[Chief Rum]

We have 22 players. Let's say the breakdown of murderers to villagers is similar to other games, we're looking at 5-7 murderers, adjusted somewhat for possible conversions or cultist type roles.

With (41%) of the players comprised of Extra Roles, it seems unlikely that none of the 6 murderers are in that group. It seems likely that two of that group (at least) will be murderers, and a decent chance at three.

But that means it's likely we have 3-4 among the 13 currently in the house.

if we rule out the Informants and Extras as possible murderers, that would mean half to more than half of the Big Six are likely murderers. That seems to be a rather inauspicious grouping of murderers within one group. It would be pretty difficult for a Big Six player to get away with being a murderer, since we would kill any Big Six player we find (just on the odds).

I don't think CW would design his game that way, so that tells me that Informants and Extras can start as murderers as well. Maybe they can't be converted, but they can start there.

All that said, it does seem to be to our advantage to find the Big Six and eliminate them, as that seems to be a village strategy that has better odds of working out for us. Unless all of our best roles are with them (possible).