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Originally Posted by Edward64
The International Energy Agency last week said demand for all three major fossil fuels will peak this decade.
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This would be fantastic news if true. I don't believe it for a second though. I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong. One example of where it could be incorrect:
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EVs account for over 35% of global car sales by 2030, and for more than 50% of sales in China, the European Union and the United States. As a result, the electric car market in 2030 is six-times its size in 2021. This reflects targets to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 36 countries as well as plans by major manufacturers to pivot to EV production.
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This is based on the APS (Announced Pledges Scenario). In other words, people say they're going to do something, so let's assume they will. Unquestionably China has invested heavily in EV; I buy that they will hit their end of this. I buy that the EU will try, and the US will move in that direction, but quite often there's a gap between stated goals for various climate policies and ... what actually happens, for a variety of reasons. Suffice to say that this gap is usually not on the side of 'oops, we actually used fossil fuels less than we said we would' but rather the other way around.
Another interesting factor cited by the IEA in demand is that rising energy prices will actually depress demand in developing countries where people just won't be able to afford it. That's certainly one way to get around the supply issue, and I do think it will happen to some degree, but all it really means is that there still isn't enough affordable energy to go around.