[Chief Rum]

Playoff Picture Update

Things have a habit of getting a clearer from three weeks out to two weeks out, and this is no different. Here's a snapshot look at the division races.

AFC North

Despite the Ravens (9-5) losing and the Steelers (11-3) winning, the division is not wrapped up for the Steelers yet. One more win clinches it, but the Ravens could still conceivably catch the Steelers and would have a better divisionr ecord if they did so.

AFC South

Tennessee (11-3) has won this outright.

AFC East

Buffalo (11-3) has won this outright.

AFC West

Oakland (11-3) has won this outright.

AFC Wildcard

This is one picture that didn't really get much clearer at all. Amazingly enough, all three 7-6 teams--Miami, San Diego and Indianapolis--won their games. What this means is that all of the fringe teams at 6-8 and below have been eliminated. This limits the group we're looking at, but it doesn't make any clearer just who will get the two wildcard spots. Muddying the issue is the fact the Ravens lost their game. The unlikely (and quite frankly unexpected) combination of all three 7-6 teams winning and the Ravens (9-5) losing has put the Ravens at risk of missing the playoffs. They still have the edge, and control their own destiny, but if they lose another game and fall intoa tie with these other teams, one win will no longer be enough.

AFC Home Field & 1st Round Bye

Buffalo's (11-3) loss to Tennessee (11-3) and wins by the other division leaders, Oakland (11-3) and Pittsburgh (11-3) has resulted in a four-way tie. So this is not clear either. If a tie stays in place, Oakland and Tennessee clearly get first round bye, and Oakland likely gets the home field advantage, based on conference records and point differentials. Pittsburgh and Buffalo can still get either prize, though, by finishing ahead of them in overall record.

NFC North

Minnesota (7-7) retakes first place by virtue of a slightly better conference record, but this one is far from over. Both Minnesota and Detroit (7-7) stand at .500, and whoever does better over these last two weeks will take the division. It's a 16-game season reduced to a 2-game stretch.

NFC South

Tampa Bay (11-3) clinched this outright.

NFC East

Both Dallas (9-5) and the NY Giants (8-6) won their games, so this division remains undecided. The two teams meet up in Week SIxteen, and if Dallas wins, they will clinch. If trhe Giants win, though, and the two teams match records after Week 17, this one could go all the way down to point differentials. Right now, the Giants have the edge there (30-14), but that's hardly a safe advantage.

NFC West

The Seahawks (11-3) kept their division title hopes alive by beating the Rams (11-3), but they still need to win out or beat the Rams' overall record outright to take this one. Both teams have clinched playoff spots.

NFC Wildcard

The Falcons (9-5) lost, so they don't have the second wildcard spot tied up yet. Fortunately for them, the Niners (8-6) also lost, so they still have the edge over the other contenders. The losses by the Niners and Falcons allowed the Giants (8-6) to creep within range, so now this looks like a three-team race. The Falcons can still take it simply by winning out, but one of their games is against Tampa Bay. The loser of the NFC West title race has a wildcard spot clinched already.

NFC Home Field & 1st Round Bye

Tampa Bay, by virtue of winning the NFC South, has a first round bye locked up, and will be one of the two teams competing for home field at the end. The other team is still set to come from the NFC West. Both the Rams and the Seahawks have better conference records than Tampa Bay, so the Buccs would likely need to have the best overall record to take home field advantage.

CR