Quote:
Originally Posted by miked
I'm sleep deprived from a sick baby, but I still don't really get Lynch's message. In his brief test there, his high paid, high rated scout was much more accurate than the OSA, if I'm reading it correctly. Like I said, I'm in a fog, but I'd like it explained to me in the usual condescending way Jim is so good at. Please?
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What worse? Condescending or passive-aggressive?
Let's say I'm picking first in that draft. My scout identifies 4 5* prospects. Based on why my scout told me, the best prospect is the ridiculously rated middle infielder. However, I can go to the internet, punch up Baseball America (OSA) and I know exactly which of the 4 to select, and of those 4 players only one of them is actually a good prospect (the starting pitcher - which is obvious when you look at the OSA ratings).
Let's say I'm picking 11th in that draft. Then I watch 10 teams pass on a 5* first base prospect who my scout thinks is a future HOFer. So, even without OSA, I know that my scout is wrong, because I know that the way scouting works in OOTP - it's never the outlier who is right, if you are the outlier you are always wrong. It happens in almost every round of a solo league with scouting on. There will be one or two players who are much better who all the other teams are passing on - and it's obvious why they are passing - it's my scout who is wrong.
So to successfully build a team in OOTP playing solo with scouting on the best strategy is to:
A. Use OSA to determine which of your scouts grades are legitimate
and
B. If you are picking outside of the first 5 picks in the first round, you NEVER want to pick the player your scout says is best.
It takes 5 minutes to set up a league and 30 minutes to simulate a half dozen drafts to see that if you have the best scout, budget the money for scouting amateurs and then actually follow the scout's recommendations you end up with one dogshit draft after another.
As for discussing this 15 years, I think this is only the second time I've ever posted about the issue in depth and I'm pretty sure the other time was on the OOTP board.