[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Really no idea if Macron's move on increasing retirement age is the right move. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is about 97% so much less than the US 124%.


Wouldn't be surprised if same/similar move will be met with same opposition in the US. Macron may not survive the no confidence.

Been reading up on the French pension reform and increasing the retirement age. First, got a chuckle out of below quote ... sounds familiar.

France has a pension system prized for what politicians call “solidarity between the generations” – whereby the working population pay mandatory payroll charges to fund those in retirement. All French workers get a state pension.

Reading wiki, basically pension reform was one of the things Macron ran on. He paused the issue because of Covid, his party lost some elections, and after Covid subsided, he pushed the issue again. Because he wasn't confident he could get the votes, he invoked constitutional Article 49.3 which allowed him to "pass" the measure (62 to 64 retirement age by 2030) but have to face a no confidence vote.

2023 French pension reform unrest - Wikipedia

Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows governments to bypass the National Assembly and force through bills without a vote. However, invoking it triggers a proviso that allows for no-confidence motions to be filed in the government. On only one occasion, in 1962, where the Article has been triggered has the government lost a subsequent no-confidence motion.[14]

He successfully got past the no confidence vote and it went to the Constitutional Council (somewhat equivalent of SCOTUS) who made some changes but not the big one(s).

Again, really no idea if this is the right move for France. And even though I don't like Macron's "appeasement" reach outs to Russia and China, questionable statements about Taiwan, complaints about ANKUS submarine deal, complaints about the US IRA green/EV policies etc. ...

... I do admire his steadfastness to push through something he feels was right but yet so unpopular. Macron's second term ends in 2027 but will have to wait till 2032 to run for a third term. His party may pay the price in the 2027 elections.

A big question I have is can the next President in 2027 (assuming from the opposition party) overturn this via same Article 49.3?


Some additional notes on the situation

Compared to other European countries, France possesses "one of the lowest rates of pensioners at risk of poverty", with a net pension replacement rate ("a measure of how effectively retirement income replaces prior earnings") of 74%, higher than OECD and EU averages.

From another article, the average French pension is 1,400 euros which is about $1,550. The average US social security check is $1,694. Obviously doesn't reflect cost of living, healthcare etc. but gives some indicative data points.

Macron sought to gradually raise the legal age when workers can start collecting a pension by three months every year until it reaches 64 in 2030

So from 62 to 64 in 6-7 years. A more accelerated schedule than early GOP proposals for the US.

... the cost of pensions has partially contributed to France's national debt rising to 112% of GDP, compared to 98% before the COVID-19 pandemic; this is one of the highest levels in the EU, higher than the UK and Germany.

US is about 124% debt to GDP.

In March 2023, Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt said that "without immediate action" the pensions deficit would exceed $13bn annually by 2027. The government stated that the reforms would "balance the deficit" in 2030, with a surplus amounting to billions of dollars that would "pay for measures allowing those in physically demanding jobs to retire early".[4]

Whereas in the US one can retire early at 62 vs 66/67 but get decreased SS payouts for remainder of life, there doesn't seem to be this option for the French. If there was this option, then may have been a good compromise?