[Chief Rum]

Play Off Picture

AFC North Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Pittsburgh (10-3) @NYJ, SD, @BAL
Baltimore (9-4) @OAK, @CLE, PIT

Obviously, the key game is the season-ending game in Baltimore. That said, the Ravens have to stay within two to even have a chance. If they do, it could be winner take all in the last week.

AFC South Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Tennessee (10-3) BUF, @HOU, TB

Clinched. Tennessee could be tied by record with Indianapolis at the end of the year, but the COlts can't match their division record.

AFC East Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Buffalo (11-2) @TEN, MIA, @NE

Clinched. The Bills wrapped this one up outright this week.

AFC West Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Oakland (10-3) BAL, GB, @SD

Clinched. Like Tennessee, the Raiders could be caugfht by San Diego, but the Chargers can't beat Oakland's divisional record.

AFC Wildcard Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Baltimore (9-4) @OAK, @CLE, PIT
Indianapolis (7-6) ATL, DEN, @HOU
San Diego (7-6) GB, @PIT, OAK
Miami (7-6) PHI, @BUF, NYJ
Jacksonville (6-7) @NE, NO, @ATL
Cincinnati (6-7) SF, @STL, CLE
Kansas City (6-7) DET, @MIN, CHI
New England (5-8) JAX, @NYJ, BUF
Houston (5-8) @TB, TEN, IND
Denver (5-8) CLE, @IND, @GB

Baltimore will lock up at least a wildcard spot with a victory in any of the last three weeks. Cleveland is almost certainly a lock of a win, so Baltimore should be in. That means that no less than nine teams will vie for the other spot. Thelast spot will probably go to one of the 7-6 teams, because it would take all three faltering for one of the 6-7 or 5-8 teams to have a chance. Miami has the easiest schedule, but the worse conference record. With two sub-.500 teams on its schedule, Indy looks like the odds on favorite to grab the other wildcard spot.

AFC Home Field & 1st Round Bye Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Buffalo (11-2) @TEN, MIA, @NE
Oakland (10-3) BAL, GB, @SD
Tennessee (10-3) BUF, @HOU, TB
Pittsburgh (10-3) @NYJ, SD, @BAL
Baltimore (9-4) @OAK, @CLE, PIT

Buffalo obviously has the edge for home field advantage, but it's far from safe. Both Oakland and Tennessee have two-game edges in conference record on Buffalo, which is the first tie breaker. So if Buffalo falters and one of those two catch them, they will get home field. If both of them catch Buffalo, the Bills may even have to host a game in the wildcard round. Pittsburgh either needs Buffalo to fall off, or both of the other division winners to not catch Buffalo (while Pittsburgh passes them up). And, of course, Pittsburgh must beat out Baltimore, which would be an extreme longshot for a home field or a bye.

NFC North Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Detroit (7-6) @KC, @CAR, STL
Minnesota (6-7) @CHI, KC, @ARI

With even the wildcard a bit of a longshot for these teams, the division race is what matters here, in the league's weakest division. Detroit has the game edge, but also has the toughger schedule, with a visit from St. Louis to end the season. The Vikings play three sub-.500 teams.

NFC South Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Tampa Bay (10-3) HOU, ATL, @TEN
Atlanta (9-4) @IND, @TB, JAX

Obviously, the Week 16 matchup is critical for these teams. The Falcons have to go an extra step, though. They will need help from one of the Buccs' other opponents, since the Falcons' poorer divisional record means they have to win the division outright to take it. Fortunately for Atlanta, a visit to Tennessee is a tough way for the Buccs to end a season.

NFC East Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Dallas (8-5) @WAS, NYG, @NO
New York Giants (7-6) @NO, @DAL, CAR

Another division that may be settled mano y mano. The winner of the Week 16 matchup will likely take the division, although the Giants may still need help even if they win, while the Cowboys will essentially clinch with a win there.

NFC West Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

St. Louis (11-2) SEA, CIN, @DET
Seattle (10-3) @STL, ARI, @SF

Week 15 sets the first stage. The Seahawks must win to stay alive. The Rams can clinch simply by winning that game. If the Seahawks beat the Rams, then they must either beat out the Rams outright ( i.e. the Rams need to lose another game), or the Seahawks need to win their last two as well to match divisional records in case of a tie.

NFC Wildcard Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

Seattle (10-3) @STL, ARI, @SF
Atlanta (9-4) @IND, @TB, JAX
San Francisco (8-5) @CIN, @PHI, SEA
New York Giants (7-6) @NO, @DAL, CAR
Minnesota (6-7) @CHI, KC, @ARI

Unlike the AFC, there is a clear pecking order here. Seattle clearly has the inside track on the first wildcard spot, although two losses with two SF wins in Weeks 15-16 could produce an interesting head-to-head play for the playoff spot in Week 17 between the two teams. Likewise, Atlanta has the edge for the second spot, albeit not as safe a one. The Giants and Vikings would need some seriosu help to get a shot at this, and should probably more count on their divisions than on getting in as a wildcard.

NFC Home Field & 1st Round Bye Wk 15, Wk 16, Wk 17

St. Louis (11-2) SEA, CIN, @DET
Tampa Bay (10-3) HOU, ATL, @TEN
Seattle (10-3) @STL, ARI, @SF
Atlanta (9-4) @IND, @TB, JAX

This one is also much clearer. Neither the winner of the NFC East nor the NFC North will have a shot at home field advantage or the bye. So, the byes will go to the winners of the NFC West and the NFC South, both of which have yet to be decided. And the best of those two division champs will get home field. The Rams have the edge over the Buccaneers among the current division leades, thanks to record. The Rams also have the advantage in divisional record. Neither team has an easy road down the stretch.

CR