Quote:
Originally Posted by Mota
I don't necessarily disagree with you here, but the MLB draft is notoriously unpredictable. There's tons of players that have made it from the lower rounds, and a laundry list of guys that got drafted high and never even cracked the majors. Scouts are often wrong.
I think that your A analysis is quite fair. Don't use one source to determine your draft pick. You analyze a number of factors and make your decisions that way. I'm sure that in real life, GM's read the draft rankings and cross-index to their scout data before making up their minds.
I do miss having multiple scouts though. That way it gives you a better indicator that your head scout may be out to lunch, if all your other scouts are rating a player 1* and he is giving him 5*.
Hopefully with the added stats for prospects (hopefully that give you real indicators and not just random stats), the OSA rankings and your head scout ranking, you can have an idea of whether a prospect is good or not. It reminds me of FOF, if you just look at the bars it is extremely misleading, you have to look at the overrated / underrated, the combine scores etc PLUS the bars to help you determine things.
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There is no way that scouting directors are using Baseball America to inform their decisions. They are using things like Baseball America as a tool of misinformation so that the other teams don't know what players they are really on.
I guess I'm not getting my point across very well. I'm not saying that my scout isn't accurate enough and I'm not saying that I should have some unrealistic amount of success in the draft no matter how much I spend.
A: I shouldn't be able to use OSA to be certain which of the 4 5* players I should draft.
B: I shouldn't be able to tease out by who the other teams are drafting the players that my scout has not only rated incorrectly, but has rated high by multiple standard deviations.
C: If you the 3rd or 4th player on your scout's board in every round (except the first 5 picks of the draft), you will end up with better prospects then if you pick the player your scout likes best. This is because it is much more likely that those players are scouted appropriately.
It isn't a question of accuracy, it isn't a question of attrition of prospects - it's a clear design flaw with the logic around drafting players with scouts on.