Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand
At the top of yesterday's PFF NFL pod, they discussed Jayden Daniels as a prospect (discussing him possibly at 1.2) and went on an interesting tangent about sack rate.
Takeaways:
-rising wisdom in analytics circles is that sacks are highly QB dependent
-stats from college years seem to be "sticky" rather than fleeting
-best stat seems to be sacks as share of pressures (makes sense)
-young QB taking way too many sacks constitute a huge bundle of NFL flops
-Daniels' numbers in college put him deeply into that danger zone
I know the importance of the "Sense Rush" rating in FOF has been a punchline for a while, but maybe real life is catching up with art in this case.
And... looking at Mr. Sam Howell from last year's actual NFL, there's an interesting case for why that guy, who seems to have a bona fide NFL arm, is a total miss as a starting QB... he just takes way too many sacks, and that kills your offense. (I don't claim to understand how much system fits into this... it seems like "presence of an outlet in the play design" would be another major variable to control for)
Anyway... for those being titillated by Daniels as a prospect, here's an official bright red flag to point back to, perhaps.
|
Did they go through history and show how well that has been a predictor? It seems like you should be able to go pretty far back and compare every first round qb's and compare their stats. It sounds right, but I wonder if it is solidly provable or if there has been outliers.