Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord
For what it's worth, if the track turns to slop, I'm digging Super Saver and Line of David as decent picks. Both look like they can break fast.
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As a general rule, I think looking for early speed on a sloppy track makes sense.
Here, not so sure. I think there's something to the notion that we probably have 5-8 horses in this field who really don't want to find out if their untested horse can handle getting mud all over his face... and so they might have extra incentive to try to push toward the lead early. If that happens, we might see what already looks to me (just IMHO) like a bunch of cheap speed looking even cheaper than usual.
I'll also point out in particular that I'm troubled by LINE OF DAVID's one muddy workout, which was unimpressive. Prior to that on April 26, he had never been run for a documented work on an off track -- suggesting that his handlers don't think that's the sort of going that he will favor. I think that sets him up as even more likely to be a one-run speedball in this race, and in my view, even more likely now that he is completely cooked by the second turn. No, throwing out a 30-1 longshot isn't really exciting handicapping... but that's my unsolicited thinking.
And, I will volunteer that I have followed racing so little this year than none of my views are very well founded. If my recent patterns with fantasy sports follow suit, this means I am a lock for at least a trifecta ticket.