobbs, Wilson, Fields, Howell, O'Connell, Ridder, Pickett, Jones, Young, Wilson
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Or, put another way, the chances of the stars aligning as such:
1. QB who can make a significant enough impact to get you to the playoffs if you generally suck, or the SB if you're playoff-worthy in all other aspects is available via trade or FA
2. You can successfully beat off competition for him
...is 2 of 15 or maybe 3 of 16, but probably not in any given year (over multiple years, maybe).
Is that better odds than gambling in the draft? Probably. Is that better odds in any given year? Also probably. Is gambling in the draft vs. waiting for someone to appear via FA or trade more likely to appeal to a standard GM's sense of impending doom? Almost certainly.