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I agree mostly. I do think the state of the union ends up mostly washing out. People have short attention spans and tire of scandals unless there are significant updates. The state of the union, Gaza, and 1000 other things will either be forgotten or have far less importance to voters by election day. Republicans can't really run on the Gaza situation because they're all for Israel steamrolling through there at any cost. 7 months from now its u likely to have much, if any, impact.
Abortion and the economy will be the 2 biggest factors in this election. The economy is strong fundamentally but people are still not comfortable with the combination of inflation and shrinkflation we're seeing. Abortion, though, is still killing the GOP. They lost a state seat special election in Alabama by 25 points in a district that Trump won and went +7 to the GOP in 2022 by heavily focusing on reproductive rights.
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