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Old 12-12-2012, 03:40 PM   #479
Chief Rum
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
JAG
DaddyTorgo
Zinto
Abe Sargent
Autumn
Chief Rum
mauboy1

The above are the remaining players in the game. The key is to find the last wolf. Let's do some figuring.

Zinto has been scanned by the known seer and confirmed good.

Abe and I are in a tussle over the BG spot. Even if you don't believe me on that, we all seem to agree neither of us are the last wolf.

That leaves four possibilities for wolf: DT, JAG, Autumn and mauboy1.

At this point, let me present my theory on what happened Monday night. You'll have to accept my assertion that I am the BG and did not submit a BG protection that night.

There was no BG block, but no kill. How could this happen? I can only think of three ways:

1) No kill order was submitted.
2) The kill target was dead
3) The kill target was the Sceptic.

I am throwing out #1. Crimson Fox was around on Day One and I do not believe someone as active as he is would leave for work for the night without submitting a kill order. That leaves #2 or #3. In the case of #2, Simbo Klice was lynched, so he would have had to be the kill target for there not to be a kill. This is possible--CF actually voted for Simbo Klice. #3 is possible, but I consider it unlikely, since I believe Abe is the Sceptic. I don't think Abe the wolf would make the counter-reveal play he is doing now.

So I think Scenario #2 is by far the likeliest reason for no Night One kill. CF was at work, so he could not change his kill order. So that means the other wolf needed to be present to change that order when GE's reveal put the lynch target on Simbo Klice, in order for a kill to happen.

Since a kill didn't happen, I presume the wolf wasn't present for GE's reveal and the turn on Simbo.

That brings us back to our four: DT, JAG, Autumn and mauboy1.

We know DT and JAG were around. They changed their votes to save GE. They are not the last wolf.

That leaves Autumn and mauboy1 as the possible last wolf.

mauboy1 was not around at all for Day One. Autumn as, but stepped out during the key revelation by GE, by his own admission. So both were not around, and either could be the last wolf.

I am leaning toward Autumn being the last wolf. Why? Because the Sceptic (Abe) voted for Autumn on Day One. He in fact opened up all voting by voting Autumn. It has been a tactic in the past for the cultist role to vote a wolf to try to tip off the wolves to who he is. Abe kept his vote on Autumn all day, until finally switching to Simbo Klice in the rush to save GE.

So I believe the last wolf is Autumn.

VOTE AUTUMN
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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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