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My question is when do candidates start dropping out. The money simply isn't there to support this many candidates. There is a Mendoza line here somewhere ... I think by the time January rolls around we'll be down to 10 candidates or fewer.
To get the nomination, you almost have to win either Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina. Right now, the leaders in recent polls in those states are Walker, Bush and Graham. Graham's only shot really seems to be to stay relevant until the South Carolina primary and hope for home cooking to keep him alive. Bush and Walker seem to the best positioned to be the top two coming out of South Carolina.
I'm just having a hard time seeing anyone else playing a role other than spoiler.
Given the role of Americans for Prosperity and the Koch family in this part of the country, I'm interested to see at what point they jump in to the race. The Kochs have already stated they plan to spend $1 billion on the 2016 election cycle. So far they say they won't pick a horse in the primary. But Walker has been their guy. If it looks like someone less aligned with AFP goals such as Bush starts pulling away, will they step in?
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